After three games in 12 days, a pair of brutal losses and a gut-it-out win at the Houston Texans, the next Dallas Cowboys game on Sunday comes after a ten day rest. Unfortunately, even this break hasn’t felt long enough to forget about the most recent game from last Thursday night.
Al Michaels called the Cowboys home game against the winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers a “can’t lose” game instead of a “must win”. Well, the Cowboys did lose in lackluster fashion, and now are approaching that “must win” territory
so much earlier than we ever could have imagined for this 2026 season.
The next opportunity to win comes back in primetime, at Lambeau Field against the Green Bay Packers. The Cowboys only managed to throw a clunky tie in the record books between these historic franchises last season, but prior to that had lost 10 of the last 11 (including playoffs) to the Packers.
That win did come on the road for Dallas though, all the way back in Dak Prescott’s rookie season of 2016. The Cowboys won their fifth straight game out of eleven in week six in Green Bay, 30-16. They would finish with 13 wins, still the high water mark of Prescott’s career, but go one and done in the playoffs in a rematch against the Packers at home in the Divisional round.
That playoff loss to the Packers set the Cowboys back to where they were out of the playoffs the following season. The Cowboys also lost to the Packers in the 2023 Wild Card round, have yet to make the playoffs since, and will see their chances of doing so for a third season in a row plummet if they can’t get their first win against the Packers in a decade this Sunday night.
Probably the most surprising thing happening to the 2026 Cowboys right now is the way going from Matt Eberflus to Christian Parker as defensive coordinator has not improved even the fundamentals of defense this team is playing through five games.
The bar is incredibly low for Parker’s defense to have a better outing against the Packers compared to last year’s Eberflus experience, with the 40 points allowed through overtime being the second most surrendered that season (44 twice, to the Broncos and Lions, being the most).
The Packers scored on every one of their second half and overtime possessions in last year’s primetime meeting. The Cowboys started the game offensively with three straight punts as well, and even though they turned a 13-0 deficit into a 16-13 halftime lead, managing only a field goal sealed their fate in overtime. Jordan Love’s last-second throw to the end zone for a chance at the win was knocked away by Jack Sanborn. The one second remaining after this defensive stand allowed the Packers to kick the tying 34-yard field goal as the overtime clock expired.
Third down differential was a major problem for the Cowboys in this tie, going 4-11 on offense and allowing the Packers to convert 10-14. Last week, the Packers managed to beat the Bears 31-7 despite going 4-12 on third down, forcing the Bears in 14 attempts with the same four conversions. The Cowboys were 4-10 against the Buccaneers while surrendering 7-13 to an undrafted rookie quarterback.
Carson Wentz and Michael Penix Jr. are the two quarterbacks to beat the Packers so far this year, while Matt LaFleur’s team’s wins have come against a Tyson Bagent led Bears team, Jalon Daniels in his first start for the Bucs, and the Geno Smith Jets.
It stands to reason that Prescott will be the best quarterback the Jonathan Gannon coordinated Packers defense has faced this season. It also stands to reason that Cowboys fans are flat-out tired of trying to talk themselves into Prescott alone being enough to will this team to victory, certainly not with how many things are going wrong on both defense and special teams at the moment.
The remedy for all of this could lie in the finer details of how Penix and the Falcons got a surprise Thursday night win at Lambeau, as well as the Vikings with Wentz at home in the season opener. Starting with the only team to win on the road at the Packers so far this year, the Falcons outrushed the Packers 242-17. They had 15 of their 25 total first downs come on the ground. Atlanta averaged 5.9 yards a rush, while the Packers only ran the ball nine times for 1.9 yards on average. Bijan Robinson went for 194 yards and scored twice while Brian Robinson also added a touchdown.
The Vikings also leaned on a pair of running backs to control the game against the Packers, Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones. Mason led the way with 59 yards on 15 carries and a score, while Jones had 40 yards on 12 carries also with a touchdown. Both teams averaged 3.1 yards a carry, but the Vikings outrushed the Packers 107-66 and went 4-4 in the red zone while holding the Packers to 1-4. The Packers got forced into another unfavorable run/pass split, having Love drop back 42 times compared to 21 runs.
To tie this all back to where we started, that 2016 win for the Cowboys at the Packers, the run game had a strong influence as well. Rookie Ezekiel Elliott had a new career high in this game with 157 yards on 28 totes. Prescott was comfortable the entire game as a result, throwing for a gaudy 9.1 yards per attempt, racking up 247 yards, and three touchdowns. Dallas jumped ahead 20-6 and put Green Bay passer Aaron Rodgers in position to throw 42 times compared to 24 rushing attempts, the majority of which went to Eddie Lacy.
Among the things that feel the absolute most fixable coming off the Buccaneers loss for the Cowboys, not running the ball enough has to top the list. The Cowboys came out and welcomed Tyler Smith back to the lineup at left guard by leaning on the run all the way for an opening drive Javonte Williams touchdown, but went away from this approach after the very first sign of the Bucs being able to control the ball themselves. To make matters worse, the Cowboys didn’t get the short passing game going as a response either until it was too late.
The offense will need both to beat the Packers, and if nothing else cool down the hot seat underneath Brian Schottenheimer right now. The Jason Garrett comparisons for Schotty have not come favorably here in the early going of 2026, but right now things feel so desperate that getting the Garrett-esque team that won at Lambeau in 2016 would be a major win for Schotty’s team in ‘26.
The Packers passing offense is going to like their matchup against the Cowboys secondary if they can build momentum and get on the field in as many neutral situations as possible. The Cowboys simply cannot forget about the run game this week, and doing so could let enough other things fall into place to bring hope back to this season at 3-3.
To do so, the Cowboys are looking to hand the Packers their earliest second home loss since 2022. Their only losing season under LaFleur, Green Bay lost back to back games to the New York franchises in weeks five and six at home, the last loss coming on October 16th – two days before the Cowboys and Packers are set to battle for the 41st-ever time this weekend.
Dallas is also looking to avoid back-to-back primetime losses for the first time since 2020, to the Arizona Cardinals and Philadelphia Eagles.
