Project 2028: The motivation behind a Luka Doncic return to Dallas

On June 17, 2024, the Mavericks walked off the floor in Boston disappointed, but hopeful for the future. They had just made the NBA Finals for the first time since their fateful win in 2011, and although it was sad to see them lose, everything pointed to them being back sooner rather than later. They retooled that summer, got hot in late November, and suited up to play the Timberwolves that Christmas. Luka Doncic had battled some injuries that fall, but he was healthy on Christmas Day. Until he wasn’t.

Doncic exited the game in the first half with a calf injury and never put a Mavericks uniform on again.

He is a Laker now. He has turned the page and played some of the best basketball of his career on the West Coast. But despite the fact that he plays in another city, it’s worth asking whether his heart is still in North Texas. In fact, it’s even worth asking if he’d ever return to North Texas and play for the Mavericks again. As my co-contributor Tyler Edsel and I have found, there is evidence to suggest he would, and we are going to lay out why and how that would happen. 

The Motivation

As we approach a year and a half since the trade, the number of motivating factors to push Doncic out of his foster home has increased tenfold. Let’s start with the reason anyone wants to play anywhere: winning. Doncic’s Lakers just got ousted in the second round via a sweep by the Thunder, giving them one playoff series win in the last two seasons. Of those three series, Doncic has played in just one: a five-game loss to the Timberwolves last year. To say he is motivated by winning in the postseason would be an understatement, and since being traded to the Lakers, he hasn’t done that. Through no fault of his own, I might add. 

And how do the Lakers turn around the disappointment of the last two seasons? Well, it starts with the roster. The roster building has been pinned to this offseason for quite some time. A person from the Slovenian superstar’s camp has said: “Ever since the trade, they’ve always told us: ‘summer of ’26. We’ll show you in the summer of ’26”. Well, it is the summer of ‘26. The Lakers have lost key pieces like Marcus Smart, Luke Kennard, Jaxson Hayes and likely Rui Hachimura. They have re-signed DeAndre Ayton and traded two unprotected first-round picks and $130 million over four years for center Walker Kessler, who has played just 63 games in the last two seasons. Not to mention, LeBron James has already stated his intent to play elsewhere.

In terms of additions, Collin Sexton, Quentin Grimes, and Sandro Mamukelashvili have signed multi-year deals with the team. Austin Reaves was just re-signed to a max contract, and while he is a similar fit alongside Doncic to NBA Finals teammate Kyrie Irving, the pieces around them do not compare. The Lakers have, effectively, one or two wings, and their bench leaves much to be desired. They will have to thread the needle for the next four months to build a better roster while they allocate north of 80 percent of the salary cap to Doncic, Reaves, and Kessler.

As long as Doncic is on the team, the Lakers will be good. We saw that with the Mavericks from 2020 to 2022. But good teams do not win championships. Doncic is entering his age-28 season, and the clock is ticking on his prime. The Lakers have effectively reset his career to 2021 or so with the roster they have assembled. He will be 29 by the time free agency in 2028 rolls around and his current contract is up. Depending on how the next two seasons go, Doncic could get disgruntled with the team he never asked to be on in the first place. 

If he were to ever leave Los Angeles, he could theoretically go anywhere. But we know how much Dallas means to him. And now the Mavericks have the guy to make playing here again enticing. Cooper Flagg is a fantastic fit alongside Doncic and will only be 21 years old during the summer of 2028. The regime that ultimately threw him out will have been long gone, and time heals all wounds created by an oblivious owner. Doncic has said that Dallas will always be home, and that doesn’t leave you in a few years. He knows that he will be welcomed with open arms and given a chance at redemption.

Right now, this is all posturing. There are fragments here and there that you can piece together, but no real smoke. There is kindling for a fire, however. And starting with this summer, there is a real path to ignite the purple and gold in flames by the time Doncic has a chance to jump ship.

Come back tomorrow for part two in this series.