The Los Angeles Lakers still have a lot left to play for. Although 60 games are already in the books, the upcoming final weeks of the regular season possess a choose-your-own-adventure number of outcomes for their playoff position. If they have a switch to flip, now is the time do it.
Smack dab in the middle of the battle royale that is the Western Conference postseason picture, the Lakers are clinging to the sixth seed. But that could change fast.
Despite their recent skid, the Lakers remain in reach
of finishing with home-court advantage as they are only 1.5 games behind the third spot. However, things can also go south if their mediocre play continues. Following their brutal loss to the shorthanded Suns, Los Angeles now holds only a two-game lead over Phoenix.
With little margin for error, the difference between a strong playoff standing and the play-in tournament will be decided from every game here on out. And if the Lakers want the former result, they will need to do something they haven’t been able to do all year — beat good teams.
According to Positive Residual, the Lakers have the third-toughest remaining schedule among Western Conference teams and fourth-toughest overall.
If that wasn’t daunting enough, the stiff competition they will face carries added weight, as it is composed almost entirely of the same teams jostling for playoff positioning.
The Lakers will go head-to-head with the clubs they’re currently sandwiched between in Minnesota and Phoenix. Additionally, they also have two pivotal matchups remaining against Houston, Denver and Oklahoma City each.
Given how bunched up everyone still is, tiebreakers will likely play a big role in determining the final playoff bracket.
For example, despite still having one game remaining against Phoenix, the Lakers have already lost the season series to the Suns, a result of the two sides playing an extra time this season during the NBA Cup knockout rounds. Conversely, thanks to their two early-season wins against Minnesota, the Lakers have notched the season series over the Timberwolves. Tiebreakers against Houston and Denver are still up for grabs.
It may sound like hyperbole, but this is why the Lakers’ entire season could come down to how they fare in these eight games. A proposition that feels ominous given how they’ve performed against the upper echelon of the league this season.
Despite their solid record, especially given the context of the number of injuries they’ve endured this year, the skepticism surrounding the Lakers’ championship odds has centered on their inability to hang in their marquee matchups.
Los Angeles has a stellar 23-7 record against teams under .500. However, they are only 13-17 in their matchups with teams over .500. That is the worst mark among the top six teams in the West.
What is arguably even more concerning than their poor record is how they have performed in these contests. This is because they have not just lost, but they have rarely even been competitive.
According to Cleaning the Glass, the Lakers have the fourth-worst net rating (-12.9) against teams currently in the top 10 in point differential. It is worth noting that the only teams worse — Washington, Brooklyn and Utah — are actively trying to lose.
An optimist could point to the Lakers being without their big three in most of these games as a reason for the disappointing results. On the season, the trio of Luka Dončić, LeBron James and Austin Reaves has played in just 870 possessions together.
Detractors could counter by highlighting the trio’s barely positive net rating (+1.3) when they have played, and the Lakers’ struggles against better competition as just proof of the gap between them and the elite. This is a team whose record was built upon feasting against bottomfeeders.
Regardless of the reality of their situation, the Lakers are about to be presented with an opportunity to change their narrative surrounding them and, in the process, restore the belief in themselves ahead of the postseason.
The initial momentum the Lakers played with earlier in the year has all but abandoned them. There’s an undeniable funk they have to rid themselves of, and that starts by winning. Their blowout victories against the Golden State Warriors and Sacramento Kings were steps in the right direction, but it has to continue now before it is gone for good.
While the Lakers were never likely to win the championship this year, they can still give themselves the best odds by finding their groove right now. The very same teams they will have to leap in the standings and eventually beat in the playoffs are coming their way.
Whether they care to or even can, it’s time the Lakers prove they are not what everyone says they are.
All stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass unless otherwise stated. You can follow Alex on Bluesky at @alexregla.bsky.social.
