NBA Season Preview: Standings, playoff, and award predictions

It’s finally Opening Day on the 2025-26 NBA season. Here’s our own Marc Delucchi’s predictions for the season.

Western Conference

1. Oklahoma City Thunder (65-17)
   I originally had the Thunder winning 70+ games, banking on the reigning champions improving given the youth and continuity on the roster. However, the depth of the Western Conference makes it difficult to project any team would do it. Still, they are so clearly the most talented and deepest roster in the league.
2. Denver Nuggets (54-28)
   On paper, this is the best roster Nikola Jokić has had since the Nuggets championship run. There’s a 60-win scenario where Jamal Murray has a great year and Cam Johnson gets a massive boost next to Jokić, but this team is old enough that it seems more likely to be a 50-55 win team that tries to save their best punches for the playoffs.
3. Minnesota Timberwolves (52-30)
   The Wolves are the only top Western Conference team that got worse on paper over the offseason, losing Nickel Alexander-Walker without making any noteworthy additions. They are banking on internal development from young role players and starters to make up for the difference. While I’m skeptical they have the pieces for a postseason run, none of those questions translate to the regular season. Barring an injury to Anthony Edwards, I’d be very surprised if Minnesota isn’t once again in the 50-win range. Podziemski and Moody
4. Golden State Warriors (51-31)
   If the Warriors were any younger, I’d have them even with Nuggets. Since age will likely limit their best players to 60-70 games in the best scenarios, they fall a tier in the regular season. Brandin Podziemski and Jonathan Kuminga were two favorites for Most Improved Player heading into last season. While that didn’t pan out, Podziemski, Moses Moody, and Kuminga all still have the promise of impact players and have reached an age where making a postseason impact is more reasonable an expectation. Most importantly, Steph Curry looks refreshed this preseason and Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green, and Al Horford were still impactful last season.
5. Los Angeles Clippers (49-35)
   The Clippers are a roster full of high-quality players, but a long list of injury questions make it hard for me to bank on them as a 50+ win team. You can argue the Warriors are in a similar space, but I am far more confident Golden State’s best player will play at least 65 games.
6. San Antonio Spurs (46-36)
   I believe in Victor Wembanyama catapulting into the top-five of the MVP conversation and while I think the rest of the Spurs roster is too flawed to be a true title contender, usurping the play-in seems very much in play. This is banking on the health of a unicorn who just missed significant time, but I’m optimistic.
7. Houston Rockets (45-37)
   The Rockets added Kevin Durant, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Clint Capela this offseason coming off a 52-win campaign. However, I was lukewarm on their regular-season chances to improve prior to Fred Van Vleet’s injury. Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks are flawed, but they were also significant contributors for Houston last season and played in nearly every game. Kevin Durant is far better than both of them, but he is unlikely to be as available. Add in Van Vleet’s injury and I think the floor for the Rockets team is just significantly lower. Alperen Şengün building on his excellent EuroBasket could make me look incredibly stupid, but I’m low on the Rockets.
8. Portland Trail Blazers (43-39)
   While San Antonio is getting plenty of love, the Blazers are my sleeper in the West. I believe in their strong finish last season and am optimistic that Shaedon Sharpe’s impressive preseason is legit. This team has a glut of promising young players who are experienced enough to make legitimate contributions and has shown a willingness to play hard every night. Add in the veteran stewardship of Jrue Holiday and Damian Lillard and I think Portland is play-in bound.
9. Dallas Mavericks (42-40)
   The Mavericks have plenty of injury questions, but their frontcourt depth is among the best in the league and Cooper Flagg is a rare rookie capable of making positive contributions on both ends of the floor. A lot of pressure is on D’Angelo Russell, Klay Thompson, and Max Christie, particularly early in the season, but that’s a trio of solid players even if they’re flawed.
10. Los Angeles Lakers (40-42)
    The Lakers roster after Luka Dončić, LeBron James, and Austin Reaves is undeniably atrocious. James starting the season sidelined with sciatica makes me think there’s a real chance he’s a non-factor this season. If that’s the case, Los Angeles will putting all their faith in Luka to carry them, when he barely carried Mavericks teams with better complimentary pieces to 50 wins. Also, Luka’s appeared in more than 66 games in a season just twice in his career.
11. Memphis Grizzlies (38-44)
    The Grizzlies are starting the season injured and Ja Morant’s erratic history makes it hard to believe they will end up healthy. There’s enough talent to keep them from a full collapse, but they seem like a team that could get interested in falling into the lottery after the All-Star break.
12. New Orleans Pelicans (36-46)
    The Pelicans have a lot of good players, but no point guard. There’s a world where Zion Williamson puts it all together and a Dejounte Murray return helps them sneak into the playoffs, but a frustrating and inconsistent year only made worse by not having a first-round pick in next year’s draft seems like the outcome we’re headed for.
13. Phoenix Suns (36-46)
    It’s going to be bad and mediocre. Even as someone who is holding out hope for Jalen Green, I don’t see how the environment around him will spark his development in the right direction.
14. Sacramento Kings (28-54)
    The Kings roster is full of NBA players who could help specific contenders, but seemingly none of them help the Kings. I’m high on the young players on the roster, but they are ultimately buried by a glut of proven vets who don’t fit together and are probably going to cause problems if their roles diminish. This seems like a team that will be below .500 and then trade as many veterans as they can before the deadline/
15. Utah Jazz (20-62)
    Ace Bailey and Walter Clayton Jr. looked like some exciting rookies this preseason and Lauri Markkanen is still around. The Jazz could quietly be building an exciting nucleus. But they are far from relevance.

Play-In Tournament
Rockets over Blazers
Lakers over Mavericks
Lakers over Blazers

First Round
Thunder over Lakers (4-1)
Nuggets over Rockets (4-2)
Spurs over Wolves (4-3)
Warriors over Clippers (4-0)

Conference Semifinals
Warriors over Thunder (4-2)
Nuggets over Spurs (4-0)

Conference Finals
Nuggets over Warriors (4-2)

Eastern Conference

1. Atlanta Hawks (57-25)
   I’m all-in on the Hawks for a few reasons. Trae Young quietly began showing improved effort defensively and a willingness to play off ball under Quin Snyder. Jalen Johnson, Zaccharie Risacher, Dyson Daniels, and Onyeka Okongwu all had impressive stretches last season with plenty of room for additional growth. They added Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Kristaps Porzingis this offseason, who perfectly addressed the biggest holes on the roster.
   When you add in the Hawks collection of draft picks, including the better of the Bucks and Pelicans first-round pick in 2026 and the lesser of the two in 2027, and rookie first-round pick Asa Newell, I believe Atlanta is incredibly well positioned to make the Bucks a trade offer at the deadline for Giannis Antetokounmpo that’s too good for Milwaukee to refuse. Despite the challenges of an in-season trade, the deadline would be the last chance the Hawks have to acquire Giannis and offer him the supermax.
   Even without any blockbuster deals, I think the Hawks have the highest ceiling of any team in the Eastern Conference. However, for this prediction, I expect them to be on a 50-win pace when they add Giannis in February before a dominant stretch run.
2. New York Knicks (55-27)
   Mike Brown isn’t the new Knicks coach because of regular-season expectations, but they enter the season with one of the two most talented rosters in the conference and are basically bringing back their entire rotation except with several solid veteran additions, particularly Guerschon Yabusele. They won’t be going all out in the regular-season, but they won’t have to to end up with 50-60 wins in the East.
3. Cleveland Cavaliers (52-30)
   The Bulls bailed the Cavs out of a difficult offseason situation by sending them Lonzo Ball for Isaac Okoro, but I still see Cleveland as a big regression candidate. Everything seemingly went right for the Cavs in route to 64 wins last season, and the deflating Conference Semifinals loss is going to be a hard emotional pill to bounce back from. The Cavs also had excellent injury luck last season, which is a hard thing to bank on. They remain one of the most talented teams in the East and should still coast to 50 wins, but with little ability to make mid-season changes via trade thanks to the second apron rules, I see Cleveland regressing from great to very good in the regular season.
4. Orlando Magic (48-34)
   Health remains a question for a roster full of players who have missed extended time, but the most tenacious defense in the conference added Desmond Bane’s outside shooting, which should add a much needed dimension to their attack. I do worry that Bane will slump given the pressure and supporting cast that offers far less spacing than Memphis, but the development of Orlando’s young core should still be enough to take another step forward even if Bane is more solid than very good.
5. Detroit Pistons (46-36)
   Both Ausar Thompson and Cade Cunningham could take massive leaps this year and turn the Pistons into a legitimate conference contender, but development isn’t linear and I think the loss of Malik Beasley is going to be more impactful than expected.
6. Toronto Raptors (43-39)
   The Raptors are caught in no man’s land with a lot of solid and good players on very good and All-Star level contracts. Still, that doesn’t change the fact that they have a bunch of talent in a conference devoid of it. They remain thin at point guard, putting a lot of pressure on Immanuel Quickley’s health, but the rest of the roster is surprisingly deep.
7. Miami Heat (41-41)
   Tyler Herro is starting the season sidelined, and that makes… Andrew Wiggins? Miami’s top scoring option to start this season. This feels like a year where Bam Adebayo or Herro could legitimately be shopped at the deadline, but that would be a big change of pace for Pat Riley. Assuming they try, they have enough to be a .500 team.
8. Indiana Pacers (39-45)
   If it was just Tyrese Haliburton who was out, I could convince myself that Andrew Nembhard will be the Most Improve Player and the Pacers will be surprisingly good, but the additional loss of Myles Turner makes it too difficult for me to buy in. I do think Pascal Siakam and the otherwise returning supporting cast will be too competent to fully tank, but they will be fighting for a play-in spot.
9. Milwaukee Bucks (38-44)
   I actually like the shooting on Milwaukee’s roster around Giannis, but there is little star power and room for error amidst massive pressure from the trade rumors surrounding the franchise icon. I think they are at a 45 win pace in February and take a massive step back after he’s traded.
10. Philadelphia 76ers (37-45)
    Lots of fun players on the roster, but who is going to play on any given night? We’ll see.
11. Chicago Bulls (35-47)
    Say hello to your Eastern Conference Sacramento Kings.
12. Boston Celtics (35-47)
    This team is already angling to get under the luxury tax, meaning they are going to get worse during the season, and I’d be shocked if they let Jayson Tatum play. This reads like an intentional tank year.
13. Charlotte Hornets (29-53)
    There are some young players who have put up numbers with Charlotte, but none have looked like winning players and I don’t see their moves this offseason changing that.
14. Washington Wizards (20-62)
    I like the Wizards young nucleous, but there’s no one who seems like a superstar-caliber prospect, and that’s what Washington needs to take a big step forward in the standings. They will probably be bad, but that might be okay, assuming the young players continue to make progress.
15. Brooklyn Nets (12-70)
    Hard to think of a time I have been less interested in watching a basketball team. Please get Nic Claxton to a contender before the end of the season.
    

Play-In Tournament
Pacers over Heat
Bulls over Bucks
Heat over Bulls

First Round
Hawks over Heat (4-0)
Knicks over Sixers (4-1)
Cavs over Pacers (4-2)
Pistons over Magic (4-2)

Conference Semifinals
Hawks over Pistons (4-2)
Knicks over Cavs (4-2)

Conference Finals
Hawks over Knicks (4-2)

NBA Finals
Hawks over Nuggets (4-3)

MVP: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Most Improved Player: Victor Wembanyama
Defensive Player of the Year: Victor Wembanyama
Coach of the Year: Quin Snyder
Rookie of the Year: Cooper Flagg
Sixth Man of the Year: Chris Paul