For the last 10 days, Maryland has been encased in a covering of frozen snow perpetuated by near constant freezing temperatures. The feeling of being imprisoned by the winter months is something most baseball fans share, as they wait for the offseason to thaw into the renewed hope that comes with spring and the start of a new season.
The feeling of being stuck in an unending cold stretch is also something all too familiar to Orioles fans. Over the last 24 months, Birdland has watched as the O’s plummeted
from the top of the American League to the bottom of the AL East. Over the last season and a half, it’s seemed like the Orioles couldn’t get out of their own way as the stars that form the core of this franchise played like their feet were stuck in blocks of ice.
But just like the temperatures will eventually turn and melt away the snowcrete, there is hope that the coming 2026 season will melt away the Orioles’ previous shortcomings. After all, the Orioles are projected to have the best offense in the American League! Newly signed star slugger Pete Alonso is preparing the rest of the team for the glory that comes after “the storm and the war!” And surely more reinforcement for the starting rotation is on the way!
Despite having a solid B+ offseason up to this point, the O’s will need to shake off ongoing slumps if they want to truly have a successful 2026. Here are three cold streaks the Orioles will look to break during the upcoming season:
1. Adley Rutschman’s injury-riddled slump
For the last four seasons, the Orioles go as Adley Rutschman goes. From his debut in May of 2022 through June 2024, Rutschman was one of the best catchers in baseball. Over those first 300+ games of his career, the former No. 1 overall pick hit .274, had an OPS above .800 and provided Gold Glove caliber defense. In short, he was everything the Orioles hoped he’d be when they drafted him in 2019.
During that same time, the Orioles’ performance skyrocketed. After being baseball’s worst for the four seasons prior to Rutschman’s arrival, the O’s went 221-147 from his debut through the end of June 2024. That .601 winning percentage translates to a 97-win pace over 162 games—a mark that would have led the American League each of the last two seasons.
All of that seemed to change when Rutschman fouled a ball off his hand in the series opener against the Rangers during the last series of June 2024. The unfortunate foul ball didn’t land him on the IL, but for the rest of the season, it seemed like the Orioles’ All-Star backstop was always playing through pain. Across July, August and September, his offensive output fell off a cliff, with the backstop’s batting average dropping 100 points and his OPS more than 250 points.
After a demoralizing end to 2024 that saw the Orioles swept out of the playoffs for the second year in a row, Rutschman came into last season with a seemingly renewed sense of purpose. A noticeably slimmer and more muscular Rutschman dominated in spring training and looked set to return to his All-Star form. Then the injuries set back in. Multiple oblique injuries limited Rutschman to 90 games in 2025, while his offensive numbers continued to decline.
As the Orioles’ catcher enters his age-28 season, the Orioles need him to break out of this prolonged offensive rut if they’re to return to the playoffs. The solution may just be staying healthy, as the last time he was fully healthy for a full season, he played like the best catcher in baseball.
Rutschman should also benefit from the additions of Alonso and Taylor Ward. Over the past two seasons, there were definitely times Rutschman was trying too hard to fill the Orioles’ need for a power bat in their lineup. Overly aggressive upercut swings replaced the patient and balanced approach that propelled the former No. 1 overall pick to early-career success. With Alonso and Ward brought in specifically for their ability to rain home runs across Camden Yards, Rutschman can now return to his well-rounded approach that made him such a potent offensive force behind the dish.
2. Their ice-cold approach with RISP
The Orioles built the legacy of this franchise on the prowess of the three-run home run. But it’s still nice to score from a well-place single with a runner on second. Last year, Baltimore was easily one of the worst teams in the league with RISP. Their .234 average with runners on second/third bested only the White Sox, Rockies and Pirates—three of the four worst teams in baseball. Their 25% strikeout rate was the third-worst in MLB, with only the Rockies and Angels getting punched out more in run-scoring situations.
If the Orioles are going to make it back to October, they need to hit better with RISP. Of the 12 teams that made the playoffs last year, only the Mariners hit under .250 with runners on second/third. Last I checked, the Orioles do not have the same pitching talent as Seattle, so they shouldn’t look to follow the Mariners offensive blueprint if they want to make it back to the playoffs.
Instead, if the O’s want to reclaim the Top 10 offense they boosted in 2024 and 2023, they’ll need to hit better with second and third occupied. This is one of the areas where Alonso should be a major catalyst. The 5-time All-Star hit .309 with a 1.035 OPS last season when there were runners in scoring position. Of returning Orioles who had at least 50 PAs with RISP, only Gunnar Henderson (.342) and Jordan Westburg (.358) hit above .300 with RISP, while the other returners all hit .221 or worse. Ward was below league average last year with a .246 average with RISP, but still should help improve the Orioles’ numbers.
3. The 10-game playoff losing streak
Despite finishing in last place in 2025, playoffs are very much the expectation for the 2026 Orioles. Fangraphs currently gives the O’s a 55% chance to play October baseball, the sixth best chance of any AL team. That number should only go up with if Baltimore can add a pitcher like Framber Valdez or Zac Gallen to further solidify its revamped rotation.
If the Orioles can make it back to the postseason, it will be the first time since 1974 that the O’s made the playoffs in three out of four seasons. However, just making the playoffs won’t be enough to placate the frustrated fan base in Birdland. The Orioles’ last playoff win game in the series clincher over Detroit in the 2014 ALDS. For context, Gunnar Henderson was in middle school, Adley Rutschman a sophomore in high school and Peter Alonso a sophomore in college the last time the Orioles won a playoff game.
Manager Craig Albernaz, his staff and these players will have a hard enough task getting the Orioles back on track and back to October. But that doesn’t take away from the fact that the most important cold streak the O’s need to break in 2026 is their losing streak in the postseason.
