After a brutal stretch of losing by design, the Wizards are going to try to start winning this year. The past three seasons, the team totaled 50 wins — tied with the 2021-24 Detroit Pistons for the 10th worst three-year stretch in NBA history.
The worst stretch belongs to The Process Philadelphia 76ers, which went 37-109 from 2013-16. That’s a .150 winning percentage. That got them six trips to the second round of the playoffs in the years since. The last player still around from all that tanking
is the creaking, disintegrating, brittle Joel Embiid.
While cratering the franchise for multiple seasons had become such a prevalent rebuilding strategy that the league finally imposed draft lottery rules to put an end to the practice, the reality is it takes a long string of roster moves (draft, sign, trade) that work and a liberal dose of good luck to build any team into a title contender.
This isn’t me just tapping away — rebuilds are difficult and complex, and big leaps from a bottom dweller are relatively rare. Last season, the Wizards had the NBA’s worst record — just 17 wins. Based on history, what’s realistic for the team this season? Scanning back through time, three paths emerge:
- The Stagnanation — Think the multiyear tank — where the Wizards, Jazz, and process Sixers were. This is what Washington is hoping to graduate from. Another sub-20 win season would be unbearable. Teams in this phase would typically “improve” by up to three wins, though another season at the bottom of the rankings would be fairly normal.
- The Norm — Teams that finish at the bottom get high draft picks and accumulate young talent. Where building a title contender takes a long sequence of good decisions and good luck, continuing to lose when given prime opportunities to add top-shelf talent takes the opposite. That said, it takes a special rookie to transform a persistent loser into a winner, though normal improvement from young teammates and some well-time veteran additions can yield a meaningful uptick in team record — from 4-9 wins.
- The Transformation — This happens in two (and only two) situations — if a previously good team fell because their star player (or players) missed all (or virtually all) of a season due to injuries, OR if a team gets freakishly lucky in the draft lottery. The Indiana Pacers are likely prime candidates for this kind of bounceback. The San Antonio Spurs famously hit both these criteria when David Robinson missed a season with a back injury, and they landed Tim Duncan in the lottery. Teams in this category could add 15-25 wins the following season.
Which scenario is most likely? We can safely dismiss scenario No. 1. The Wizards are going to try to win, and it would take an incredible string of injuries to several players for them not to improve. It’s possible though extremely unlikely they’ll manage just 15-20 wins again.
That leaves the other two — normal improvement or a major step forward. My lean is towards a hybrid of scenarios No. 2 and 3. The team has accumulated talented youngsters, at least some of whom should improve to some degree this season. That’s The Norm.
It’s also added three significant veterans without giving up any core youngsters — Anthony Davis, Trae Young, and DeAndre Ayton. That’s akin to adding back star players who missed the previous season. Last year’s team wouldn’t have gone 17-65 if they’d had Davis, Young, and Ayton available. Not no way, not no how.
Adding those three plus top pick AJ Dybantsa adds a lot of firepower to the roster, and should allow youngsters to slot into more natural roles. This should give the team a significant boost on both ends of the floor. But, Davis has missed a lot time due to injury throughout his career, and Young appeared in just 15 games last season.
Davis’ health is The Wildcard. If he manages 65 games, the Wizards could enjoy a transformative change. If it’s 45-50 games…they’re more likely in The Norm range.
So what does that mean? Last season, the Wizards managed 17 victories.
- The Stagnation | 17-20 wins — This would be brutal — it would mean many injuries, and youngsters regressing instead of improving. It might well mean wholesale changes to the roster, coaching staff, and front office.
- The Norm | 21-26 wins — This range would also be painful, but there’d be positive signs and fnas would have reason for hope. The most likely way this happens is if Davis and Young get hurt, and the team rides normal incremental improvement from the kids. Watching Alex Sarr, Dybantsa, and Kyshawn George or Bilal Coulibaly lead the team to 25 wins could be somewhat rewarding.
- The Transformation | 32-42 wins — This would take good health and career norm performances from the veteran stars plus normal development from the kids. This is also what it would take for the Wizards to even make the play-in this season, especially in a deeper and more competitive Eastern Conference.
Sports books are anticipating scenario No. 3 — the over/under for wins is 34.5. They’re usually in the right ballpark, though it’s worth mention that this scenario is rare. Improving by 25 wins from one season to the next has happened just 16 times in NBA history.
The San Antonio Spurs have done it three times! Leaping by 35 wins when they got David Robinson onto the floor, by 36 wins when they drafted Duncan and got Robinson back from injury, and by 28 wins last season.
The biggest single season improvement was 42 wins by the 2007-08 Boston Celtics, which traded for Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen. The Celtics also have a 33-win leap, which happened when Larry Bird joined the team.
The only other team to jump by 30+ wins in a single season was the 2004-05 Phoenix Suns, which added free agent guard Steve Nash.
With some freakish good health, the Wizards could conceivably improve by 30 wins or more next season. History says 12-15 is more in the realm for the optimistic realist. That probably leaves the Wizards just outside the play-in, though with a more entertaining and interesting product on the floor.
