Game Odds
Note: All lines are via FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change
Moneyline: TCU -126; KSU +108
Spread: TCU -1.5
Total Points: 55.5
Despite injury news seeming to trend in the favor of the Horned Frogs and the percentage of action being placed in support of TCU, the actual line has trended back towards the home team Wildcats. The spread opened with TCU as a 2.5 point favorite, dropping to 1.5 where it currently sits and has remained much of the week. TCU has performed well against the spread this season, going 3-0-1 vs. the number in its four FBS contests while
K-State is just 2-3 as the oddsmakers have struggled to reconcile where this team should be projected after a slow start to the 2025 season. The Frogs are coming off a last-minute cover thanks to a 4th down touchdown strike that sealed the win and gave TCU the 14-point win as 13.5-point favorites. Kansas State also covered with the narrow loss at Baylor as 4.5-point underdogs. TCU has struggled with the Wildcats and especially in Manhattan, last winning the road matchup in 2017, only covering the spread once since then: the regular season matchup in Fort Worth in 2022. Both offenses have struggled to meet oddsmaker expectations, falling a combined 3-6 below the projected points total this season, as such this number has continued to drop from an opening total of 57.5. Even as the number drops, it still may be too steep unless you really see either KSU’s offense bouncing back in a big way or its defense fully falling off the cliff.
Player Projections
Note: Player projections are pulled from PrizePicks and are subject to change
Passing Yards
- Josh Hoover, TCU: 285.5
- Avery Johnson, KSU: 240.5
Receiving Yards
- Eric McAlister, TCU: 68.5
- Joseph Manjack, TCU: 58.5
- Jordan Dwyer, TCU: 45.5
- DJ Rogers, TCU: 30.5
- Jayce Brown, KSU: 78.5
- Jaron Tibbs, KSU: 57.5
- Garrett Oakley, KSU: 33.5
- Joe Jackson, KSU: 21.5
Despite again entering the season with major expectations, Kansas State has not lived up to the hype, that is especially the case for Avery Johnson who was projected to be the missing piece that would vault the Wildcats into national prominence. Johnson is averaging just 227 yards per game and has only eclipsed this projection twice vs. FBS opponents this season, both of which coming in losses away from home. With RB Dylan Edwards still sidelined with injury, the burden of the offense will continue to fall on Johnson. The Horned Frogs’ pass defense ranks among the lowest in the conference, placing 14th or worse in pass yards allowed per game, passing touchdowns allowed, and yards per attempt allowed. With cornerback Avery Helm still out with injury, the TCU secondary unit will continue to have its hands full, especially with electric route running Jayce Brown on the other side. Brown may not reach Jordyn Tyson levels of elite playmaking and the 8-126-2 stat line served to the Frogs a few weeks ago, but Brown is a top candidate to clear this receiving total, even if perhaps Johnson’s passing total remains below the projection.
Eric McAlister returning to the lineup against Colorado was a sight for Josh Hoover’s sore eyes as the TCU QB struggled with his leading receiver hobbled with injury vs. Arizona State. With the Horned Frogs again on a road trip to a tough environment, Hoover will to continue at pace for the season where he’s averaging over 300 yards per game on 9.75 yards per attempt. K-State meanwhile is only allowing 208 yards per game through the air, and that’s even factoring in the monster 345 yard day Sawyer Robertson dropped on their heads in Waco last week. With Kevorian Barnes no longer on the injury list, look for the Frogs to push for a more balanced attack, perhaps limiting some of the top end production for the TCU pass catchers. KSU may still leave its DBs on islands against Dwyer and McAlister, so look for the wideouts to take advantage as just a couple of chunk plays could see them fly over these projections.
