Not much was made of the March 28 trade between the Washington Nationals and the Chicago White Sox, when the Nats sent minor league catcher Boston Smith for first baseman Curtis Mead, who was designated for assignment three days earlier.
A 25-year-old now on his fourth franchise, he had posted just a .231 batting average, .304 on-base percentage, and .632 OPS with 6 home runs and 34 runs batted in across 460 MLB at-bats. He secured a spot on the major league roster after the conclusion of the team’s
first series and has absolutely run with every opportunity he’s been given.
The season is still in its earliest stages, but of all the issues plaguing the Nationals in their early 4-8 skid to open the season, Mead has certainly not been one of them. Mead was a former top 50 prospect in the sport, so this is a player with pedigree. He was known as a pure hitter in the minors, but so far that has not translated in big leagues. However, there is a chance, even if it is slim, that he has unlocked something in DC.
He’s seen 17 total plate appearances in 6 games since being activated, and has come out to a flaming hot start. After going hitless in his first 2 games against the Philadelphia Phillies, the first team he saw time in the minor leagues with, he’s recorded a hit in 5 of his last 11 at-bats. Of those hits, 2 have been doubles and 1 was a home run, tacking on 3 RBIs, a stolen base, and 3 walks en route to a .333/.412/667 slash line on the season so far.
Obviously, it’s unreasonable to make any definitive statements on a player just a handful of games under their belt. It’s far from a rare occurrence to see players come out swinging and quickly taper off, but the rise in advanced stats has made it far easier to predict what’s real and what’s a facade.
Baseball Savant is by far the most popular database for under-the-hood metrics, and taking one look at Mead’s full profile shows some extremely favorable signs. Every single one of his listed offensive statistics grades out at an above-average percentile, albeit he hasn’t yet recorded enough batted ball data to qualify for a full breakdown. What is available, however, should spark plenty of hope among the Nats fanbase.
Throwing out a few numbers, he’s posted an expected batting average (xBA) of .321, an average exit velocity of 94.2 MPH, and is squaring up the ball at a borderline elite level, all while rarely whiffing at anything.
For the record, while these numbers can lead to a comfortable regression to the mean, they definitely aren’t an end-all be-all. Even so, it would be unwise to chalk up his electric Nationals introduction to just fluky April baseball. Mead has flat-out been a fantastic baseball player to begin his Washington tenure, and if he can continue to post at the plate, President of Baseball Operations Paul Toboni might have his first big analytical win since joining the organization.
