When Ohio State (8-2) takes on No. 12 North Carolina (10-1) Saturday afternoon in Atlanta, they’ll also be facing the tallest team in the nation. Per KenPom, the Tar Heels’ average height of 79.5 inches
is the tallest in the nation, which means no matter how Ohio State tries to mix and match on Saturday, they’ll be ceding some height to 12th-ranked UNC.
North Carolina starts three players who are 6-foot-10 or taller — Jarin Stevenson (6-foot-10), Caleb Wilson (6-foot-10), and Henri Veesaar (7-foot). Stevenson, a junior transfer from Alabama, is playing 27 minutes per game this season and mainly plays small forward. Wilson, a former five-star recruit and one of the most talented freshmen in the country, averages 19.5 points and 10.4 rebounds per game at power forward. Veesaar, a seven-foot tall Estonian center who transferred in from Arizona, is coming off a career-high 26-point performance Tuesday night against Eastern Tennessee State. He also averages 9.1 rebounds per game.
Ohio State, on the other hand, is No. 98 in average height in the country. Christoph Tilly can go toe-to-toe with Veesaar height-wise, but after that, the Tar Heels boast some serious height advantages. Brandon Noel is 6-foot-8, while Devin Royal stands 6-foot-6.
With senior guard Seth Trimble out for the past eight games with a broken wrist suffered during a freak weight room accident, North Carolina has been starting “freshman” guard Luka Bogavac. Bogavac is 6-foot-6, 22 years old, and played professionally in the ABA League overseas for four season before committing to North Carolina in May. He could be matched up with John Mobley Jr. on Saturday afternoon.
Assuming Trimble does not play and that the two teams match up position-for-position on Saturday (not likely, but for our purposes it makes the most sense), here are how the starters match up:
Bruce Thornton (6-foot-2, 215 pounds) vs. Kyan Evans (6-foot-2, 175 pounds)
John Mobley Jr. (6-foot-1, 175 pounds) vs. Luka Bogavac (6-foot-6, 215 pounds)
Devin Royal (6-foot-6, 230 pounds) vs. Jarin Stevenson (6-foot-10, 215 pounds)
Brandon Noel (6-foot-8, 240 pounds) vs. Caleb Wilson (6-foot-10, 215 pounds)
Christoph Tilly (7-foot-0, 240 pounds) vs. Henri Veesaar (7-foot-0, 225 pounds)
North Carolina averages 42.1 rebounds per game, compared to Ohio State’s 37.3. The Tar Heels are 10-0 this season when out-rebounding their opponent— in their lone loss, Michigan State beat them on the boards, 37-30.
Despite being the tallest team in the nation, Carolina doesn’t block a ton of shots. The Tar Heels have a very average 9.7% block percentage, which is 194th in the country. Wilson and Veesaar are the only two Tar Heels averaging more than one block per game.
While they don’t block many shots, North Carolina has been one of the stingiest defenses in the country against two-point field goal attempts, which also happens to be the Buckeyes’ strong suit. UNC is holding opponents to 40.6% shooting from two-point range this season, which is the third-lowest mark in the country. On the flip side, Ohio State is shooting 63.1% on two-point shots this season, which is the fifth-best mark in the nation.
Basically, North Carolina has been elite at contesting shots near the basket this season, even if they aren’t tipping or blocking those shots. Their length and athleticism has been impacting their opponents’ shots as they get closer to the basket, which means Ohio State may run into the same issue if they try to force the ball inside for higher percentage looks.
From a statistical standpoint, Ohio State will likely need to buck their recent struggles from beyond the arc to win on Saturday afternoon. The height advantage is clearly in North Carolina’s favor, and because they’re always taller than their opponents, teams have struggled to get off clean, close looks against them.
Over the last four games, Ohio State is shooting 28.8% from beyond the arc. Thornton has cooled down after his blistering start, as he is shooting 36.3% from three over the last four games. Mobley is shooting 28.5% from three-point range during the same time period. Christoph Tilly was supposed to be a guy who can stretch the floor a bit, but he is 4-for-31 from beyond the arc this year (12.9%).
If the guys mentioned above can’t get it going from deep and reverse this trend, it could be a long afternoon in Atlanta.
