The Portland Trail Blazers and San Antonio Spurs are tied 1-1 in their best-of-seven, first-round series in the 2026 NBA Playoffs. The first two games of the series were played in San Antonio. Now the venue moves to Portland for Games 3 and 4.
Spurs center Victor Wembanyama’s status is still undetermined for the third contest. He suffered a head injury in Game 2 and is progressing through league-mandated concussion protocols before being cleared for action.
The return to friendly territory and the
potential absence of Wembanyama open up possibilities for Portland that seemed remote when the series started in this 7-seed versus 2-seed matchup. A few Blazer’s Edge Readers have mused on those possibilities in questions submitted to the Blazer’s Edge Mailbag. Like this one:
Dave,
If Wembanyama is out does that give the Blazers a way to win the series? I can’t believe how unexpected that would be but I can’t help hoping too. Do you see us winning? Tell me there’s a chance.
Nathan
There’s always a chance. The longer Wemby is out, the greater that chance becomes, of course. Even a minutes restriction or having him second-guessing himself would help.
It seems morbid and cruel to root for injuries, though, so I don’t want to hit on that point too hard. Let’s hope he’s OK as a human being and an athlete first, then worry about the implications. Concussions are serious business and are additive over time. Be decent. Be kind. Wish him nothing but the best. The goal isn’t to have your team win because of misfortune to the opponent. (Though all teams will take what comes in that vein.) The real aim is to be able to beat opponents no matter what happens. That’s the ultimate definition of a champion.
As far as the Blazers go, look…we’ve seen them all season long. We know they’re capable of winning amazing games. We know they’re capable of losing to anyone, anywhere, for any reason too. I wouldn’t worry about winning the series at all just yet. I’d worry more about Game 3.
The potential to regard an opponent as “easy” and slip into overconfidence is strong. The Spurs, themselves, may have done that in Game 2 after developing a large fourth-quarter lead. It’s a disease for young teams, of which the Blazers are one. It wouldn’t be surprising at all to watch the team assume they’re going to get a win over a Wembanyama-free San Antonio squad, then get their butts kicked. They’ve lost to the Spurs without Wemby before.
The complexity increases when you consider that the Blazers naturally fall into volume three-point shooting. If Wembanyama is out, they need to attack the lane like a $12 sushi buffet. Just keep going back until you can’t stands no more. Whether they have the discipline to do that remains to be seen.
On paper, the new-look, late-blossoming Blazers should have a good chance of winning any game Wemby misses. In practice, it doesn’t feel anywhere close to an automatic victory. They’re carrying too much baggage, overcoming too much inexperience, fighting offensive inertia too hard to feel easy about even the next game, let alone three of the next five.
It would not surprise me to see Portland drop Game 3. If they win, it wouldn’t shock me to see them lose Game 4 after. I will be mildly surprised if either team wins two straight. My guess is that the series goes back to San Antonio tied at 2-2. That’s assuming Wembanyama doesn’t play (or doesn’t play at full strength) in one or both of the upcoming Portland games. If he’s fully healthy, the Spurs are capable of sweeping in the Moda Center. It just doesn’t seem like he will be at this point.
I have no crystal ball, of course. Maybe I’ll get surprised and someone will be up 3-1 after Sunday’s game. If so, let’s hope that’s Portland! It’d be fun to see the Spurs’ response when someone puts their backs against the wall. They’re a young team too, hardly invulnerable.
In any case, since your guess is as good as mine, we’ll open this question to all of our audience…even those curious fans from Pounding the Rock hopping over to see what the other side is talking about. Who wins Game 3 between the Blazers and Spurs and why do you think so? Share your prediction in the comments section below.
Thanks for the question too! If you send yours to blazersub@gmail.com we’ll try to answer as many as possible!
