Background.
Certainly, Ketel Marte wants to again reach the World Series. In 2023, when the Diamondbacks reached the World Series, the window of contention was wide open. In 2024, only a tiebreaker kept the Diamondbacks out of the playoffs. In 2025, when the Diamondbacks started the season with an even better team, many serious injuries made a huge negative impact. Nevertheless after a trade deadline that hurt, the team made a spectacular run and almost made the playoffs.
My reading led me to believe that with
the loss of players, the window of contention would likely be closed in 2026 and if not then, it certainly would be closed in 2027. Let’s look at whether the window of contention will remain open in 2026 and 2027.
How young are the core players?
The following table shows my view of the core position players. Their average age of 26.65 years old (data from GanGraphs) at the start of the 2026 season will be two years less than the MLB average of 31.5 years old on opening day rosters at the start of the 2025 season. The Diamondbacks’ youth will keep the window of contention open for years.
The position with the most uncertainty is left field. If Jordan Lawlar is ready to play third base, Blaze Alexander could be moved to left field. Other players who could play left field are Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Jake McCarthy.
The following table shows the rotation core (Burnes, Nelson, Pfaadt, Rodriguez) for 2026 and 2027. Their average age of 29.95 years old (data from FanGraphs) at the start of the 2026 season is a year and a half under the league average. In 2027, the average will be nearly at league average. Because the other starters and the bullpen are not yet known, the average age of pitchers could change.
Is contention affordable?
Although Baseball Reference shows arbitration costs will increase $100 Million in 2027 compared to 2026, a remedy would be retaining only five players in arb-1 and arb-2 (and trading away all arb-3 players). That remedy would reduce the increase to an affordable $14.1 Million.
The following table shows the arbitration players that are essential to retain. The estimated 2027 arbitration salaries are optimistically within 20%, but they could be wrong. They were based on my estimate of their performance in 2026, with as assist of this FanGraphs article.
Will second year effects help?
Three second year effects follow.
After the trade deadline, the Diamondbacks made a spectacular run and almost reached the playoffs. Among the reasons discussed in this AZ Snake Pit article was optimism. More specifically, that spectacular run built in the players an optimistic belief in winning. The second year effect is the power of believing.
It’s possible the Diamondbacks will acquire a starting pitcher age 30 or older. When that happened, in their first season, only 20% had a better ERA. However, in their second season, 60% had a better ERA than their old team Details are discussed in this AZ Snake Pit article.
At some point in the next two seasons, four pitchers (Corbin Burnes, Tommy Henry, Blake Walston, and Justin Martinez) will return from Tommy John surgery. With the assumption they will return to Major League performance, there is a chance they will perform better their second season back. For example Justin Verlander won a CY Young his first season back, while Adam Wainwright was better his second season back per this MLB article. In any case, their impact will likely be larger in 2027 than 2026.
Which core players are in their prime?
The big assumption (and there are exceptions) is that peak performance happens at age 29. Let’s look at the six Diamondbacks with guaranteed contracts through the 2027 season.
Three of the six players are under age 29 (Perdomo, Carroll, and Martinez). Perdomo and Carroll are All-Stars. In 2024, Justin Martinez was voted the AZ Snake Pit’s Rookie of the Year. The prospect of them improving will extend the contention window.
Three of the six players are over age 29 (Marte, Burnes, and Rodriguez). Marte is an All-Star and silver slugger. Burnes is an All-Star and in 2021 won the Cy Young. I expect them to retain near peak performance. In 2024 Eduardo Rodriguez overcame a lat injury. In his last four games of 2025, his ERA was an excellent 2.31. If he can avoid injury, his value will be high as part of the core rotation.
What is the impact of trades at the latest trade deadline?
Overall, the trades at the deadline hurt the 2025 team. However, there were positives that will benefit the 2026 and 2027 teams. Let’s look at two positives.
One positive was acquiring Tyler Locklear (age 24.8). He could be a late bloomer, similar to late blooming Christian Walker. He could be the everyday first baseman for years.
Another positive was Acquiring Kohl Drake (age 25.2). He was assigned to AAA. Optimistically, he could be part of the rotation by 2027.
“We brought back a lot of arms, something I thought was important as we went forward here. Felt like we were able to do that. …” — Mike Hazen
If a lockout happens prior to the 2027 season, what will be the impact?
A lockout could reduce the number of games in the season. A lockout could result in many double header games. Overall, those changes could give an advantage to underdog teams, especially the Diamondbacks who made a spectacular run after the trade deadline.
Summary.
The window of contention will remain open in 2026 and 2027. Summary points follow.
- On opening days of 2026 and 2027, the average age of position players will be less than the MLB average. That will contribute to keeping the window of contention open.
- On opening day 2026, the 30 years old average of the core rotation (Burnes, Nelson, Pfaadt, Rodriguez) will be less than the MLB average. In 2027, the average will be nearly at league average. Because the other starters and the bullpen are not yet known, the average age of pitchers could change.
- Although Baseball Reference shows arbitration costs increasing $100 Million in 2027 compared to 2026, retaining only five players in arb-1 and arb-2 would reduce the increase to an affordable $14.1 Million.
- After the latest trade deadline, their spectacular run built in the players an optimistic belief in winning. The second year effect is the power of believing.
- Acquired pitchers often pitch better in the second year for their new team. If the Diamondbacks acquire a rotation pitcher, his performance could be better in 2027 than 2026.
- Four pitchers, who will be returning from Tommy John surgery, could perform better in 2027 than 2026.
- Three players (Perdomo, Carroll and Martinez) will likely not have reached their peak performance in 2027. On the other hand, three players (Marte, Burnes, and Rodriguez) will likely retain their levels of performance albeit they are past their peaks.
- The latest trade deadline moves likely improved the 2027 team compared to the 2025 team and the 2026 team.
