The Cardinals host the Braves this weekend at Busch Stadium leading up to the All Star Break. If you haven’t heard, Jordan Walker will be in the Home Run Derby on Monday night on Netflix, AND be at the All-Star Game, as the Cardinals lone position player representative. Riley O’Brien was also added to the All-Star roster because certain pitchers were scheduled to play in games this weekend and would not have enough rest time for the exhibition game. Old news, I know, but the All-Star Break is just
right around the corner after this series hosting Atlanta.
(Personally, I am going to watch the HR Derby for the first time in years, because I currently have Netflix… and probably ignore the All-Star Game as usual, unless I am bored and can find it on streaming TV somehow).
the 2026 Atlanta Braves
Over the last 10 games, the Braves are 5-5, two of those losses and one of those wins due to the Cardinals. Since the Cardinals went to Atlanta, the Braves split a 4 game series vs the Mets, and won a three game series in Pittsburgh. Before we won that series against them in Atlanta, the Braves had been bailing the water out of their boat, going 9-14 in June. So, I cannot tell if their going 5-5 in the last 10 games is them turning it around or, just treading water. Regardless of recency bias, they are one of the best teams in baseball and first place in the ultra tough NL East division, where 4 out of 5 teams possess winning records.
What must be really frustrating for Braves fans during their hapless June: losing series to teams like the Mets, Giants, and Padres, and being swept in two games by the White Sox, while doing well vs the Brewers. Go figure.
The Braves have one of the best bullpens in baseball, and they fare well at home, on the road, and vs over .500 teams. How can a team that has been floundering so much lately be that on top of things? They stacked up 22 wins in March and April, and 18 wins in May.
How is Atlanta so good?
It’s not so much the hitting, it’s the pitching. Their lineup can certainly hit home runs well beyond the midrange, tied for 6th in MLB with 3 other teams. Overall, their lineup is good not great, most similar to the Houston Astros. And similar to the Cardinals, the Braves don’t like to take many walks. They take even less walks than St Louis, and perhaps the biggest weakness to their lineup is on-base percentage. But hey, if you’re hitting the long ball, whatever about walks, amirite.
Braves pitching is what makes their team win a lot. Their best trait is most similar to the Giants, but all the Brewers: they don’t let you barrel the ball. As a team they are really doing well, but there’s a caveat…
Braves pitching has an airtight, lockdown bullpen. So it’s their relievers! Believe it or not, the Braves bullpen is worth nearly as much WAR as their starting rotation. The Braves are either proof that an elite bullpen can elevate your above average team to elite, without having anything more than an above-average lineup and above-average starting pitching by ERA/xERA (below average by FIP stats!).
Braves Defense
The Braves defense is good, especially because of center fielder Michael Harris II, left fielder Mauricio Dubon, rangey first baseman Matt Olson, and part time shorstop Jorge Mateo, if we are going by Fielding Run Value on Baseball Savant. They can certainly prevent some runs on defense, so maybe their starting rotation isn’t as important a factor in their winning ways.
Home runs, prime outfield defense, and a bullpen just as good as the Brewers, only bettered by the Dodgers and Padres by fWAR.
The Cardinals defense throws all their eggs in one basket, with arguably the best middle infield defense in MLB. Overall St Louis ranks higher than the Braves defense, but it’s not by a lot. Hopefully this can be a good series.
Cardinals 4-6 in their last 10 games
The 2026 Cardinals as they stand today are road warriors. At home they are a game under .500. Earlier in the season the team was over .500 vs teams over .500, but now will need to take two of three from the Braves to go back over .500 vs good teams. That’s a lot of .500! Which is also their expected win/loss record, currently.
No matter how you critique Atlanta, the Cardinals are the underdog here. The Cardinals have a slightly better position-player group overall, with that elite middle infield and a slightly better lineup because of the years Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, and Ivan Herrera are having, with the added on-base power of table setters JJ Wetherholt and Lars Nootbaar and the 134 wRC+ bat of Nelson Velazquez.
While the Braves don’t have stellar run producers like Jordan Walker and Alec Burleson, they score more runs because of a deeper lineup. So as much as statcast and sabermetric stats like the Cardinals a little bit more, the Braves are winning more games because of scoring more runs… and having much better pitching.
courtesy of baseball savant / mlb statcast info
You might be surprised that the Cardinals rotation is about the same as the Braves in ERA, and actually a fair deal better in total fWAR. That is where the similarities end, the Cardinals bullpen ERA is 4.28 and the Braves is 3.13! And the difference by xERA is even more devastating. If you prefer the lens of fWAR, the Braves bullpen is 3.5 wins better than the Cardinals!
This will strike home but the Braves bullpen probably will not walk you. No free passes. Whereas the Cardinals bullpen corps is practically inviting you onto first base in comparison. When Riley O’Brien is your most stingy walks guy, there is a problem. Ryne Stanek, Ryan Fernandez, Matt Svanson, and Gordon Graceffo are the prime offenders, but George Soriano needs some work too. The usually reliable JoJo Romero isn’t having his best year, but his ERA is good at least.
Series Schedule and Matchups
7:15 PM Friday July 10, 2026: Chris Sale vs Kyle Leahy
Fangraphs odds: Braves favored 58.1% to Cardinals 41.9% chance of winning
-Watch on: AppleTV (sorry guys)
Aging Ace Chris Sale is a lefty, so we should expect to see Nelson Velazquez in left field and batting cleanup. Blaze Jordan will probably play first base. Pedro Pages will likely catch Kyly Leahy.
Keys to the game: our outfield is like the inverse of Atlanta’s, defensively. Not good! Jordan Walker and Nelson Velazquez are having a race to the bottom in OAA numbers. At least Nathan Church is playing, it would seem! The Cardinals need to rely on pitch-to-contact, ground out style pitching. They must somehow get to and/or catch Chris Sale on a bad day. Because you don’t want to have to win vs Atlanta’s bullpen. Burleson needs a big hit in a big pinch hit opportunity, if the Cardinals pitching can even tame the Braves lineup.
Should we win this? No. But it sure would be nice.
6:15 PM Saturday July 11, 2026: Reynaldo Lopez vs Matthew Liberatore
Fangraphs odds: Braves favored 53.6% to Cardinals 46.4%
-Watch on: CardinalsTV
Reynaldo Lopez looks really good by old school stats ERA and W/L record. Everything else looks prime for regression, whether it’s his xERA or FIP stats. He probably just isn’t that good. He will probably issue some walks. But on the flipside, he is still better than the Cardinals worst starting pitcher in 2026, Matthew Liberatore.
Liberatore is worse than Lopez across the board except he actually issues less walks. It could be argued that Reynaldo is having a lucky season while Matthew is having a .325 BABIP against disaster. Whatever the case, Liberatore is having a bad season and is getting hit harder. Lopez also has less miles on the tires, at only 50 some innings pitched. This game is winnable, but we are going to have to see a decent Liberatore outing.
Lopez is a right-handed pitcher, so look to see Burly man first base, with Herrera catching Liberatore and Nootbaar in left field. I am using roster resource projected lineups for the purposes of this preview.
Keys to the game: Let’s make Reynaldo Lopez regress quickly, shall we? Score as many runs as possible early on.
Should we win this: I’m going to call it a draw, flip a coin, whatever.
1:15 PM Sunday July 12, 2026: Hurston Waldrep vs Dustin May
Fangraphs odds: Braves favored 45.3% to Cardinals 54.7%
-Watch on: CardinalsTV
Hurston Waldrep sounds like a name in a sci-fi or fantasy novel, or maybe a steampunk character, but he doesn’t seem to be a very good pitcher. This would be like if it was Liberatore vs Sale, because our guy Dustin May is pitching vs their worst pitcher. Who knows what could happen since he doesn’t seem to be a regular starting pitcher and we are dealing with small sample size, somewhat… but this guy has a major, major walk issue.
Dustin May may have a babip against problem in 2026 (he usually doesn’t), but his underlying numbers and non-ERA rate stats look real good. He is on pace for a 4 fWAR season powered by a 3.21 FIP. His xERA is 3.78, making him the Cardinals ace by that measure. It is looking like the standard Burleson lineup Sunday as Waldrep is a righty. Look for Herrera to catch again Sunday, maybe.
Keys to the game: see if Waldrep will walk you first and foremost, and if not, do some damage. May will need to have a decent game, if the Cardinals lineup is mystified by the newbie starting pitcher. Or maybe it’s a bullpen game for them that day, great.
Should we win this: why the heck not! Winning the last game before the All Star Break seems key, somehow. Maybe this is the game where we prove we can outhit the Braves.
See you Wednesday on the other side of the All Star Game! Go Cardinals.
And of course, tomorrow afternoon starting at noon is the MLB Draft! Full coverage here on VEB for each pick! don’t miss it… google tells me that it is on both NBC and MLB Network, or on streaming through Peacock, Fubo, and MLB.com.
Cardinals baseball will resume next Friday night in Arizona, after this Braves series
