It’s truly another must-win game for the ‘Cats this weekend.
Northwestern currently sits at 2-2 on the year. This non-conference bout and the Purdue game two weeks from Saturday represent perhaps the only
two realistic wins remaining on the Wildcats’ schedule.
An upset is still possible. But for now, NU is not where it needs to be to consistently compete with high-level teams in the Big Ten.
Fortunately for the ‘Cats, ULM should be a welcome respite from exceedingly difficult competition. The Warhawks are 3-1, sure, but the three wins came against St. Francis PA, UTEP and Arkansas State, while their lone loss was a 73-0 drubbing at the hands of Alabama.
In short, the Warhawks are much more of a typical Group of Five school than, say, Tulane, which should give the Wildcats a much better chance to win. NU is favored for sure, but how can they get it done, and what would cause them to lose in an upset?
Why Northwestern will beat ULM
A career day from Griffin Wilde
ULM is one of the worst teams in the FBS at defending the pass, and its thin secondary was on full display against Alabama’s Ty Simpson. He went a perfect 17-for-17 for 226 yards and three touchdowns in the teams’ Sept. 6 matchup before exiting the game to rest. Overall, Crimson Tide quarterbacks finished 29-for-33 for 371 yards and seven touchdowns, a remarkable stat line even for an Alabama squad that — despite its struggles early in the year — can claim to be one of the best in the country.
Naturally, Northwestern should hope to throw the ball more often this week, but Wildcat receivers outside of Wilde have been woefully unreliable. The rest of the wide receivers had three catches for -4 yards between them against UCLA, and the Bruins don’t have a particularly sound secondary either. Meanwhile, Wilde scored a touchdown and nearly cracked the century mark despite seeing tons of defensive attention, and it’s clear he’s developing a rapport with Preston Stone despite the latter’s struggles in 2025.
Wilde’s talent is tremendous. If Stone can get him the football consistently, it’ll likely be a long day ahead for ULM.
A healthier secondary?
For the first time, head coach David Braun gave some positive news about the injury statuses of both Damon Walters and Josh Fussell for this weekend.
Having their top safety and top corner return this Saturday would be a boon for the Wildcats. Northwestern has seen a number of players step up in a shorthanded secondary, including Robert Fitzgerald, Garner Wallace and Ore Adeyi, but there’s nothing like having Fussell’s lockdown ability alongside the athleticism of Walters in the secondary.
Meanwhile, ULM has just 512 total passing yards on the year. While starter Aidan Armenta did throw for 185 yards against Arkansas State, he deferred to the run much more in other contests, and the Warhawks clearly don’t want to put him in bad spots throwing the football.
This could be something the Wildcats exploit. At full health, their defensive backs should be able to handle ULM’s hodgepodge of receivers, as none truly stand out from the rest. Northwestern having a healthier secondary would force Louisiana-Monroe to focus even more heavily on the run, allowing the ‘Cats to stack the box or run-commit in many more situations.
Why Northwestern won’t beat ULM
The lack of a running game
The Warhawks actually rank 16th in the FBS in opposing rush yards per game, allowing 84.5 yards on average to their opponents. Yes, they face a much weaker schedule, but that rank is so much better than UCLA’s No. 131 with 232.8 yards that it’s fair to wonder if ULM actually has a better rush defense than the Bruins overall.
NU’s run game has been successful as a whole this season, but it’s still possible we see it fall back down to earth. Caleb Komolafe is coming off a record 27 carries, and although he looked great the whole game, it was clear he was wearing down a little on some third and fourth-quarter carries.
ULM does have a chance — however slim — to limit the Wildcat running game. If it can do so, the ‘Cats could be forced to put the ball in Stone’s hands more, allowing the Warhawks potential opportunities to get stops or force more giveaways from Northwestern’s oft-turnover-prone QB.
Little consistency in the pass rush
Northwestern did generate some pressure against UCLA, but it’s hard to trust a unit that has just six total sacks on the season, even when you include FCS Western Illinois and the Bruins in that total. Meanwhile, the Warhawks have allowed just two sacks all season, a major credit to their offensive line and the occasional scrambles from Armenta.
So can the ‘Cats actually have a potent pass rush on Saturday? It’s far more uncertain than one might think. Carmine Bastone (1.5 sacks) was the only consistent defensive line contributor in that area of the game, and while the unit as a whole has clearly made strides since then, it might be tougher than expected to derail drives with sacks against Louisiana-Monroe. If Armenta has time to throw, it may help him beat NU’s secondary, putting the ‘Cats in a much more dangerous spot than they need to be in for the game as a whole.
