Thanksgiving Week means The Game…but it also means college basketball multi-team events (read: early-season tournaments). The Michigan Wolverines are headed to the second annual Players Era Festival — yes, the one marketed to provide NIL to the 18 (!) participating teams. It is not exactly a traditional bracket, meaning Wednesday’s opponent is still unknown, but the Wolverines do know they will open with a pair of intriguing non-conference tests.
Monday night brings a very late 10:30pm ET tipoff against
the San Diego State Aztecs. Brian Dutcher’s team is pretty much always elite defensively, and this game should will feel that impact, especially with Michigan traveling west and starting so late. Tuesday then pairs the Wolverines with a familiar foe, the Auburn Tigers, who ended their NCAA Tournament run last March. These are the two best teams Michigan has seen thus far, which sets up for a big week in Vegas.
Players Era Festival: Michigan (4-0)
Game 1 vs. San Diego State (2-1): Mon 11/24, 10:30 p.m. ET
Game 2 vs. No. 22 Auburn (4-1): Tue 11/25, 8:30 p.m. ET
Game 3 vs. TBD: Wed 11/26
Location: Michelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas, NV
TV/Streaming: truTV (Mon), TNT (Tue)
The only other meeting between Michigan and SDSU was a December 2021 win at Crisler, with Hunter Dickinson scoring 23 and grabbing 14 rebounds. Meanwhile, the Wolverines met the Tigers in that aforementioned Sweet 16 battle last season. There are many teams that could end up the Game 3 opponent, but hopefully not Oregon, Maryland, or Rutgers, the other three Big Ten participants.
Two Stats to Watch
SDSU Takeaway Rate: 23.8% (16th)
The Aztecs certainly can limit quality looks and they block a ton of shots, but the obvious narrative is sometimes the right one. SDSU is a top-20 team at forcing turnovers and that is going to be a huge issue for Michigan, as the Wolverines are no better off than last year when it comes to taking care of the ball. Three different players are averaging at least two steals per game already, including Magoon Gwath, who returned in Tuesday’s stunning loss to Troy.
Gwath won Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year as a freshman last season and poses a huge test for Michigan’s bigs. Even if the Wolverines take care of the ball, scoring in the halfcourt is going to be a struggle all night long, especially night one in a non-traditional venue with their body clocks all out of sorts. The good news is that the Michigan defense should have the advantage on the other end of the floor, as the SDSU offense is merely decent.
The Aztecs actually have a turnover rate higher than Michigan’s, which does create an interesting strategic wrinkle. There is an argument that Dusty May’s team should just play at rapid speed and risk turnovers in transition; there should be plenty of opportunities on the break, and the chance at easy fast-pace buckets is worth it knowing how hard it is to score against a set SDSU defense. Interestingly, the Aztecs play extremely slowly themselves, wanting to be methodical on both ends. Going fast is a way to drag them out of their comfort zone.
Auburn Offense: 102.1 Adj. Offense (18th)
Michigan fans are well aware of how lethal Auburn can be. Johni Broome, Miles Kelly, and Chad Baker-Mazara may be gone, but Tahaad Pettiford remains and is joined by Keyshawn Hall. The Tigers are already top-25 in two-point shooting, turnover rate, and offensive rebounding; this will be a good test to validate if the Wolverines are really as good as the metrics suggest (7th in Adj. Defense).
Thus far, Auburn has preferred to do its scoring in the paint. Hall is a huge threat all over the court (though is dealing with an injury), and while Pettiford is off to a slower start, he is going to be a tough matchup for whoever gets the assignment. Perhaps both teams are still figuring out their best lineups, but there are a ton of great options on both sides. The Tigers are solid defensively as well, and would not be fun to try to mount a big comeback against, so Michigan needs a great effort when Auburn has the ball.
This should definitely be more even than the game last March, though it is difficult to really know what is real about either team early on. Auburn has four wins over teams outside the top 150 and a narrow loss against Houston, while the Wolverines have two High Major wins but neither came comfortably. The Wolverines could absolutely go 2-0 (and even 3-0 against TBD!) in Vegas, but the Tigers have the talent to win by double-digits themselves.
