With 5 divisional games left on the schedule in their last nine contests, the Los Angeles Rams can swing wildly in either direction between now and when the NFC playoffs are set. That journey continues
this Sunday against the 6-3 San Francisco 49ers, but could their two remaining games against the 3-5 Arizona Cardinals be even harder to win?
It seems absurd to suggest that one of the worst organizations in NFL history could be better than one of the best, especially given their records, but a longer look at how they got to those records does imply that maybe the Rams need to be just as worried about Jacoby Brissett as they are about Mac Jones.
Wait, did I really just say that? The starting quarterbacks for the Cardinals and 49ers are Brissett and Jones…and they’re not expected to be replaced any time soon?
What a division.
Because the Rams lost to the 49ers once already, L.A.’s playing with fire if they lose to San Francisco again on Sunday. But that doesn’t mean that the 49ers are a great team, or even that they’re a better team than the Cardinals despite their opposite records.
Points
49ers: +6 point differential
Cardinals: +9 point differential
Despite their records, the Cardinals have a better point differential than the 49ers. Arizona has scored 180 and allowed 171, while San Francisco has scored 194 and allowed 188.
The 49ers have played in one more game though so here’s how that breaks down:
- 49ers 21.6 points per game, 20.9 points per game allowed
- Cardinals 22.5 points per game, 21.4 points per game allowed
Since Brissett replaced Kyler Murray, the Cardinals are scoring more points per game (25.3 points per game) and it’s just obvious how much better of a quarterback he is right now than the former number one pick.
Arizona hasn’t had a shutdown defense, but they are ninth points per drive allowed (1.95), while the 49ers rank 12th (2.00) under Robert Saleh.
Expected Points Added
Purely from a scoring perspective, the Cardinals are having a slightly better season than the 49ers. And defensively, it might not be that close. Look at the 49ers EPA (estimated points added) numbers over their last 5 games:
If you’re not familiar with EPA, and that’s okay if you’re not nobody is claiming that it’s the end-all be-all, here’s an explanation about how it’s formulated and why. The short answer is that EPA strives to assign value to each play based on how much more likely the play is to end in points. In other words, if you get a 5-yard run on 3rd-and-15 when you’re down 30 points, it’s not a very valuable play. But if you get a 5-yard run on 4th-and-goal from the 5 to take a 1-point lead in the fourth quarter, it’s a very valuable play.
That’s EPA. And a negative EPA is bad. You want a + positive EPA. Numbers like -12 are bad and EPA like -21 is really, really bad.
As you can see, the 49ers defense has been really bad in the last five weeks.
We also know that the 49ers defense has been bad by traditional numbers too, allowing at least 23 points in five of their last six games. If the Rams don’t have the firepower to put up at least 24 points (they scored 23 in OT last time) with Puka Nacua, something is off.
When you look at the Cardinals EPA numbers, you can see that they’re not great, but they’re not as bad as San Francisco:
And since Jacoby Brissett took over, look at Arizona’s offense: It’s not just good, it’s PRETTY good! The 49ers have also had some strong games with Mac Jones. I guess the lesson here is don’t pay quarterbacks like Brock Purdy and Kyler Murray, which is too late for the 49ers and Cardinals to reverse.
More Team Stats
You might think “Well maybe the Cardinals got those points by being lucky and aren’t so stout offensively and defensively”. Maybe but they rank very close to the 49ers in a lot of categories:
- 3rd down conversions: Cardinals 4th, 49ers 3rd
- Red zone conversions: Cardinals 15th, 49ers 20th
- Net yards per pass attempt: Cardinals 27th, 49ers 9th
- Yards per carry: Cardinals 17th, 49ers 32nd
- Time of possession: Cardinals 3rd, 49ers 9th
- 3rd down defense: Cardinals 10th, 49ers 18th
- Red zone defense: Cardinals 12th, 49ers 8th
- NY/A allowed: Cardinals 10th, 49ers 21st
- YPC allowed: Cardinals 18th, 49ers 14th
The only times they really flip is when we compare their offensive passing and rushing numbers. The 49ers are last in yards per carry despite having Christian McCaffrey, but they out-pace the Cardinals through the air. But that was with Murray starting the majority of Arizona’s games. Could the Cardinals be a more complete team now with Brissett replacing him?
Marvin Harrison Jr. is averaging more yards per catch, more yards per target, and more first downs per attempt with Brissett as the QB.
Trey McBride has scored four touchdowns on 33 targets from Brissett, compared to 1 touchdown on 42 attempts from Murray.
Michael Wilson has gone from an absurdly bad 2.9 yards per target with Murray to a really good 77% catch rate and 11.2 yards per target with Brissett. Wilson is actually a good receiver again!
The Cardinals just put Murray on IR citing an injury, but it really just looks like he was permanently benched for a career backup journeyman who is outplaying him. Mac Jones may have replaced Brock Purdy too, but that’s not as clear, nor is it quite as obvious if Jones gives the 49ers a better chance to win.
The 49ers also aren’t getting back Nick Bosa or Fred Warner this season. Brandon Aiyuk has stayed on PUP. Ricky Pearsall isn’t practicing. Trent Williams is hurt. McCaffrey might set a new career-high in catches and receiving yards and a career-low in yards per carry.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals just debuted first round pick Walter Nolen and he wasted no time in trying to prove that he might have been the best all-around defensive player in the class.
Who is the more dangerous team left on the Rams schedule?
The 49ers, who they play this week and absolutely need to beat because of San Francisco’s conference and division records and head-to-head record…or a Cardinals team they have to play twice and has played slightly better than San Francisco this season (other than actually winning and losing) and seems to just now be taking off with Brissett as the quarterback?
The Cardinals seem like the lesser threat because they’re 3-5 and they’re the Cardinals. But right now as of November 6th and ignoring their records, Arizona has been outplaying San Francisco and that could continue through the rest of the season.
