The Bundesliga returns from its winter break at the weekend, so now seems like a good time to take stock and assess the season so far. What are the big stories from the Hinrunde? Have there been any big shocks?
Or some feel good stories to help us through these long winter days?
Perhaps I can interest you in the highlights from this splendid Mainz effort, claiming a point against Bayern Munich, at the Allianz Arena and while they were rooted to the bottom of the table.
Opportunities to laugh at Bayern have been slim pickings this season, so we’ve got to make the most of what we are offered.
Here is how Matchday 15 played out just before Christmas:
Results
Here are the results from Matchday 15:
Borussia Dortmund 2-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach
Augsburg 0-0 Werder Bremen
FC Köln 0-1 Union Berlin
Hamburger SV 1-1 Eintracht Frankfurt
VfB Stuttgart 0-0 Hoffenheim
Wolfsburg 3-4 Freiburg
RB Leipzig 1-3 Bayer Leverkusen
Mainz 0-0 St. Pauli
FC Heidenheim 0-4 Bayern Munich
Standings
The Hinrunde Highlights
I spent some time looking at the Bundesliga table, at what is close to the halfway point in the season (it bugs me that this is not in-line with the winterpause), and picked out what I think are the “highlights” so far. In all honesty the Bundesliga feels pretty uneventful this season, so it was slim pickings. But we are slaves to the content, so I’ll take all the pickings I can get.
Bayern Munich’s Evil Empire Rolls On
Look, none of us are pleased about it. But we do have to talk about it. Bayern Munich are very, very good, even by their standards. They are still unbeaten after 15 games, and they have only dropped points twice, against Union Berlin and Mainz. When you look at the underlying numbers, they were a little unlucky not to come away with the win against Union, and they absolutely pasted Mainz, so you could argue that Bayern should be heading into the Rückrunde with a 100% record.
Die Roten capped the Hinrunde off in style, pasting a very poor Heidenheim side 4-0, but these big wins have become pretty common, and no opponent is safe.
Their lethal front three of Harry Kane, Michael Olise, and Luis Diaz have propelled Bayern to a staggering +44 goal difference after just 15 games, which is 30 goals better than second-placed Dortmund’s +14.
Bayern Munich have been incredibly dominant over the last decade, but lately they have shown signs of weakness. The numbers continued to look very, very good, but in the last few seasons I’ve been pretty critical of Die Roten and argued that their numbers are a little inflated. It just felt like they had a soft underbelly. If you could hang on for dear life when they were on the attack, you could sting them on the counter. It felt like far inferior teams found it much easier than they should to play through Bayern’s rest defense, and that showed up in the number of silly points they would drop. The same cannot be said this season.
I’m not 100% sure what has changed, but I think Vincent Kompany’s growth as a manager is a big part of it. I didn’t think much of Kompany at Burnley, and when he first came in at Bayern, I don’t think he gave me much reason to reassess. But it seems like he is learning fast, and he has made some changes to turn Bayern into a juggernaut that is among the very best in Europe this season. It brings me no pleasure to report this.
The New Boys Come Out Swinging
Moving on to something a little more uplifting, the promoted sides have probably been the biggest feel-good story so far. Both FC Köln and Hamburger SV have been competitive in the first half of the season, and neither looks likely to be returning to the 2. Bundesliga immediately.
Hamburg got off to a great start in their return to the Bundesliga, and while results have dipped since, they have given a good account of themselves in the first half of the season and they currently sit in 13th on 16 points. Predicting Ball gives them an 8.5% probability of being relegated, so they’re not entirely out of the woods, but I think they look good enough to keep themselves out of trouble in the Rückrunde.
FC Köln are currently in 11th place, also on 16 points, and with the exact same record as Hamburg (W4 D4 L7). But it feels like they’ve had a stronger season, having drawn plenty of attention thanks to their exciting attacking football and some big wins, including a 4-1 victory over HSV.
After a really hot start, Effzeh have struggled in the last couple months, picking up just two points from six games. But they gave a good account of themselves in many of those games and probably should have picked up more points on that run, including one or two wins.
It’s always nice when promoted teams can hit the ground running and put enough distance between them and the relegation battle. I will always root for the underdogs, but turnover also keeps the league fresh. With the playoffs generally favouring the Bundesliga side it’s usually only two teams coming up each season, so both surviving is a positive. Besides, the Bundesliga benefits from big teams like Köln and HSV in the league.
Mainz in the Mud
Finally, we need to discuss Mainz. This one is probably my biggest miss this season. I didn’t see Mainz being anywhere near the relegation zone, and yet they are not just in a battle; they are rock bottom with only eight points, four points from safety.
Mainz are bad. Their xGD puts them second bottom, just ahead of St. Pauli, with whom they were unfortunate to draw 0-0 just before the break.
Despite the underlying numbers painting a woeful picture, I’m still not convinced Mainz are one of the two worst teams in the league. They have certainly played that way in the first half of the season, but on paper they should have a lot more upside than everyone else in the relegation battle. Predicting Ball sees Mainz finishing 16th, in the playoff spot, and gives them a 38.5% probability of suffering (automatic) relegation. The model also rates five teams as worse than Mainz, including the other three teams I would consider relegation candidates: St. Pauli, Heidenheim, and Augsburg.
As surprising as it might be to see Mainz bottom of the table, if they don’t pick up their performances they are going to stay there. The fact that Mainz have to make up four points and claw their way past two other teams is a real problem given how they have been playing. To make matters worse, Die Nullfünfer are currently on track to qualify for the knockout stages of the UEFA Conference League, which would usually be good news, but right now it is just extra games they could do without. Could Mainz be the first team to be relegated and win a European trophy in the same season?
Your Thoughts?
What has been your highlight from the Bundesliga season so far? Let us know in the comments.
