Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, August 23 at 7:00 p.m. ET
- Network: CBS Sports Network
- Location: Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium — Bowling Green, KY
- Spread: Sam Houston (-10)
- Over/under: 61.5
- All-time series: WKU leads, 2-1
- Last meeting: WKU 31, Sam Houston 14 — October 16, 2024
- Current streak: WKU, 2 (2023-24)
Setting the scene
We made it. We finally made it.
All the preseason chatter, from the rankings to the watchlists to the predictions, all gets thrown on the back-burner this week as there is real, live, legitimate college football to consume. Our bodies have waited over seven months for a Saturday like this.
There are five games involving FBS teams and two of those will count toward the conference standings. The first is the highly-anticipated ranked Farmaggedon matchup between Iowa State and Kansas State in Ireland.
The second kicks off later that night, as Sam Houston and Western Kentucky clash in Bowling Green, KY.
While the Conference USA opponents are far from rivals, they did their fair share of rooting against one another last November. The Bearkats and Hilltoppers were contenders for the final spot in the 2024 CUSA Championship Game, and the Hilltoppers denied the Bearkats entry as Lucas Carneiro drained a 50-yard field goal with three seconds remaining in the regular season finale, catapulting WKU into the title game.
Not only did the Hilltoppers snub Sam Houston in that moment, but WKU is 2-0 against the Bearkats in the two years they’ve shared the CUSA. Sam Houston eyes revenge under first-year head coach Phil Longo, while WKU aims to keep the train rolling under longtime frontman Tyson Helton.
Sam Houston Bearkats outlook
Sam Houston scripted one of college football’s best stories in 2024. As a second-year FBS program, the Bearkats flipped from 3-9 to 10-3 in the span of a season — becoming the only CUSA team to reach double-digit wins. Sam Houston claimed its first bowl victory over Georgia Southern to cap a memorable campaign, but then the Bearkats as we knew it vanished.
Head coach K.C. Keeler departed after 11 seasons for Temple. Rising star defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity went up I-45 to North Texas. Key starters left in droves for other programs, finding new homes across the country at North Texas, Auburn, Duke, Virginia Tech, UAB, and Temple, to name a few. Entering the building is new head coach Phil Longo, an air raid disciple with recent offensive coordinator stops at Ole Miss, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Longo possesses familiarity with the program, serving as the OC at Sam Houston from 2014-16 during the Bearkats’ stint in the FCS.
Longo is tasked with reloading a team laden with newcomers, including 33 players who arrived as recently as June. The newcomer influence is especially evident on the defensive side of the ball, although there are a slew of transfers that should start on offense as well.
One of the few incumbent starters the Bearkats return is quarterback Hunter Watson, a tough-nosed quarterback who bruised his way to 647 rushing yards and nine touchdowns along with 1,811 passing yards, 12 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. Watson arrived from JUCO and won a 3-man camp battle last summer, but under a revamped coaching staff, he must earn it again. Experience is Watson’s advantage, but the other quarterbacks — redshirt freshman Mabrey Mettauer and true freshman Landyn Locke — are advantaged in their experience under Longo’s system.
Longo’s ties with Mettauer and Locke extend back to Wisconsin. Mettauer was a backup quarterback for the Badgers, throwing one pass during a blowout win over Purdue last October. Meanwhile, Locke — whose brother Braedyn started for the Badgers last year — committed to Wisconsin in the early signing period but transferred later in the offseason after Longo onboarded at Sam Houston. Longo won’t name a starter until Friday, keeping WKU guessing during its film study sessions.
The first-year head coach emphasized his affinity to utilize depth, citing how limiting A.J. Brown’s snaps at Ole Miss kept fresh legs and skyrocketed his production, while simultaneously developing Elijah Moore. Therefore, plenty of reserves should rotate in and out of this conference opener.
While Longo is renowned for the air raid, perhaps his strongest position group on this roster is running back. Sam Houston is beaming with experience at the position, bringing in transfers Shane Porter (Kansas State/North Texas), Elijah Green (North Carolina/Indiana), and Alton McCaskill (Houston/Arizona State/Colorado). Porter rushed for 648 yards with the Mean Green last year, Green posted 558 under Longo at UNC in 2022, while McCaskill produced 961 yards and 16 touchdowns as a true freshman at Houston back in 2021.
The offensive line is the only position group featuring an All-CUSA selection from 2024, returning Second Team honoree James Dawn II at guard. Rhett Larson and Kolt Dietrich also started a bulk of last season, providing much-needed continuity to the team. Replacing Ethan Hagler at center will be a tall task, but Longo has rotated in three transfers at center throughout fall camp.
Sam Houston ranked 122nd in passing offense last year, but Longo offenses typically emphasize the aerial attack. Deep threat Qua’Vez Humphreys and Michael Phoenix II return as experienced receivers to lead the group, accounting for seven of the Bearkats’ 15 receiving touchdowns in 2024. Several transfers, including Arizona State’s Kaleb Black, can make immediate impact at this position, which should see more utilization in 2025.
Defense was the unit which drove the Bearkats to 10 wins last season, ranking 21st in scoring defense, 13th in passing defense, 22nd in total defense, and 7th in turnovers forced. However, new coordinator Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay is working with much different personnel with zero returning starters. Inside linebacker CJ Johnson ranked 17th on the unit with 16 tackles, yet is the team’s returning leader in the category.
Plenty of transfer funneled in to assist Johnson and Co. on defense. One instant playmaker should be former outside linebacker Antavious Fish, who racked up 95 tackles at Akron in 2023 and 68 in 2024. Another key transfer is Alonzo Edwards Jr. who started 13 games at North Texas from 2022-23, totaling 69 tackles and six tackles for loss in that timespan. Also toting vast experience is former Northern Illinois and Bowling Green strong safety, a former First Team All-MAC selection with 280 tackles and three interceptions to his name since 2020.
The secondary possesses the most FBS experience of the three levels of defense, and the front seven will consist of a combination of small-school transfers and incumbent reserves. Keelan Cox, AJ Sargent, and Zeiqui Lawton are among the transfers joining the defensive line, while the linebacking corps features incumbents like CJ Johnson and Ca’lub Holloway. Turnover production was a trademark of Sam Houston’s defense in 2025, and even amidst a chaotic offseason of change, the Bearkats hope to sustain that trend in this Week 0 conference matchup.
WKU Hilltoppers outlook
The WKU Hilltoppers are the beacon of consistency in Conference USA. Tyson Helton has completed six years at the helm, producing eight or nine wins in five of them — only failing to record a winning record during the 2020 pandemic season.
Those 8 and 9-win seasons are sometimes accompanied by CUSA Championship Game appearances, as they were in 2021 and 2024, but the Hilltoppers remain on a quest for their first league title since 2016 when Jeff Brohm was head coach. In 2025, there’s no acclimation period as WKU commences conference play right off the bat in Week 0, making this game against Sam Houston critical to the Hilltoppers’ season goals.
WKU qualified for the CUSA title game last year and retained a head coach, but the team makeup is much different from 2024. Only one offensive and three defensive starters return to the fold, and Helton brought on a new offensive coordinator in Rick Bowie, while promoting defensive backs coach Da’Von Brown and inside linebackers coach Davis Merritt to co-defensive coordinators to fill the vacancy left by Tyson Summers.
Helton can’t hold onto offensive coordinators long, and that’s a repercussion of WKU’s annual success on that side of the ball. Zach Kittley and Ben Arbuckle were among Helton’s previous OCs, and Bowie will be the sixth different man to hold the title in six years. Bowie arrives from Abilene Christian where he produced the fourth-best total offense and seventh-best passing offense in the FCS. Arriving with Bowie is quarterback Maverick McIvor, who diced defenses with 3,847 yards, 30 touchdowns, and seven interceptions in 2024 at Abilene Christian.
The seventh-year senior spent three years at Texas Tech before earning a starting gig in the FCS, and he nearly took down his former school in the 2024 opener with 506 passing yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions in a 52-51 overtime loss to the Red Raiders. WKU has produced the nation’s leading passer four times since 2014 and twice under Helton, and the gunslinging McIvory looks to produce Bailey Zappe or Austin Reed inspired numbers in this pass-happy offense.
WKU loses its top four leaders in receiving yards from 2024, but K.D. Hutchinson is back as a potential No. 1 option for McIvor in 2025. Hutchinson totaled 383 yards on 25 receptions last year, shattering a career-high in an 88-yard, 1-touchdown performance at Sam Houston last October. Veteran receivers joining Hutchinson include Jairus Mack (Charlotte) and Kelby Williams (Old Dominion), who have both recorded over 400 yards in a season. Wisconsin transfer Quincy Burroughs and FCS All-American Matthew Henry (64 receptions, 1,211 yards at Western Illinois in 2024) also join an offense which should see no shortage of dropbacks Saturday.
The Hilltoppers leaned more on the run than usual last season, producing its first 650+ yard rusher since 2019 as Elijah Young broke free for 833 yards. Replacing Young in the backfield could be a committee featuring returning backup George Hart III and FCS transfers La’Vell Wright and Jaden McGill. But pass-catching is an essential to running backs in this offense, and that skillset could dictate playing time Saturday.
The lone returning starter on offense is also WKU’s only returning All-CUSA selection. Offensive tackle Marshall Jackson is equipped with 22 starts on the Hilltoppers’ line, but he might be the only 2024 roster member starting in 2025, as WKU leaned heavily on the portal to fortify this group.
While WKU is traditionally known for its quarterback talent and offensive firepower, the Hilltoppers concocted one of their stronger defenses in recent memory. They held opponents to 24.6 points per game to rank 64th nationally, with six opponents failing to exceed 17 points and only three eclipsing 30.
Outside linebacker Anthony Brackenridge, cornerback Kent Robinson, and free safety Demarko Williams are the three starters back on a team that loses each of its top 12 tacklers from a year ago. The most substantial loss is lockdown cornerback Upton Stout, who warranted a third round NFL Draft selection in April. Taking on the challenge of filling that void is likely Houston transfer Jalen Emery. In 2022, Emery thrived with 26 tackles (22 solo) and seven pass breakups for the Cougars. Another key defensive back addition is Jaylen Lewis who registered 43 tackles and six deflections while starting half of Temple’s games last year — and he could be relied upon heavily in the slot.
WKU can find comfort in the amount of experience to go around its transfer-laden defense. New defensive ends Jayden Gray (Louisiana Tech) and Dominic Oliver (San Diego State) earned decent reps at their former schools. Meanwhile, inside linebacker Jaylen Wester tallied 53 tackles and a team-high eight tackles for loss at Florida Atlantic in 2023, while strong safety Al-Ma’hi Ali ranked third on Charlotte in tackles (51), tied for first in interceptions (2), and checked in at second in pass deflections (7) last season in the American Conference.
Another area WKU possesses veteran talent in is special teams. Cole Maynard was one of 15 punters named to the Ray Guy Award preseason watchlist, while John Cannon sunk 12-of-16 field goals at South Florida last year, nailing a clutch kick to send the Hawaii Bowl into the first of five overtimes.
Prediction
Predicting Week 0 and Week 1 games is especially difficult in an era heavily influenced by the transfer portal and frequent coaching changes. While the logos, school colors, and Tyson Helton’s presence remain the same, Sam Houston and WKU are completely different teams than the ones that met in Huntsville last October.
Sam Houston’s excellent defense was completely zapped by the portal, but the Bearkats utilized the portal to rebuild a new one. WKU’s highly-regarded offense suffered a somewhat similar fate, and the Hilltoppers also reloaded with a batch of newcomers.
WKU’s transfer class brought in more FBS starter-level talent and flaunts more experience, which could be a difference-maker in this matchup. The Hilltoppers are headlined by FCS All-American quarterback Maverick McIvor, who is itching to throw for 300+ yards while operating under a familiar offensive coordinator in Rick Bowie. WKU also receives homefield advantage in this Week 0 clash — a luxury Sam Houston won’t enjoy in 2025 due to the construction on Bowers Stadium. The Hilltoppers use those advantages as McIvor leads an aerial-driven team to a multi-score victory.
Prediction: WKU 35, Sam Houston 16
