Northwestern
Overall Record: 15 – 18
Big 10 Record: 5 – 15
Previous 3 Games
3/11: W – 74 – 61 vs Indiana @ Big Ten Tournament
3/10: W – 76 – 66 vs Penn State @ Big Ten Tournament
3/7: L – 66 – 67 vs Minnesota @ Away
Personnel
Starters
Bench
Injury Report
6’11” center Arrinten Page has missed the last two contests due to an undisclosed illness. I have no idea if he’s going to play tonight, but my inclination is that a player who, at best, is too sick to play a single minute against Indiana yesterday, will be limited, even if he’s available
tonight.
In other words, expect Page to put up 20 & 10 because I said he’s probably out.
Key Analytics
(Per KenPom.com – National Rank / Big 10 Rank in ())
KenPom Ranking – 57
Offense
Adjusted Efficiency: 117.5 (61) – Big 10 Only: 106.1 (13)
Adjusted Tempo: 65.2 (299) – Big 10 Only: 64.5 (13)
Average Possession Length: 17.7 (203) – Big 10 Only: 19.1 (16)
Effective Field Goal%: 51.5 (174) – Big 10 Only: 49.2 (14)
Offensive Rebound%: 28.1 (263) – Big 10 Only: 26.6 (14)
Three Point%: 32.8 (242) – Big 10 Only: 32.6 (13)
Two Point %: 52.8 (143) – Big 10 Only: 49.4 (17)
Defense
Adjusted Efficiency: 103.9 (74) – Big 10 Only: 116.2 (15)
Adjusted Tempo: 65.2 (299) – Big 10 Only: 64.5 (13)
Average Possession Length: 19.1 (364) – Big 10 Only: 19.1 (16)
Effective Field Goal%: 50.8 (148) – Big 10 Only: 54.3 (12)
Offensive Rebound%: 34.3 (263) – Big 10 Only: 35.1 (18)
Three Point%: 33.3 (141) – Big 10 Only: 36 (14)
Two Point %: 51.4 (159) – Big 10 Only: 54.5 (10)
Offense
Offensive Rebounding
Purdue Offense: 33.5 (5)
Northwestern Defense: 35.1 (18)
Thoughts:
Purdue dominated the boards against the Wildcats a scant 9 days ago. The Boilermakers pulled down 29 total boards, including 9 offensive rebounds, to Northwestern’s 15, and that was with Arrinten Page in the lineup (granted, he led the team with 3 rebounds).
Cluff and TKR need to dominate the glass again tonight and punish Chris Collins for essentially putting nothing but guards and wings on the court outside of freshman Tyler Kopp. Matt Painter brought Cluff in to help fix last season’s rebounding issues, and the big man from Australia has done just that. His offensive rebounding percentage of 17.1 is 10th in the nation. TKR isn’t too shabby either, with a 14.1% that ranks 55th in the nation.
Defense
Nick Martinelli
*Note: This section is an update from the March 3rd Northwestern preview.
If Nick Martinelli doesn’t score and score big, Northwestern can’t win this game. The problem, of course, is that Martinelli is just the sort of athletic wing that gives Purdue fits. He attacks the basket and uses his size and strength to finish around the rim. Even worse, he plays with an energy level that Purdue has failed to match in recent games, outside of TKR and Benter.
Update:
Martinelli put up 28 points against the beleaguered Boilermaker defense, and the Wildcats were a few plays away from pulling the road upset. Since the Purdue game, Martinelli has maintained his scoring form, putting up 23, 24, and 28, respectively.
Nothing has changed. If Purdue can figure out a way to shut off Martinelli’s water, the Wildcats are doomed. That’s easy to type and extremely difficult to achieve.
CJ Cox will start off on Martinelli, but will he end up on Martinelli? Look for Northwestern to try to get a switch early in the possession, then clear out for Martinelli late and let him attack whatever unfortunate front-court player draws the assignment. He’s scored 20+ points in the last three games, and Northwestern has won all of those games.
Update:
CJ Cox started on Martinelli, but Purdue’s “switch everything” trainwreck of a defense often resulted in Martinelli torturing Oscar Cluff late in the clock. I’d like to say that will change in this game, but color me skeptical. Purdue literally has 1 competent perimeter defender in the regular rotation, but they can’t seem to match him up with the opponent’s best perimeter scorer.
It feels a little late in the season for that to change, but hope springs eternal.
If Purdue can hold him under 20 points, it’s going to be tough for Northwestern to score enough to win. If he goes for 25+ as he did against Indiana and Maryland, the Boilermakers might be in trouble. He’s literally the first, second, and third line on the Northwestern scouting report, I’d like to think the coaching staff can figure out a way to slow him down.
Update:
Martinelli went off for 28, and Purdue needed 27 from CJ Cox to pull out the four-point win. I’d like to think the coaching staff can figure out a way to slow him down, but I’m going to need to see it to believe it. Odds are, Purdue’s is going to need someone else to bust out a big game to match Martinelli. Consider me a Purdue defense skeptic.
Brief Thoughts
I would have rather played Indiana. Purdue doesn’t match up well with Northwestern’s size on the perimeter. Purdue could punish them in the post, but Northwestern will send the hard double and try to bait the Boilermakers into taking outside shots.
Braden Smith needs to keep in mind that the wide-open player is often wide open for a reason. Chris Collins will happily allow CJ Cox to fire away from deep if it means Purdue doesn’t gut his defense in the post. I’d like to see fewer pick-and-rolls and more straight post-ups for Trey and Cluff in this game. If nothing else, missing post-up shots should allow for more offensive rebounding opportunities.
Purdue can’t play into Northwestern’s hands and go away from its clear advantage in the post.
Predictions
KenPom
Purdue: 79
Northwestern: 69
Drew
Purdue: Don’t know
Northwestern: Prefer not to say
Looking Into My Crystal Ball
I smashed my crystal ball with a hammer and tossed the shards into the river. I’m out of the prognostication game. Purdue should win this game; it shouldn’t be close. Sometimes Purdue plays like a top 10 team, sometimes they play like they’ve got better things to do.
I have no idea which version of the Boilermakers will show up tonight, but I’d love to see Painter break out Top 10 Purdue for the postseason.
