The Mavericks have won five of their eight December games, but they’re coming off a narrow loss in Philadelphia where Tyrese Maxey’s fourth-quarter burst proved too much to overcome. Despite a strong performance from their frontcourt — Cooper Flagg and Anthony Davis each scored 24 — Dallas fell 121–114 after surrendering 20 offensive rebounds and committing 18 turnovers.
New Orleans, meanwhile, is riding a season-best four-game win streak, leaning on high-efficiency spurts from Zion Williamson and
a suddenly productive bench unit. They just dropped 66 bench points on Indiana and opened that game with a 44-point quarter — their best start of the year. But even with that surge, the Pelicans sit just 7–22 on the season and rank near the bottom of the league in defensive rating. If Dallas can manage the early tempo and control the glass, this matchup remains winnable — especially with Flagg active and Davis stabilizing the paint.
Game Fixtures
December 22, 2025 — Dallas Mavericks (11–18, 3–8 Away) at New Orleans Pelicans (7–22, 5–12 Home)
Tipoff: 7:00 PM CT — Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA
How To Watch: KFAA-TV, Mavs.com
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook (as of 6:30 AM CST)
Spread: DAL +1.5 (-115) / NOP -1.5 (-105)
Total: 239.5 (O -105 / U -115)
Moneyline: DAL +108 / NOP -112
Game Sides
Lean: Mavericks +1.5 (contingent on Cooper Flagg playing)
Lean: Under 239.5
If Cooper Flagg is active, Dallas has the frontcourt scoring and defensive versatility to stay inside this number. Anthony Davis has stabilized the paint on both ends, and P.J. Washington’s rebounding and switching on the perimeter matter against a Pelicans team that still struggles to string together clean half-court possessions.
Despite the four-game win streak, New Orleans remains one of the league’s poorest defensive teams by rating, and that structural issue hasn’t vanished. When the Pelicans can’t live off transition bursts or early shot-clock chaos, their defense is still vulnerable — particularly against frontcourts that can score without relying on pace.
The under case starts with pace. Dallas is top five in fewest possessions per game this season. New Orleans, meanwhile, sits closer to league average in pace and has relied on early-clock bursts rather than sustained speed. If Dallas avoids live-ball turnovers, this game is far more likely to settle than sprint.
More importantly, Dallas has quietly been one of the better defensive teams in the league by rating, ranking inside the top ten on the season. That defensive competence shows up most clearly when games slow—Dallas is comfortable switching, protecting the paint, and forcing opponents into late-clock decisions. New Orleans’ offensive surges have come when games stay chaotic; when possessions stack and reads matter, their efficiency drops.
At 239.5, the total is priced in a full-speed game with clean scoring on both sides. That’s a fragile assumption. If Dallas controls pace even modestly and the game trends toward half-court basketball after the opening stretch, the under becomes far more viable than the number suggests.
Player Props
Naji Marshall over 14.5 points (-107)
Marshall’s role has quietly expanded over the last four games, starting in place of Max Christie — a look Jason Kidd appears comfortable with. The minutes have followed. Marshall has played 32+ minutes in six of his last seven, and the scoring has come organically: 22, 16, 15, and 17 points in his last four contests—in fact, you have to go back to the Denver game to find him under this total. He’s not shot-hunting, but he’s consistently getting downhill, drawing fouls, and finishing efficiently around the rim. Against a Pelicans defense that still struggles to contain secondary scorers, this line feels a step behind his current usage.
Derik Queen over 25.5 PRA (-107)
Queen has been one of New Orleans’ most reliable interior engines over the past two weeks, and the production has been steady rather than matchup-dependent. He’s averaging 15.8 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 5.6 assists in December, with multiple games clearing this PRA number comfortably. He also posted a strong all-around line in Dallas earlier this season, and his minutes have remained secure even as the Pelicans shuffle lineups. With Dallas likely prioritizing Zion’s drives and Murphy’s perimeter shooting, Queen should continue to find space to accumulate across all three categories.
