The record-setting Nittany Lion wrestling team hits the road in their toughest dual meet outside of the commonwealth this week, taking on the last team not named Penn State to win the national team title.
Carver Hawkeye is one of the toughest places to wrestle in the nation, and it’s been known to have some juju against excellent wrestlers in the past (just ask Mark Hall about wrestling there). This week, PSU is the clear favorites in the dual and most matchups, but there could be some interesting outcomes on the mat and off.
One of the most interesting things to pay attention to this week is at 197, with former Division III national champ Massoma Endene in the top five; in media availability this week, Iowa head coach Tom Brands announced, with little additional info, that Endene is no longer with the program and his bio no longer exists on the team’s site. That means some question marks and a hole in Iowa’s lineup at one of the weights they hoped to limit PSU’s bonus capabilities; with how Josh Barr is looking, it was a slim chance that Endene would win, but it was a chance. Now, the Hawkeyes are looking at either true freshman Harvey Ludington having his redshirt pulled, redshirt freshman Brody Sampson stepping in as a sacrificial lamb, or sophomore Gabe Arnold bumping up likely two weights to fill in. Of those three, the most likely to keep it close is Ludington – but he’s already used some of his attached matches, so if he’s the choice he’ll likely be pulled completely off redshirt.
Prior to the announcement of Endene’s departure, there were a few other intriguing things to watch out for in the match; none comes close to the above, but the interest is still there. Returning 3rd place all-American Luke Lilledahl takes on one of the few dudes to beat him on the mat in the last year, but has Dean Peterson changed since he left Rutgers – and how much has Luke changed? Also, there’s two #1 vs #3 matchups on the docket – but unfortunately for the Hawks, their two number three grapplers are going up against the two most dominant guys on the Nittany Lion roster in Mitchell Mesenbrink and Levi Haines.
And in the two bouts where, on paper, Iowa is absolutely favored (184 and 285) – there’s question marks on whether Cole Mirasola will be able to hang with the top of the heavyweights come March, and this match against Ben Kueter will go a long way to answering some of those questions. As will Rocco Welsh’s match against UI’s only #1 wrestler, Angelo Ferrari – Ferrari wrestles a different style than most, and Cael’s teams are focused on March (not January) so this may be more of a feeling-out bout.
Regardless, there should be fireworks – and, if we’re lucky, some more Hawkeye tears (even if they’re not the ones that wrestlestat inexplicably is predicting).
How To Watch
What: #1 Penn State vs #4 Iowa*
Where: Carver Hawkeye Arena
When: Friday, January 16, 7PM EST
Audio: Free (via GoPSUSports)
Video: Big Ten Network
Lineup
125 – Match of the Meet #1
There’s rumors that Cael makes sure he’s the only four-time undefeated NCAA wrestler by either intentionally or inadvertently sabotaging his freshmen wrestlers, and Luke’s bout against Dean Peterson in the Rutgers dual last year was the one for the then-freshman that made sure he wouldn’t meet his coach’s record. Despite the head-to-head victory and his opponent’s top ten ranking, Luke performs his best on the biggest stages and I expect he’ll win this pretty decisively, even if the score doesn’t follow that. It may be within two points near the end, but it won’t feel like Lilledahl is in danger of losing.
Prediction: Lilledahl by decision
Score: PSU 3, UI 0
133 LBS
Drake Ayala’s been around the Hawkeye program for quite some time, and Blaze may be a prime target for a quintessential Carvering. But he’s so locked in that I really doubt it – and Ayala’s not impressed me near enough to think that he can keep up with Blaze’s quickness. I’m closer to picking bonus for the freshman than I am a loss, despite what wrestlestat predicts.
Prediction: Blaze by decision
Score: PSU 6, UI 0
141 LBS
…speaking of Carvering.
Last season, at the collegiate duals, Penn State took on LIttle Rock and Braeden Davis took down Nasir Bailey via a fun score of 1-0. If last week’s any indication, Davis is raring to go and ready to score more points than that; this is the enemiest of enemy territories, though, and I’ve got to pick one guy to get upset; to me, the one who’s been back on the mat (attached, at least) most recently is the most likely to have a slip up.
Prediction: Bailey by decision
Score: PSU 6, UI 3
149 LBS
I’m such a SVN fan and I’m willing him to his first national championship this year, and I think he does it pretty handily. He’s facing another ranked wrestler, but Block is the lowest ranked of all Iowa wrestlers, and Shayne just exudes gratitude and happiness. He doesn’t care, either, about being taken down – so I bet he’ll get the bonus by the last few seconds of the bout.
Prediction: Van Ness by major decision
Score: PSU 10, UI 3
157 LBS
The other true freshman in the lineup feels even less likely than Blaze to pick up his first loss in Iowa City this week, facing another Hawkeye transfer, this one also from Little Rock (after starting out in Stillwater). This bout will look incredibly frustrating for Duke, who’ll be stymied by strong defense (and stalling on the black-clad wrestler, while the audience will clamor for Duke to be hit for that same call), but in the end, I’m expecting the true freshman to prevail, having the only offensive points of this weight.
Prediction: Duke by decision
Score: PSU 13, UI 3
165 LBS
It’s been nearly a year and two matchups since Mikey Caliendo was tech falled by Mitchell Mesenbrink, but I’m a woman of my word and will be predicting straight techs for the Hodge favorite. So far this season, Caliendo hasn’t shown the offensive firepower of previous years, and I’m not sure if that’s on him or his coaching; regardless, Mitch may love to scrap with Mikey, but I love to see him dominate him.
Prediction: Mesenbrink by tech fall
Score: PSU 18, UI 3
174 LBS
The last time these two met on the mat, in the NCAA tournament, Levi got bonus points. Despite Haines being inarguably better this year than last, and thus objectively still better on paper than Kennedy, I don’t see bonus in this bout; PK will be coached to play things close to the vest, and will be hoping to avoid giving up extra unnecessary points instead of shooting to win.
Prediction: Levi by decision
Score: PSU 21, UI 3
184 LBS – Match of the Meet #2
This is the first of two bouts that sees the Hawkeye favored on paper, and this one should be another frustrating one for PSU fans and the wrestler in blue himself. Angelo’s style can be somewhat unorthodox, and he seemingly frustrated Carter Starocci to no end last season in his redshirt year. This will be the first of up to three times these two will face each other on the year, and this will be illuminating for Welsh but he’ll struggle to get the wing – I expect something like a 2-1 loss, because of a controversial stalling call against the PSUer.
Prediction: Ferrari by decision
Score: PSU 21, UI 6
197 LBS
Would you believe me if I said this was my conservative prediction? If Ludington goes, I think this bout goes all seven minutes, but Josh still gets bonus. If it’s either of the other two options, there’ll be potential for a much quicker end – though Arnold has the potential to stall his way to a full match, depending on how much weight he gives up.
Prediction: Barr by major decision
Score: PSU 25, UI 6
285 LBS
Kueter’s a home town returning all-American, and he’s looking better this season than last. Cole still is feeling things out as a redshirt freshman, trying different tactics against wrestlers that are mostly bigger than he is; he pulled out the victory last weekend in the Rutgers dual, but this week is a much taller task, no matter what wrestlestat says.
Prediction: Kueter by major decision
Score: PSU 25, UI 10
Overall score prediction: Penn State 25, Iowa 10
*The Penn State athletic department, in its official capacity, uses Intermat’s Tournament Power Index in all its match literature; I’m using Intermat’s Dual Meet Rankings because this happens to be a dual. Penn State is #1 in both rankings; Iowa is #4 in the Dual rankings, and #3 in the Tournament rankings (for now).
