For college basketball, the second Sunday in March is a sacred day. Selection Sunday is the day the public finds out the NCAA Tournament men’s and women’s brackets.
But Saturday is a far more important day for No. 17 Maryland women’s basketball this season. For the women’s tournament, the pageantry of Selection Sunday has changed for this year, as first and second round host sites will be announced the day before.
Each top-four seed gets to host in the women’s March Madness tournament. Maryland has
hosted four of the last five seasons not affected by COVID.
This season, the Terps are on the bubble of hosting. Saturday, in conjunction with Sunday, will reveal their road.
Heading into last week’s Big Ten Tournament, it seemed like Maryland would only need to win one game to essentially secure a hosting position. It didn’t — it was upset by Oregon, 73-68.
That said, with the major conference tournaments wrapped up, the Terps still have a solid chance to host.
Heading into selection weekend, there are eight teams seemingly on the hosting bubble: No. 12 West Virginia, No. 10 Oklahoma, No. 17 Maryland, No. 18 Minnesota, No. 20 Michigan State, No. 19 Ole Miss, No. 16 Kentucky and No. 15 North Carolina.
West Virginia won the Big 12 championship — it wasn’t slated to host prior to the conference tournament, but now, it is essentially a lock to do so. The other four spots, however, seem up for grabs.
Fellow Big Ten opponents Minnesota and Michigan State also lost their first Big Ten tournament games. The Terps have head-to-head wins over both teams and the same number of losses. Maryland would seem to have the edge on both of those teams.
In the SEC, Oklahoma has one fewer loss than the Terps in an equally strong conference. It would likely have a better chance to host than the Terps, having won a conference tournament game. That should be the second No. 4-seed.
The other two SEC teams on the bubble are Kentucky and Ole Miss. Maryland has the head-to-head win over the Wildcats, who have 10 losses. Ole Miss has 11 losses, and despite two wins over No. 6 Vanderbilt and a win over Oklahoma, the Rebels likely have lost too many games to host.
North Carolina has a strong case to host, having made it to the ACC semifinals and tallied seven losses. But the ACC is a weaker conference, and the Tar Heels’ only ranked win was over No. 8 Duke, with whom it split the season series.
The Terps have the third-best case to host among the bubble teams. The last hosting team will likely be Minnesota. It won nine of its last 10 regular-season games with a plethora of wins over higher-ranked opponents.
So given that the four No. 4-seeds will likely be West Virginia, Oklahoma, Maryland and Minnesota, here are the 16 host sites.
Host sites:
No. 1-seeds: UConn, UCLA, Texas and South Carolina
No. 2-seeds: LSU, Vanderbilt, Iowa and Duke
No. 3-seeds: TCU, Michigan, Louisville and Ohio State
No. 4-seeds: West Virginia, Oklahoma, Maryland and Minnesota
Now, the rest of the bracket. Of the 18 teams in the Big Ten, 12 are slated to make the NCAA Tournament. Rutgers, Purdue, Northwestern, Penn State, Indiana and Wisconsin will not make the cut.
Among the other conferences, 10 teams from the SEC are projected to make the cut. Alongside eight from the Big 12, nine from the ACC and two from the Big East. The remaining 27 teams – 68 teams total because of the First Four – are from mid-majors.
According to these projections, Maryland would be the No. 4-seed in Region 1 – Fort Worth, with UConn as the No. 1-seed.
The Terps are projected to host Murray State in the first round and the winner of Kentucky and Richmond/Virginia in the Round of 32.
The remaining notable aspects of Maryland’s region are that it includes No. 3-seed Michigan – a team Maryland lost to at the end of the regular season. No. 2-seed LSU is also in the region.
This would potentially set up a rematch between Maryland and Kentucky in the Round of 32. The Terps got the best of the previous matchup in Puerto Rico, 74-66.
Ben’s prediction: How far will Maryland go?
Last season, the Terps fell to then-No. 1-seed South Carolina in the Sweet 16 and it will likely have a similar fate this season.
It should be able to get through the opening round against Murray State. The Racers are 28-3 entering the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament, having dominated those opponents. But their best win is over Boston College.
In the second round, it will likely be a rematch with Kentucky. Although the Terps will not have Kaylene Smikle like they did the first time around, the home-court advantage will be enough to will them to victory.
As for the Sweet 16, it was announced on Wednesday that UConn and Maryland will face off in Brooklyn next season at the Women’s Champions Classic on Dec. 5. But for this season, the Huskies are 34-0 and have destroyed everyone in their way. The Terps would have a very slim chance of winning that game.
Here’s the rest of the projected bracket:
The Final Four being all four No. 1-seeds isn’t a bold prediction, but they are clearly the best teams in the sport. UConn and UCLA will battle it out for the championship, and UCLA will win because it is a complete juggernaut – even more so than UConn.
The women’s tournament never has many upsets, and beyond the horde of teams fighting for the final host site spots, there likely isn’t going to be much depth and parity.
