With eight games remaining in the regular season, the San Diego Padres are up five games on the Arizona Diamondbacks for the last Wild Card spot in the National League. They play five of their last eight games at home, where their record is nine wins better than on the road.
By winning 10 of their last 11 and having 12 wins out of 15 games in September, their odds for making the postseason have crept up to 96.0% (per Fangraphs). They are also tied with both the Philadelphia Phillies and the Chicago
Cubs for the fourth and fifth playoff positions.
Baseball is crazy and unpredictable, but there are probably few Padres fans who saw this team bouncing back from the awful offensive performance we saw in the early months of the season to accomplish what we are seeing now.
The Dynamic Duo
A major reason for that change of fortune is the performance of two of the best players on the team who weren’t playing like they were capable of until after the All-Star break.
Both Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill had subpar starts to their year. And that start lasted until mid-July and the All-Star break.
Pre-break, Tatis was hitting a healthy .277 but notoriously lacked power, with his first home run not coming until May 30. He had a total of five from then to the break. Post-break, Tatis has hit .300 with a .989 OPS while clobbering 18 home runs. He has stolen 35 bases out of 48 attempts for the season and has more steals than in any other season of his career. With two more home runs, Tatis will be a member of the 25 homers and 25 steals club for the fourth time in his seven-year career.
Merrill had a much worse start to the season than Tatis. He appeared to be searching for his groove while chasing outside the zone at a high rate. His 98 strikeouts in 360 at-bats were the most on the team by a wide margin. He still strikes out more than any other Padre, but his 21% rate post-break is down from 27%.
More importantly, he is hitting the ball in the zone more, and his post-break .314 batting average beats his pre-break .219 average. Merrill has a .943 OPS after July 17 compared to a .628 OPS before the break. With his 26 home runs and 26 stolen bases in 30 attempts, Merrill has already become a member of the 25/25 club for the first time in his three-year career.
Few teams have two five-tool players, much less having them both playing at their peak at the same time. The success of Tatis and Merrill in the second half of the season goes a long way toward explaining the surge the Padres have had since July 17.
The core performs
The Padres’ core of Tatis, Merrill, Manny Machado, and Xander Bogaerts are all contributing to their winning over the past couple of months. Although Machado is still only hitting .220 for the season, his post-break numbers show improved performance. Machado is hitting .248 with a .739 OPS in the second half. They are the worst numbers of his career, but he still has 28 home runs and 84 RBI. Machado still leads the team in homers but was passed by Merrill in RBI during the past series in Colorado, 85 to 84. Machado’s defense has been elite this season with 10 OAA (Outs Above Average), the 95th percentile of all third basemen.
Bogaerts has hit well below his career norm or his previous career low. With a .226 average and .661 OPS, Bogaerts has done one thing well this year offensively. He is still getting on base at a normal rate. His .325 OBP is close to his career average OBP of .348. Bogaerts was a single short of the first cycle of his career in the final game versus Colorado. His tendency to finish strong is also playing out this season. For September, Bogaerts is hitting .302 with an .856 OPS, his best month of the season so far.
Bogaerts’ defense remains above average, and he is a steadying influence in the middle of the infield. His 3 OAA is in the 85th percentile for shortstops.
Bogaerts’ lack of production is less noticeable because of Ty France’s outstanding performance. The first baseman is having the best season of his career both offensively and defensively. It’s no stretch to say he deserves a Gold Glove for the second straight season. His .299 average and .879 OPS are better than any other season of his career outside of the shortened 2020 COVID season.
France has 21 home runs for the first time in his eight seasons with his second-most RBI. He has achieved all that without the benefit of playing in as many games. If France finishes by playing every day the rest of the regular season, he will have 133 games played, the least of any full season of his career.
Ethan Salas has a day
After being called up to the Padres on September 1, catcher and top prospect Ethan Salas went 1-for-16 in his first seven games with a triple as his first MLB hit. In those games, he caught both Michael King’s and Nick Pivetta’s starts. They both commented in their post-game interviews on his game prep along with his pitch receiving.
Salas started Sept. 16, catching Robbie Ray for the first time, and it was the best start of his time with the Padres. Salas improved Ray’s chances of a successful game with a dramatic ABS challenge that turned a walk to load the bases into a strikeout.
The real excitement for Salas occurred in his first at-bat in the second inning, when he sent a fastball 426 feet over the center field wall for his first major league home run. He followed that in the fifth inning with a blast over the right field wall for the second home run of his career. His three RBI and eight total bases contributed to the Padres’ 9-3 win and made history as the youngest catcher ever to homer twice in a game.
He also joined Machado as the only Padres to have homered twice in a game in their 20-year-old season. That list includes active players Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bryce Harper and Mike Trout. Miguel Cabrera, Jose Reyes, Andruw Jones, and Ken Griffey Jr. complete the list of players to have achieved that feat.
Rest for the weary
Besides putting themselves in a solid playoff position with the series against the Rockies, the Friars also succeeded in scoring enough runs to allow their tired high-leverage relievers to have three days off in a row.
Mason Miller, Adrián Morejón, and Bradgley Rodriguez have worked extensively and were especially taxed in the San Francisco series, right before going to Colorado.
Giving them those rest days sets the bullpen up for the final eight games of the season.
Bradgley Rodriguez, 22, has not pitched this much in his professional career. It shows in that we have seen his velocity drop in his last two appearances.
Morejón has been used so extensively that he has 82.0 innings pitched with eight games remaining in the regular schedule. That is by far the most he has thrown in his career, with many of those appearances consisting of more than one inning, and he has appeared in 72 games. No other regular reliever comes close; Wandy Peralta is second at 73.1 innings. Morejon has a 2.85 ERA with 101 strikeouts.
His willingness to pitch no matter the circumstance is remarkable in light of his free agency this offseason. Morejon was quoted in Kevin Acee’s Padres Daily newsletter on Sept. 13.
“I’m ready every day. Doesn’t matter the situation. In the fifth (inning) every time, doesn’t matter the score. I’m moving around.”
Mason Miller is in his fourth MLB season. He has never pitched more than 65 innings over the course of a year. In 61 games and 37 saves, Miller has pitched 64.1 innings and leads the team with a 1.12 ERA.
Rotation shuffle?
The starting rotation, as it stands now, would have Robbie Ray start the first game against the Dodgers next Tuesday. The off day on Monday would allow the team to switch Ray and King, the new order making King available the last game against the Diamondbacks, if needed. If a playoff berth is clinched before then, King could be saved for the first game of the playoffs. The Los Angeles Dodgers would see King-Ray-Pivetta, with Arizona seeing Mize-Buehler-King if those games remain important to the outcome.
The new No. 2 hitter
Outfielder Dustin Harris appears to have assumed the No. 2 spot in the batting order on the days that he starts. With no clear player stepping up to fill the role, Harris has come on strong of late. Since being called up to the Padres after being signed on Aug. 7, Harris has hit second as well as fifth through ninth in the order. Overall, he is hitting .314 with a .776 OPS while contributing two doubles, two triples, and 13 RBI. Hitting second, Harris has a .373/.406/.475 line, albeit in a small sample size of 20 games.
Roster changes and injury updates
France was away from the team for three days during the Giants series for the birth of his twin girls. Infielder Mason McCoy was called up to cover for his absence but never entered a game.
RHP Jason Adam began a rehab assignment with El Paso on Sept. 13. He was roughed up in his second appearance, allowing five runs on four hits and a walk. He could join the team next week.
Miguel Andujar is also on a rehab assignment with El Paso and is likely to rejoin the Padres this weekend against the Miami Marlins.
Gavin Sheets and Lucas Giolito are both in Arizona playing in the instructional league.
Joe Musgrove continues to try to recover from the setbacks occurring over the course of this season. His inability to bounce back after pitching has put a stop to his rehab progression. There has been no reported timeline for his next rehab step.
