Mets righthanded pitcher Nolan McLean was a thought of as a good prospect before the season. After being drafted in the third round of the 2023 draft, the righthanded pitcher quickly rose through the Mets’ system. He impressed enough that Baseball America had him as its 99th best prospect at the beginning of the year.
That’s pretty good, but nothing to make you think that
he’d rise from AA to the majors in a matter of months, and there was no way to predict that he’d dominate upon reaching the majors.
But dominate he has. He’s made four starts, giving up just four runs in 26.1 innings, while striking out 28. It might be the best initial quartet of starts ever.
His best effort came against the Phillies when he held them to just four hits in eight shutout innings.
This series, he’ll be making his fifth start, but this will be the first time he’ll be facing a team for the second time. Perhaps he can duplicate that dominant effort and once again keep the Phillies’ bats in check. But it wouldn’t be unusual for a team to get a second look at a rookie pitcher and have much more success. (Not to mention that this start will be at Citizens Bank Park as opposed to Citi Field, so it’s reasonable to expect a much higher baseline of competence from the Phillies.)
X-Men character of the series
Sublime
I wanted to come up with the perfect analogy for the New York Mets, so naturally I settled upon a character that is basically a sentient disease.
Sublime was a prehistoric virus that wanted to infect and ultimately supplant humanity. But when mutants emerged, the virus believed that they would eventually win out in the evolutionary race. Sublime eventually took over a human body, and calling itself John Sublime, began to plot against mutants, forming the Weapon Plus program as a way of neutralizing them.
The Aaron Nola watch
I feel comfortable in saying the Phillies are going to make the playoffs. But this week could go a long way in determining my confidence in how they’ll do when they get there. First, it would be nice if Trea Turner’s hamstring injury is not too severe. And it would be even nicer if Aaron Nola could pitch well on Monday night.
Nola has not looked good since his return, and really, with the exception of a few starts, has looked bad most of the season. In May, I speculated that Nola needs about a month to find his form. My hope is that in coming back from an extended, it might take him a similarly long time to round back into midseason form. Since it’s been almost a month, perhaps we’ll see the good version of Nola this time.
It isn’t like Nola has been completely awful. It just seems that in every start, there is one inning in which he stops being able to get anyone out. One baserunner leads to another, which leads to another, and all of a sudden, the opponent has four or more runs in the frame.
This issue has crept up throughout Nola’s career and is why people get wary about the fourth and fifth inning in games where he’s been cruising along up to that point. It just so happens that in his recent starts, that bad inning has come in the first.
It feels like the “spiral inning” has been an issue for multiple pitchers this season, notably Jesus Luzardo. Is there something about how their pitchers are coached to pitch out of the stretch, or perhaps something about how the catcher calls the game when runners get aboard? Or maybe it’s just apophenia on my part, and the Phillies aren’t any worse in that area than any other team.
Either way, it would be great if Nola could avoid any big inning tonight.
Additional thought about the series
We all know that the Phillies have struggled to win at Citi Field in recent years. But the Mets haven’t done all that well at Citizens Bank Park either. Since the start of 2023, the Mets are just 4-10 in games played in Philadelphia. So, the Phillies’ issues seem to be more stadium-related than team-related.
Many people were concerned that the Mets’ last sweep of the Phillies would propel the Mets and send the Phillies into a tailspin. But since that series, the Mets are just 4-6 as opposed to the Phillies’ 7-3. That’s kind of been the Mets’ thing all season: As soon as it looks like they’re going to go on a run, they stumble.
Trailing by seven games with just 19 games remaining (I know we’ll all feel better if it falls under 7/17), the Mets are running out of time. Getting to play a four-game series against the team you’re trailing is a gift, but unless they win this series, the math becomes very difficult for them. If the Mets lose the series, they should be more concerned about getting caught from behind by the Reds or Giants who are both four games behind them for the final wild card spot.
