Air Force (1-4) @ UNLV (5-0)
Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Date/Time: Saturday, October 11, 12:30 PM PST
Broadcast: CBSSN
Lines: UNLV -6.5, O/U 65.5
UNLV heads back to Allegiant Stadium for the
first time in over a month after defeating Wyoming 31-17 on the road. Dan Mullen and his squad are off to the best start since 1974 and enter the matchup as one of 15 undefeated teams in the nation. The Rebels look to keep the good going as they face off against an Air Force team that hasn’t won since week one.
UNLV
The Rebels’ offense has been a key factor in the team’s success. UNLV has averaged 35 points per game and has scored in 86% of its trips to the red zone. Quarterback Anthony Colandrea has led that effort and consistently demonstrates his reliability. He has reached 1,000 passing yards on the season with nine touchdowns.
Running back Jai’den Thomas has been the star of the offense. He leads the Mountain West with 489 rushing yards, and he ran for 94 yards against Wyoming last week and scored a touchdown on a reception. He has been an elusive and speedy back who has kept UNLV going. Running back Keyvone Lee has also continued to be a strong secondary option for the UNLV backfield. He reached the endzone last week against Wyoming as well.
Wide receiver Jaden Bradley keeps leading the receiver room, but he also showed flashes of his special team potential last week. He blocked a punt and returned another for a touchdown, both of which were huge plays in the winning effort. He has 420 receiving yards and two touchdowns on the season so far, and has been Colandrea’s top target.
Defensively, UNLV leads the nation in takeaways per game with 2.6. That’s the only stat where the defense is stellar. Defensive back Aamaris Brown has led that turnover effort with four picks, which is the most in the nation. UNLV still gives up too much yardage. On average, the defense gives up 270 yards through the air and 140 yards on the ground per game. It’s an effort that the team as a whole needs to work on.
Air Force
The Falcons are led by quarterback Liam Szarka. He has started the last two games for Air Force, and in that time, he has become the first player in Mountain West history with three straight 200-yard passing and 100-yard rushing games. He was the first to accomplish that task since Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson.
The key guy to look out for on this Air Force roster is wide receiver Cade Harris. He leads the Mountain West in all-purpose yards per game with 170. That stat also places him 8th in the nation. Harris is also the only FBS player in this century to have at least 320 receiving yards and 150 rushing yards through his team’s first three games of the season. He’s electric and someone to look out for on offense.
Wide receiver Quin Smith is also electric. He leads the Mountain West and is second in the nation in yards per catch with 27.5. He has had a catch for at least 30 yards in four of five games this season. Tight end Bruin Fleischmann was a standout last week in Air Force’s loss against Navy, hauling in six receptions for 166 yards.
The offense hasn’t been an issue for the Falcons; they run for over 240 yards per game, 8th best in the nation, and score over 35 points per game. The issue has been the defense. The defense has allowed over 40 points, 310 passing yards, and 160 rushing yards per game. Defensive lineman Payton Zdroik handles the dirty work on the defensive line, and coming into the season, he was on the Lombardi watch list. Despite that star power, the defense hasn’t been able to stop opposing offenses.
KEYS TO THE GAME
1. Win the Ground Game
Both UNLV and Air Force have stellar rushing attacks, but UNLV needs to have the better one in this matchup. Jai’den Thomas needs to set the tone early and run all over a weak rushing defense.
2. Keep the Turnover Train Rolling
UNLV’s defense has forced 13 turnovers this year. As they take on a triple-option offense, the defense has to force fumbles on the ground to be able to shift momentum in favor of UNLV.
3. Blocked More Punts
If the special teams unit can continue to frustrate teams on punts, UNLV gains a huge advantage. Last week, the special teams unit practically won the game for them against Wyoming. If a thought of a blocked punt is even in the mind of Air Force’s punter, UNLV has already won the battle.
PREDICTIONS
This game is going to be a shootout. Both teams have strong offenses and weak defenses. This game is going to be a close one, and I believe UNLV will win 38-34 against Air Force.
