Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Light Heavyweight rivals Magomed Ankalaev vs. Alex Pereira will rematch TONIGHT (Sat., Oct. 4, 2025) inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada at UFC 320.
It’s a testament
to Ankalaev’s skill that he took the long, roundabout path to a UFC title and is still just 33 years of age entering his first title defense. Unbeaten since 2018, Ankalaev really could become the first truly dominant 205-pound champion since Jon Jones, but he first has to finish this chapter with “Poatan.” As for the hard-hitting Brazilian, it’s his mission to prove the first fight was an aberration. After establishing himself as the sport’s biggest active star in 2024, Pereira has a chance to regain his momentum and prior status if he can up the pace here.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 Betting Odds
- Magomed Ankalaev victory: -285
- Magomed Ankalaev via TKO/KO/DQ: +215
- Magomed Ankalaev via submission: +1000
- Magomed Ankalaev via decision: +130
- Alex Pereira victory: +230
- Alex Pereira via TKO/KO/DQ: +320
- Alex Pereira via submission: +3500
- Alex Pereira via decision: +1200
- Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
How Ankalaev Wins
Ankalaev is a highly decorated Combat Sambo fighter who actually prefers to strike. Early in his career, Ankalaev was known for his takedowns and mauling ground striking, but it’s been years since that was his go-to strategy. Instead, the Southpaw likes to press his opponents with good combinations and powerful left kicks, always remaining in position to counter when they fire back.
Last time around, Ankalaev did the better work with his hands yet still struggled a bit with the kicks of “Poatan.” That’s understandable given Pereira’s unique kicking prowess, but it’s a clear area where he could improve in the rematch. In this second bout, Ankalaev has to come a bit more prepared to block-and-fire, as Pereira was able to win rounds from unanswered kicks alone.
In addition, Ankalaev was able to find surprisingly little success in the wrestling in the first fight. Part of his problem was that he spent most of his time in the upper body clinch, where Pereira’s strength is a formidable barrier. If Ankalaev focuses more on wrestling below the waist, chaining together finishes, and trying to off-balance the Brazilian, he’s more likely to ground his foe.
How Pereira Wins
Pereira is one of the greatest knockout artists in his division’s history. He hits ungodly hard with every weapon in his arsenal, able to fell his foes with a single left hook or a handful of low kicks. Last time out, however, he was largely stymied by the pressure and tight defense of Ankalaev, so getting his hands going in the rematch will be absolutely essential.
A big part of Pereira’s boxing issues came from the hand fighting, a natural part of orthodox vs. Southpaw fighting. Pereira’s land hand was continually tied up, so he couldn’t find his jab. When he tried to push forward with power punches instead, he started eating hard counters and thus moved away from punching almost entirely.
To avoid a similar result here, Pereira has to do a better job punching off the hand fight. For example, he could look to lightly tap down on Ankalaev’s lead hand then step down the middle with a 1-2. If he can fake and get Ankalaev reaching, he could potentially punish the hand fight with his left hook. Kicking off the hand fight could also be beneficial, even if the end goal is to throw more punches.
Even Pereira can convince Ankalaev to keep his lead hand by his chin more often, he’ll have better success initiating combos and landing his own offense.
Ankalaev vs. Pereira Prediction
I believe both men are capable of better than what they showed in the first match up. The post-fight reports of injuries and 40 percent performances are entirely believable on both sides, as neither man was able to show off the best of their abilities.
Assuming both men open up a bit and put their best foot forward in the rematch, what changes? Likely, both men land more often. Pereira has the touch of death, but Ankalaev seems equally as likely to hurt his opponent. A more aggressive Ankalaev likely hurts Pereira earlier, putting him back in that reactive state. Plus, I wouldn’t rule out a heavy return to wrestling from Ankalaev, which could surprise Pereira after their striking-heavy first fight.
All told, it feels like Pereira must find the knockout to win this fight. Against a defensively sound, durable fighter still in his prime, that’s not impossible, but the odds aren’t great, either.
Prediction: Ankalaev via decision
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