Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, October 18 at 12:00 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPNU
- Location: Yulman Stadium — New Orleans, LA
- Spread: Tulane (-9.5)
- Over/under: 45.5
- All-time series: Tulane leads, 13-10-1
- Last meeting: Army 35, Tulane 14 — December 6, 2024 (American Conference Championship)
- Current streak: Army, 1 (2024)
Setting the scene
Week 8 calls for a rematch of the 2024 American Conference Championship Game. Just a little more than 10 months later, Army (3-3, 2-2 American) and Tulane (5-1, 2-1 American) are ready to collide once
again, although the setting makes the drastic shift from West Point, NY to New Orleans, LA.
The Black Knights handled the Green Wave by three touchdowns to win last year’s conference crown, but 2025 is a brand new season. Army swept through conference competition in year one of American membership, however, year two is off to a rockier start at 2-2 in league play. Given the Black Knights’ early struggles, Tulane enters as the considerable home favorite, looking to collect another American win after winning 24 of 26 regular season conference matchups.
Army Black Knights outlook
Since the American Conference scrapped divisions in 2020, only 2022 UCF qualified for the title game with two conference losses — and that was back in an 11-team league, instead of the modern 14-team iteration. Thus, Army’s chances to repeat are on life support, but the Black Knights can return to the stage by upending contenders and winning key tiebreakers.
Army knocked off Tulane 35-14 last December by racking up 335 rushing yards and only dropping back to pass twice, and that remains the Black Knights’ strategy under Jeff Monken in 2025. They rank last in the FBS in both passing attempts and passing yards per game by a considerable distance yet ground the ball 63.7 times per game — over 11 rushing attempts more than the next closest team. With that strategy, it’s no surprise Army ranks first nationally in time of possession, hogging the ball for 36 minutes per game.
Thus, Army must execute in a shortened game with limited possessions. The Black Knights mastered this strategy in 24-7 and 31-13 wins over UAB and Charlotte the last two weeks, but the defense allowed North Texas and East Carolina to score too quickly in their September conference matchups. Defense has been a considerable drop-off for Army, falling from 4th in points surrender per game in 2024 to 68th in 2025. Army is yielding roughly 42 more yards per game this year, and the Black Knights surrendered 430+ in both of the aforementioned conference losses.
However, their ability to suffocate the run showed in the Kansas State win, and Army retains its top two tacklers from 2024 — linebackers Andon Thomas and Kalib Fortner — a duo which held a high-powered Tulane run game to 115 yards last December. Fortner is making a mark in backfields with a team-high six tackles for loss, but the team still desires more backfield pressure — ranking in the bottom 15 of the FBS in sacks per game.
Offensively, Army remains lethal on the ground although there is still an acclimation period to life without Bryson Daily. The Black Knights flipped through quarterbacks in September in effort to find a new Daily, and now Cale Hellums is gaining momentum as the No. 1 option. Hellums rushed for a season-high 143 yards and two touchdowns to put away Charlotte last week, and he ranks first on the roster in rushing yards (450) and rushing touchdowns (8).
Other premier rushing options on the roster include running back Hayden Reed and the explosive slot back/wide receiver Noah Short. Reed is the most frequented non-quarterback in the run game, taking 69 carries for 322 yards, while Short motions on a routine basis — getting the ball in a variety of ways on handoffs, jet sweeps, pitches, and in the passing game. When Army drops back, Short is often the intended target with 13 of the team’s 32 receptions on the year.
The offense is moving effectively, but limiting turnovers is a priority. In 2024, Army committed nine turnovers across 14 games. This year, the Black Knights have coughed up the ball eight times in six games — essentially the reason behind both of their overtime losses.
Tulane Green Wave outlook
Tulane is back in the familiar place of American Conference contenders, staving off an East Carolina comeback for a crucial conference victory in Thursday night of Week 7. That’s just one of several impressive wins on the Green Wave’s first half résumé, which included victories over 4-2 Duke, 4-2 Northwestern, and 4-3 East Carolina.
For a team striving to make the College Football Playoff, the path is already set. In all likelihood, Tulane is firmly in the 12-team bracket by winning the American Conference. The next task in completing that mission can be achieved Saturday in cathartic fashion, simply by knocking off the team that prevented Tulane from a 2024 American title.
Just like 2024 Army is very different from 2025 Army, the same deal goes for Tulane. The Green Wave are led by a brand new quarterback in Jake Retzlaff, who attacks with more mobility than his predecessors. Retzlaff is 11th nationally among quarterbacks with a Tulane-high 388 rushing yards and tied for sixth at the position with seven rushing touchdowns. But the BYU transfer proved true multidimensionality in his game last Thursday, firing for 347 yards and two touchdowns on a 26-of-36 showing. Thus, Retzlaff can inflict damage on defenses in a variety of ways and Tulane shape shifts its gameplan based on what the defense allows.
Halfway through the regular season, Tulane still hasn’t decided on a feature back — which is very un-Tulane-like considering the Green Wave produced a top 10 rusher in each of the last three seasons. Instead, Javin Gordon, Arnold Barnes III, Zuberi Mobley, and Maurice Turner (who missed the majority of September due to injury) are still splitting carries until one emerges. The Green Wave still await for their first 100-yard outing from a non-Retzlaff player this year, and they should be running the ball quite often Saturday to prevent Army from hoarding time of possession.
The wide receiver room also features a strking balance. There is no overwhelming No. 1 target as Omari Hayes, Bryce Bohanon, and Shazz Preston share similar utilization in the offense. Last week in Retzlaff’s best passing performance of the year, Zycarl Lewis Jr. emerged with a team-high 75 yards — scoring a massive go-ahead fourth quarter touchdown.
The passing game was one strength exhibited in the 26-19 win over ECU. Another was the defense which enjoyed one of its better showings of 2025 by shutting the Pirates out in the first half and only surrendering 180 passing yards on 30 attempts. Ranked 97th against the pass and 80th against the run, Tulane’s defense has been burned a few times this year.
However, the Green Wave are extremely sharp in several areas. One involves generating fourth down stops, denying nine of 12 opposing attempts thus far. Another involves generating turnovers. Tulane boasts 11 takeaways on the season led by nickel corner Javion White’s three interceptions. The Green Wave are very disruptive in flying to the ball in the secondary to make these havoc plays. Jaheim Johnson and E’zaiah Shine share the conference-lead with six pass breakups.
But against Army, stopping the run is of utmost importance. The corners need to set the boundary while defensive ends such as Santana Hopper and Harvey Dyson III (11 tackles for loss) must prepare to make first-level stops and prevent Army from controlling the clock and pounding the rock en route to another victory.
Prediction
What you can expect in this game: (1) an extreme amount of running, (2) quality offensive line play, (3) a lack of possessions and thus a lack of points. The rematch of the 2024 American Conference title game looks quite different from last December, as Army’s offense is averaging 1.1 fewer yards per carry, committing turnovers at a much greater level, and the defense isn’t living up to the impossibly-great standard set by the 2024 champs.
These trends allow Tulane to enter as home favorites, and the Green Wave are great in New Orleans. They’ve produced a slew of quality victories at Yulman Stadium thus far, often starting fast before slowing down to finish — outscoring opponents 68-12 in first halves at home but getting outscored 27-37 in second halves.
Building a working run game through the running backs hasn’t been easy this year, but Jake Retzlaff’s prseence and Tulane’s crafty play-calling should present a path for the Green Wave to escape Army in a low-scoring bout.
Prediction: Tulane 24, Army 21
