Last September, Illinois got the job done in Durham. And it wasn’t that close.
The Illini, at the time knocking on the door of the AP top 10 (remember that?!), knocked off Duke 45-19. Notably, the Blue Devils ended up being the ACC champion (undeservedly), while Illinois finished off a nine-win season in Nashville by topping Tennessee.
Well, here we go again.
Illinois is getting its end of the home-and-home with Duke next Saturday, Sept. 12, at Memorial Stadium.
And our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook
think the Illini will pull off the sweep.
The opening odds released Sunday show Illinois as a 6.5-point favorite over the Blue Devils. The moneyline is +198 for Duke and -245 for Illinois. The over/under was set at 53.5, so FanDuel is essentially expecting something in the neighborhood of a 30-23 score in favor of Bret Bielema’s squad.
I don’t hate it, especially because Duke only put up 17 points to open the season in a 17-3 win over Tulane.
According to SP+, Tulane is the 92nd-best team in the country, with its defense checking in at No. 82. So, there was reason to believe Duke should have been able to put up some more points against a relatively mediocre defense.
That didn’t happen.
Of course, it’s one game. We shouldn’t make sweeping conclusions about a team based on 60 minutes in September. Duke’s defense also deserves some credit for holding Tulane to just three points.
But there’s a pretty significant difference between facing Tulane and walking into Memorial Stadium (where I’m sure they’ll fear the largest video board in the world).
Illinois opened the season against UAB, giving the Illini an opportunity to get some of the early-season rust out of the way before Manny Diaz & Co. come to town.
And unlike last year, this time the Blue Devils know exactly what they’re walking into.
Illinois dominated the matchup in Durham from the jump last season, jumping out to a 28-3 halftime lead before cruising to the 45-19 victory.
Now, Duke gets another crack at the Illini.
The oddsmakers clearly expect a much more competitive game than last year, but they’re still giving Illinois the edge.
A 6.5-point spread feels pretty reasonable to me. If Illinois can replicate anything close to its offensive performance from last season’s matchup, the Illini should have a pretty good chance to cover.
And if Duke’s offense looks anything like it did against Tulane… then you should take the Illini.
