Saturday will be a contest between two teams that couldn’t have had more different Week 8 experiences. Northwestern said goodbye to Martin Field with a 19-0 win over Purdue, the program’s first shutout since 2017. Nebraska, on the other hand, went into Minnesota as a touchdown favorite and instead got drubbed 24-3. Regardless, Nebraska will likely be the toughest matchup NU has faced since Oregon visited the lakefill in week 3. In a road matchup against a team hoping to have a bounce back victory,
these will be the factors that will determine whether the Wildcats leave Memorial Stadium Bowl eligible or not.
Why Northwestern will beat Nebraska
The big boys get home
Dylan Raiola is many things. Yes, he’s a Mahomes impersonator, but he’s also a talented college quarterback. He can make throws out of structure, and he’s the captain of one of the best passing offenses that college football has to offer.
But to NU, the most important thing about Raiola is that he’s the third most sacked quarterback in all of FBS.
Minnesota recorded eight sacks against the cornhuskers, while Michigan racked up seven in its visit to Memorial Stadium earlier this season. Admittedly, those are two teams that both have strong defensive fronts. But Michigan State was able to bring Raiola down five times in its matchup vs. Nebraska. The Spartans have averaged 1.3 sacks a game against all other opponents this season.
It has been no secret that NU’s defensive line has struggled getting to the quarterback all year long, but if there was ever a week for Anto Saka and company to set up shop in the opposing team’s backfield, this would be this one. If the defensive line can disrupt Raiola’s rhythm, the Cornhusker offense will look very pedestrian.
The ground game
Justice Haynes: 149 yards, 8.8 yards per carry, 1 touchdown
Darius Taylor: 148 yards, 6.2 yards per carry, 1 touchdown
Nolan Ray: 62 yards, 5.6 yards per carry, 1 touchdown
Brendan Sorsby: 96 yards, 7.4 yards per carry, 2 touchdowns
Those are the stat lines of some of the running backs and quarterbacks Nebraska has played this year. On the season the Cornhuskers are allowing 156 yards a game on the ground on 4.6 yards per carry.
Anyone who has watched an NU game this season knows how potent the ’Cats’ ground game has been all year. If Northwestern is to win in Lincoln, it will probably be due to another strong game from Komolafe (who Braun said will likely be available) and Himon II.
Wrapped with a bow
Again, Railoa is many things. As of late, he’s been turnover prone.
Three interceptions were thrown against Maryland in a narrow 34-31 win. Both the Michigan and Michigan State games ended with one turnover by the Cornhusker QB. Admittedly there were no picks against Minnesota, but that was largely due to the offensive line not giving him any time to throw to his own players nonetheless the other team’s.
Five turnovers in four games is an unsettling trend for Nebraska, and the strong Northwestern secondary will be looking to capitalize on it.
Why Northwestern won’t beat Nebraska
Raiola resilience
While Raiola has been sacked more than almost any other quarterback in the county, that hasn’t stopped him from putting up elite numbers. Although the offense struggled in Minnesota last week, there have been times where Raiola succeeded even when faced with constant pressure.
The game against Michigan comes to mind. Even while getting sacked seven times, Raiola had 308 yards and three touchdowns through the air and led the offense to a 27 point outing in what would be a three point loss.
There is no guarantee that NU’s front four will be able to get Raiola on the ground, and even if they do there is a chance that it genuinely does not matter.
Lujan can’t regain balance
NU’s passing offense followed a completely different script against the Boilermakers than it did in its visit to Happy Valley. The returns were diminishing.
Lujan opted to go away from the play action and the screen game this week, keeping the pass game and run game separate instead of having them compliment each other. 19 points isn’t horrible, but Stone had his least efficient game since Oregon, and the team couldn’t capitalize against the Big Ten’s weakest defense.
Given the scenario, on the road against a team that was in last week’s AP top 25 poll, I expect Lujan to try and make things as easy for Stone as possible again. However, Nebraska has allowed the fewest passing yards all season. There’s a chance that this offense could struggle through the air no matter what Lujan draws up.
Looking in a mirror
Just the same way that Himon II and Komolafe are primed for big days against a poor Nebraska running game, Emmett Johnson will probably fancy his chances against the ’Cats.
Johnson is ninth in the entire nation in rushing yards. Against Maryland he racked up 176 yards rushing, but his shining performance was his three touchdown day against Michigan State.
Kaytron Allen put up 90 yards on 5.6 yards per carry against this Northwestern defense in recent weeks, and Oregon’s Dierre Hill Jr. had 94 yards on only 5 carries all the way back in week three.
It’s not a huge leap to say Johnson could replicate or surpass those numbers on Saturday, and if he does, it’s hard to imagine NU having enough firepower to respond in a shootout.
Takeaway
Those factors likely decide the outcome of Northwestern’s trip to Lincoln. At this point in the season, both teams have their own identity. Northwestern has been able to grind out games by dominating time of possession and stifling its opponent’s air attack. Nebraska, on the other hand, gives up a lot of points, but counts on its gunslinger quarterback to cover the deficit. To be fair to them, that strategy has worked more often than not.
After laying out all the possibilities, do I have a personal answer as to whether or not Northwestern will or won’t win? Nothing is definitive, and Nebraska is favored for a reason, but where there’s a will, there’s a way as they say.
