135 days ago, the Michigan State Basketball Spartans took to the Breslin Center court to open the 2025-26 season in an exhibition match against the Falcons of Bowling Green State University. MSU won, in a surprisingly close game, by only nine points, 75-66. Back in mid-October, in the preseason polls, Michigan State was predicted to finish sixth in the Big Ten. Flash forward to today, where the Spartans are on the cusp of their final regular season game, and have a chance to clinch the second-place
spot in the B1G regular season, and 2nd seed in the Big Ten Tournament. It wasn’t just the national media who underrated Michigan State, as O was the only TOC writer to predict a runner-up finish in the Big Ten standings in our preseason preview.
It’s safe to say the Spartans have exceeded expectations this season. But there’s one thing stopping the 2025-26 season from being remembered in the same breath as any of the other legendary Tom Izzo-coached seasons at MSU: that school down the road.
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Today, on Saturday March 7th, your Spartans are in possession of a 25-5 overall record, and have survived Big Ten play with a 15-4 record in conference. Not bad for Head Coach Tom Izzo’s 31st season at the helm in East Lansing.
However, it is the michigan wolverines who possess a 28-2 record, sole possession of the Big Ten regular season title, and the all-important road win over Michigan State at the Breslin Center. Despite all the great moments the 2025-26 Spartans have given us fans, there remains the ever-annoying Dusty May with a smirk on his face, leaving a bad taste in the mouths of MSU fans everywhere.
When he isn’t blatantly ignoring well-established traditions, the second-year Head Coach in ann arbor is putting together a squad that reeks of the transfer portal additions (no wonder Coach Izzo doesn’t like the guy). Let’s see what we can learn about our rivals since the last time the two teams squared off on January 30th.
The Rotation
Not much has changed in the michigan starting lineup since we last saw them in the Breslin.
#3, Guard: Elliot Cadeau (JR) 6’1 180 lbs
#4, Guard: Nimari Burnett (Grad-SR) 6’5 195 lbs
#21, Forward: Morez Johnson Jr. (SO) 6’9 250 lbs
#23, Forward: Yaxel Lendeborg (Grad-SR) 6’9 240 lbs
#15, Center: Aday Mara (JR) 7’3 255 lbs
Coach May has stood by the same five starters throughout most of the year, with the 23-year old Yaxel Lendeborg continuing to lead the way with 14.3 points and 7.3 boards per game. He is a true three-level scorer, shooting the three point ball at 32.1%, and a stat that can sometimes fly under the radar with Lendeborg is his ability to draw fouls. He has shot 127 foul shots this season (and made 104, good for 81.9%), two more than MSU’s Carson Cooper, a player who is two inches taller and plays much more of his game down in the post. Yaxel was at his best the last time these two teams met, exploding for 26 points and 12 rebounds. 13, or half of his points came from the charity stripe.
Another standout player from this rivalry’s first 2025-26 iteration was point guard Elliot Cadeau. The North Carolina transfer had 17, on 5-8 shooting from the field. He is putting together an efficient season, averaging 10.1 PPG and 5.6 assists in about 25 minutes per game. Big man Aday Mara also has the ability to take over any game with his elite size, but the Spartans were able to hold him in check to a 4-12 outing in January. Regardless, Mara is a large human being who needs to be accounted for on the glass at all times, and will prove once again a challenge for MSU bigs Carson Cooper and Jaxon Kohler.
Forward Morez Johnson also possesses the ability to have a huge impact on this game, just like he did in the first matchup (more on that later). The 6’9 rim protector has been shooting up NBA Draft boards as of late, especially thanks to his 19 point, 11 rebound double-double against Illinois in late February. Shooting an incredible 65% from the field, one can certainly make the case that Johnson’s performance will be the X-factor for uofm as they trek deeper and deeper into March.
Now, to where u-m has experienced a bit of turnover in terms of minutes of late, let’s take a look at the bench contributors for the wolverines.
#11, Guard: Roddy Gayle (SR) 6’5 210 lbs
#1, Guard: Trey McKenney (FR) 6’4 225 lbs
#42, Forward: Will Tschetter (SR) 6’8 230 lbs
As you’ll notice when comparing this list to the one leading up to the first matchup, there is a notable absence: guard LJ Cason. The 6’2 sophomore blew out his ACL in a recent February 27th matchup versus Illinois, and will be out for the remainer of the season. This is a huge blow for May and Co., as Cason was a key bench contributor averaging 28 minutes a game, no small number. Always providing a spark off the bench and crucial ball-handling assistance for Elliot Cadeau, Cason was shooting the three ball at a 40.2% clip. Losing him will prove to be a major blow for u-m, as the sophomore wasn’t just shooting well from deep; he was averaging 11.8 points per game over his final eight games.
The wolverines have only played a single game since losing LJ Cason, coming this past Thursday against Iowa, in which reserve guards Roddy Gayle and Trey McKenney each played an increased role. McKenney, the true freshman, chipped in five points, and Gayle had six, along with bringing much-needed energy on loose balls which proved to play a pivotal role in u-m’s 71-68 escape from the Hawkeyes. However, this switch-up from a nine man rotation to an eight man will certainly have its impact in future games, whether it be from forcing more minutes onto Cadeau and McKenney at the point or by eliminating michigan’s sharpshooter sixth man, the loss of Cason does mark a scratch in the armor that is Dusty May’s 28-2 record.
Keys to the Game
Start Fast! Even someone just reading over the play-by-play from the last matchup between wolverines and Spartans could muster up this talking point. On January 30th, MSU played just about as bad of a first half as possible, shooting an abysmal 26% from the floor and digging themselves into a 42-26 deficit in the first twenty minutes. While the Crisler Library crowd likely won’t be anything our Spartans haven’t seen before, getting off to a hot start would work wonders in taking the u-m fans out of the game right away. Michigan State does have a tendency to come out of the gates sloppy, as we saw Thursday night against Rutgers and have seen a plethora of times throughout the 2025-26 season. While State has shown the ability to mount a comeback, fighting from behind is not something you want to do against this michigan team. The best way to stay competitive early on? Limit turnovers. State committed 11(!!) in the opening half versus u-m in January, which is simply unacceptable for a premier point guard in Jeremy Fears and the entire lineup.
Fears vs Cadeau- You would expect nothing less from a top-10 regular season finale matchup, but this game will feature some serious star power on both ends, providing some killer positional matchups to keep an eye out for. Starting out with the floor generals, I believe a huge factor to not only starting this game out fast but finishing strong will be whether or not Jeremy is on his A-game off the opening tip. Fears, who has been slightly more of a second-half player this season, was able to take over the first matchup in the final 20 minutes, scoring a whopping 31. However, it was not enough to bring home a Spartan win. Jeremy Fears coming out of the gates hot and setting the pace for his teammates is always a good sign, but especially against the now-thin backcourt of michigan. In all likelihood, Tom Izzo will give Jeremy the greenlight to attack early, in an attempt to get Elliot Cadeau into a bit of foul trouble, and forcing Dusty May to give more minutes to the inexperienced McKinney, or out of position Roddy Gayle at the point.
The defensive end is just as important, as Cadeau is one of those Big Ten guards who can light you up for some serious scoring at any point. Fears and MSU have shown struggles against explosive guards like Bruce Thornton of OSU, Lamar Wilkerson of Indiana, and most recently Tariq Francis of Rutgers. Avoiding this and turning the tap off on Cadeau, or sitting down Cadeau with foul trouble early, would be a huge hit to the wolverines throughout this game.
The Morez Johnson Factor– Last time around versus Michigan State, M. Johnson was arguably the most important player on the Breslin Center floor. His defensive physicality made it difficult for Cooper and Kohler to gain any traction inside, and he proved a serious threat on the offensive end, finishing with a loud 12 points. Coming off of a 16 and 8 performance against Iowa, Johnson will once again play a major role. Just look at his impact in the first MSU-uofm matchup: after Johnson picked up his third foul early in the second half and had to sit, Michigan State quickly erased a 16-point deficit and actually took a 59–57 lead. However, the moment Morez checked back in, the tap was cut off on Sparty’s run. The wolverines took control once again, and Johnson’s poster dunk essentially broke State’s momentum and sealed the 83–71 umich win.
So, how will Izzo and company attempt to quiet Johnson’s evening? Getting the big man into foul trouble would certainly help, but if Jaxon Kohler can knock down some big triples, and force him to defend the three point line, the driving lanes will once again open for Jeremy Fears off the pick-and-roll. Look for some early offensive action that sets Kohler up with top of the key, or wing threes, luring Johnson out to the perimeter.
Rebound. Period. No ifs, ands, or buts about this one. In the first game, State and umich each grabbed 36 boards, good for a draw on paper, but likely a win in Dusty May’s mind. Michigan State has established themselves, for decades now, as a team that starts everything with rebounding. Simple as it is, limiting guys like Lendenborg and Mara’s second chances, and generating some putbacks of our own will go a long way in tipping this game in the favor of the green and white. The good news for Spartan fans? The ever-aggressive Cam Ward seems to have made a full recovery from his minor wrist injury, and has been playing like a man posessed on the boards. Ward, Kohler, Cooper, and Carr will need to devote a ton of energy to rebounding if MSU wants to walk away victorious.
Also keep an eye out for wing Jordan Scott on the glass, a player who is quietly becoming the glue that holds this team together with his hustle plays, and certainly has the potential to out rebound the wolverine guards. The last time this matchup was played, the smaller Divine Ugochukwu was still in the starting lineup for MSU. While losing Divine to injury certainly hurts the backcourt when it comes to ball-handling, Scott brings a very different skillset and better size, something that could be pivotal in tipping the scales in favor of the Spartans.
Control the Emotions– This rivalry means something. As long as Tom Izzo is on the sidelines for Michigan State, it will be one of the most important games of the year. I’m not completely convinced that the fairweather u-m basketball fans feel the same way. Especially in a game where michigan has much less to play for, having already beaten the Spartans and taken the Big Ten regular season, I give the rivalry edge to the green and white. However, this emotional advantage can quickly turn into a disadvantage, as we have unfortunately seen a few times this year with point guard Jeremy Fears get carried away in the heat of the moment. Can MSU balance composure and emotion, use the previous loss as fuel, and rally to defeat their arch-nemesis?
In a game where Dusty May will undoubtedly be working the refs to have an extra special lookout for each and every move Jeremy Fears makes, can the Spartan floor general rise to the added challenge, and play not only a clean, but dominant game? Will senior day, and a home crowd for the transfer-laden wolverines play a factor in the emotions of the day?
All these questions and more will be answered at 4:30pm on CBS. Put your brackets aside for now folks, this is March in the state of Michigan. The Spartans have some unfinished business to attend to before tournament time. Leave your thoughts on the game, any points I missed, and score predictions in the comments, and GO GREEN!
