The Los Angeles Rams drafted quarterback Ty Simpson with the 13th overall pick this year and that was probably higher than any other team would have taken the inexperienced Alabama signal-caller, but the reason Les Snead did it was: Opportunity. The Rams didn’t expect to have a high first-round pick in 2027 — they would later trade it for Myles Garrett anyway — and Simpson was the best available of a weak bunch.
Some argued that even the sixth or seventh-best quarterback in 2027 would be a better
prospect than Simpson. A “historic” class, they said. Arch you sure about that? Because Manning, I’ve got some news for you …
For most of 2023 to 2025, the media and many fans were practically desperate to proclaim that Arch Manning would become the next great NFL quarterback, anointing him as a future number one overall pick even before he enrolled at Texas as the top prospect in the country. Manning’s star was so bright that it also shone a light on many other quarterbacks expected to be available in the 2027 class, some of whom would be first-time eligible and others who returned to college for more NIL money.
Dante Moore, C.J. Carr, Drew Mestemaker, LaNorris Sellers, Trinidad Chambliss, Darian Mensah, Julian Sayin, and Jayden Maiava to name eight.
ESPN’s Jordan Reid recently posted a big board in which he had zero quarterbacks in the top-7, until Mestemaker lands at eight, and then there isn’t another QB until Chambliss at 15. There are just three QBs in the top-20 and Manning is now being projected to go back to school for a fifth season — perhaps not at Texas.
2027 Mock Drafts were eager to put five or six quarterbacks in the top-10 — to a sickening degree — and to argue that the entire landscape of the league could be altered by the “Manning Class”. At worst, the 2027 draft should resemble classes in 2018, 2020, 2021, 2023, and 2024, when quarterbacks were heavily concentrated in the top-5 or top-12 picks.
I mean, right there are five recent classes that had at least three quarterbacks get drafted immediately, and 2027 was being cited as better than ALL of them. But two months into the college season, the Manning Class looks more like a Clowning Class.
By getting to spend 2026 with Ty Simpson, giving him an extra year of development and NFL coaching, did the Rams actually get a better quarterback prospect than anyone they could have had in 2027?
What went wrong with Arch and company?
If you are like me and you have always said that Arch Manning is the most overrated prospect of the century, please leave a comment below so I know I’m not alone on this hill. I know I wasn’t, but it was hard to get a word in like “But….why?” when you’ve got practically every draft analyst in the industry making excuses for Manning and telling us we didn’t “know ball” because not all of us were ready to call him a future first-round pick.
He has never done anything on a football field that suggests he’s a first-round pick, let alone first overall. Yet you had everyone from Todd McShay to Mel Kiper to Field Yates arguing the opposite. Maybe they’d bring up ONE play or ONE trait, but at the end of the day if his name was “Arch Munning” we wouldn’t even know about him.
(Except maybe to giggle that there’s a QB named “Munning”.)
This rant is not about Arch Manning, it’s about the media/draft ecosystem that allows analysts to spread misinformation about a prospect for clicks, views, or simply out of peer pressure. The Internet is not a welcoming place for dissenting views, let’s be honest.
Here’s a very brief Manning timeline:
- He dominated high schoolers in 2A division class with no other real Division I prospects
- Even then, Manning’s team would lose badly in the playoffs every year (an elite QB should be enough under those circumstances)
- He sat as a true freshman—which is fine
- He sat as a sophomore too—which is not fine, especially when the starter is Quinn Ewers
- In his third year with Steve Sarkisian, he starts his career throwing five picks in five games
- Including picks against UTEP and San Jose State
Manning got praised for finishing strong in 2025, but even at the end of the year he averaged under 7 yards per attempt and he was supposed to be surrounded by one of the best teams in the country.
Although Arch Manning may have gotten drafted over Fernando Mendoza this year — maybe — did he go back to school for more seasoning or did he go back because he heard from the NFL that he wouldn’t go as high as everyone expected? Because to the Mannings, it would be embarrassing if Arch had all this hype and wasn’t drafted top-5, top-10, or even ahead of Ty Simpson.
Ty Simpson was a better player than Arch Manning in 2025, after all. Better by a lot.
Having now lost back-to-back games against unranked opponents, Texas is considering benching Manning for a true freshman. According to Tom Pelissero, he texted someone familiar with Manning and was told that it’s more likely that Manning is at Ole Miss next season than he is in the NFL Draft.
To some people these developments are shocking.
To some of us, it was apparent as soon as Manning spent a second year behind Ewers that something was wrong with this picture.
Manning isn’t the only Faller
Daniel Jeremiah and many others claimed that actually Dante Moore was the elite future MVP candidate in the 2027 QB Class. But Moore suffered a serious head injury against USC and will miss his third straight game.
Moore is now just 37th on Reid’s big board.
Some see C.J. Carr as the best prospect in the draft. Despite an impressive TD/INT ratio of 16:1, Carr is seen as merely having average traits and being a borderline first-round pick, not a lock. Tested against the BYU defense last week, Carr was held to just 261 yards and no touchdowns on 49 passes as Notre Dame lost for the first time.
It seems like every year someone is saying that LaNorris Sellers is about to prove he’s the next Lamar Jackson. But he’s a career 63% passer, throws too many picks, and hasn’t come anywhere close to Lamar’s rushing stats.
Julian Sayin was supposed to be the next great Ohio State quarterback who would go into the draft as a top pick. But unimpressive physical traits never matched his Buckeyes-juiced stats and now he’s out indefinitely with an arm injury.
Instead, many mock drafters have turned to Oklahoma State’s Drew Mestemaker as the last hope of the 2027 draft.
But not even Mestemaker is getting projected as the number one pick. That’s almost always Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith now. Reid cites Mestemaker’s quick ascension as an inexperienced starter who has already become one of the best passers in the country:
Mestemaker is my top quarterback prospect despite this being only his second season as a starter in high school and college. He has an unconventional style, holding the ball at his waistline before ripping a fiery, three-quarters release. Mestemaker has the confidence to test the tightest of windows from various platforms, but that can get the best of him and lead to turnovers. Plus, he can be oblivious to underneath defenders. Mestemaker is bit of a streaky passer, though his hot streaks feature plenty of “wow” moments. And he is capable of being a running threat.
But Mestemaker already has six picks in six games.
Next up is Chambliss and Mensah. Neither of them would seem to be anything close to a top-three pick. They might not sniff the top-10.
So with the 2026 class only featuring two first-round quarterbacks — Mendoza at 1 and Simpson at 13 — could it actually end up stronger than 2027?
You’ll still find plenty of mock drafts that have Mestemaker, Mensah, and Carr in the top-10. Maybe it will shake out that way. Maybe five quarterbacks will go in the first-round after all, if not more. (If not Moore.)
But that narrative sure has shifted dramatically since the offseason:
“The 2027 QB class is historically great”
to
“The 2027 QB class … Uhh… it could still be … well … you don’t know! You can’t predict the future!”
Yeah. Apparently nobody can.
