Of all the narratives and storylines surrounding this year’s Wild Card matchup between the Red Sox and Yankees, there’s two numbers I just can’t escape:
- .199
- .579
That’s the batting average and OPS of Red Sox hitters in their 13 games against the Yankees this season. Roman Anthony leads all Boston batters on this postseason roster with a .286 average and an .804 OPS against the Yankees this season, and he’s played in just two of those 13 games, so I’m not even sure he counts.
Even when the Red Sox swept the Yankees
in that four games series back in June at Fenway, it was entirely driven by pitching. Over the course of that series, the Yankees were held to three runs, one run, one run, and then almost got no-hit by Sonny Gray, who took the bid into the eighth inning of the fourth game.
This is all my way of saying I’m extremely concerned about the Red Sox’ ability to score runs in this series. And I hate that, because there are few things more demoralizing in baseball than a quick postseason exit where your bats do nothing. That’s of course not only how the Sox’ season ended last year when they got shut out by Cam Schlittler in Game 3 of the Wild Card series, but it’s also what ultimately did them in during their previous trip to the postseason ended in 2021. (They scored just one run on three hits in Game 5 of that ALCS, and zero runs on two hits in that decisive Game 6 of that LCS as their Cinderella carriage turned back into a pumpkin.)
Even the individual storylines in the lumber department are trending against Boston as the series nears. One of the reasons the Red Sox are so bad against Yankee pitching is because they can’t hit velocity. Well, one of the few guys who’ve done pretty well against velocity this year is Mickey Gasper, who is now out of the series with a biceps injury.
Who stands to gain the most at-bats because of that development? Jarren Duran, who in his career at Yankee Stadium (including the postseason) is batting .162 with a .437 OPS and ZERO home runs in 129 plate appearances. Stop and think about that for a moment. He’s a lefty batting at Yankee Stadium, and he’s never hit one out there? You’d think one ball would leave the yard by accident given the dimensions and the sample size. This isn’t just 2026 Jarren Duran we’re talking about, it’s encompassing his good seasons as well.
Then there’s also the fact the Red Sox haven’t been able to hit any pitching of late. Despite scoring six or more runs 49 times this season, the Red Sox have done it exactly zero times in their last 21 games. Even the April Red Sox managed to put six on the board eight times this year.
So, no matter how you slice this, the Red Sox are a banged up lineup who’ve struggled to hit velocity all year long, are coming in ice cold, and have a history of laying down without much of a fight in do or die games. To say my confidence is low would be an understatement, and unless Red Sox pitching throws a pair of shutouts, somebody in the lineup is going to have to break through to get this team out of New York alive.
