With just four weeks left in the regular season, College Football Playoff (CFP) speculation is in full flight. If it started today, three Big Ten teams would be in the field. However, there are things yet to be settled on the field.
With all the variance about to come, how realistic is it the Big Ten could get a fourth team into the CFP?
The Big Ten currently houses the two best teams in the country, as Ohio State and Indiana are undefeated. The odds of either team losing three games down the stretch
are infinitesimally small, so let’s treat them as locks for now. Sadly, even if Michigan beats Ryan Day for a fifth straight time, the Buckeyes would still be in.
Beyond the Buckeyes and Hoosiers, Oregon sits in a great spot, currently slotting in at No. 9 in the inaugural CFP rankings. However, this is where things get weird — the Ducks are 7-1 and could likely survive another loss and still make the playoff. However, their remaining games feature No. 20 Iowa, Minnesota, No. 19 USC and No. 23 Washington. If they were to lose twice, they would likely be out.
On the outside looking in are four programs — USC, Iowa, Michigan and Washington. It’s safe to say all four must win out to even be considered. Let’s dive into each one individually.
USC sits at No. 19 in the rankings. Its biggest (and really only notable) wins are against Michigan and Nebraska. The Trojans have a respectable loss at Notre Dame, but their other loss came at the hands of Illinois, which is looking less and less excusable as time goes by. They round out the season with Northwestern, No. 20 Iowa, at No. 9 Oregon and vs UCLA. A 10-2 record with wins over Oregon, Iowa and Michigan would likely be enough to make the field. The Iowa game being in Los Angeles is helpful, but traveling to Autzen is treacherous, unless you’re Indiana apparently.
Iowa (6-2) has quietly crept into contention. The Hawkeyes don’t have any quality wins, as Penn State is their only win of note. Their losses came at Iowa State and at home against Indiana. They will look to add noteworthy wins vs No. 9 Oregon, at No. 19 USC, vs Michigan State and at Nebraska. Everything is on the table for them, but I have a hard time seeing them running the table.
Michigan (7-2) has a slightly better resume than Iowa with a win over Washington, which is better than anything Iowa can say. However, the Wolverines’ remaining schedule is against Northwestern (at Wrigley Field), at Maryland and vs No. 1 Ohio State. When your path to the CFP involves needing to beat the No. 1 team in the country, it’s not exactly the best spot to be in. However, every other variable is favorable.
Washington is also very much in the mix. The Huskies sit at 6-2 with wins over Illinois and Washington State, while their losses were vs Ohio State and at Michigan. Nothing to hang your head about. They have favorable matchups at Wisconsin, vs Purdue, and at UCLA before a season finale with rival Oregon at home. Just like Michigan, Washington is set up with a favorable path to 9-2 before needing a win over its rival in the finale.
Essentially what this boils down to in my head is the following five games:
- 11/8: Oregon at Iowa
- 11/15: Iowa at USC
- 11/22: USC at Oregon
- 11/29: Oregon at Washington
- 11/29: Ohio State at Michigan
Oregon can afford one loss, but the other four must fight to be undefeated in these games. How will they shake out? Who knows. My gut tells me that four Big Ten teams will make the CFP, but I have no idea if that will be because Sherrone Moore beats Ryan Day again, Washington runs the table and topples Oregon, or Iowa crumbles and paves the way for USC.
What do you think? Will four Big Ten teams make the CFP? If so, which four? If not, why? Will Iowa, USC, Michigan and Washington all pick up another loss before the end of the season?
Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.
