Slated to meet in the Commissioner’s Cup championship on Tuesday, June 30, the New York Liberty and Las Vegas Aces will give us a preview this Tuesday, with the Aces hosting the Liberty (10 p.m. ET, USA Network).
As evidenced by advancing to the Cup final, both teams are contenders for the WNBA title, although it’s difficult to invest too much stock in either’s championship chances. Despite both teams sitting in the top-four of the standings with strong records, questions persist about their championship quality.
Quite possibly, the match up with a familiar foe will bring out the best versions of each other, setting the stage not only for an epic Cup clash next week but also a showdown deep in the playoffs.
What do we need to see from the Liberty and Aces to make that believable? Here’s my take. Let’s us your perspective of two of the W’s presumed titans in the comments.
Can the New York Liberty find the right lineup combinations?
Less than a one week ago, Zack Ward was trumpeting the Liberty, analyzing how New York appeared well situated to fulfill the organization’s “championship or bust” mandate.
Since then, the Liberty have followed up a title-inspiring eight-game winning streak with a two-game slide. And with those losses, the questions that percolated during the Liberty’s uneven start to the season have re-emerged.
As Zack highlighted, this team’s got talent, with few, if any, other teams in the league able to match the top-eight players in their rotation: Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones, Sabrina Ionescu, Satou Sabally, Leonie Fiebich, Betnijah Laney-Hamilon, Marine Johannès adn Pauline Asiter. Add in Rebekah Gardner, Rebecca Allen and Han Xu as additional, viable rotational pieces.
However, because of injuries and other unavailabilities, New York’s had few opportunities to compete with a complete roster.
Yet, have the limited Liberty actually looked better that the closer-to-whole Liberty?
Less complicated lineup choices, seemingly, streamlines things for head coach Chris DeMarco. Having more of their talent available leads to tougher decisions that require pushing the right rotational buttons, and possibly being willing to make uncomfortable decisions.
Most simply, the Liberty’s situation is sticky because of Sabrina Ionescu. Limited to five games due to injuries, Sab has not been good to start the season. A back injury and foot injury makes her subpar play explainable. But, it doesn’t mean it’s not a problem, especially if she doesn’t soon find a rhythm.
Ionescu is shooting terribly, and not contributing much else. Always a weak spot on defense, her rebounds and assists are down, and she’s not getting to the foul line. Again, the return from injuries are at least partly responsible for her underperformance.
What concerns me is that Ionescu, reputed as a 3-point shooter, hasn’t shot well from deep since her out-of-this-world 2023 season, which increasingly is looking like an outlier. Since then, she’s shot 33.3 percent and 29.9 percent from 3 in 2024 and 2025, respectively. So far, she’s shooting 27.8 percent in 2026. And unlike Stewie, who’s also lost her triple, Sab, as noted above, isn’t adding value in other areas of the game.
How patient should the Liberty be with Ionescu, especially when Asiter is right there?
The rookie point guard has had the Liberty offense humming, thanks to her efficient scoring from both 2-point range and 3-point range. In the Liberty’s latest losses, which saw Ionescu return to the starting group, Astier’s minutes were reduced. In the loss the Washington Mystics, she played just 10 minutes and scored a season-low two points. Against the Los Angeles Sparks, she was back up to 21 minutes, pouring in 17 points and dishing five assists.
DeMarco recently suggested that he’ll play Ionescu and Astier together, but that doesn’t project to be viable defensively.
Again, it’s complicated, and it’s not all on Ionescu.
However, Sab playing like the player with her reputation and resume would makes things simpler, while inspiring more confidence in the Liberty’s championship chances. Will we see the old Sabrina in Vegas on Tuesday?
Can the Las Vegas Aces establish defensive consistency?
The Aces’ issue is one common to defending champions in basketball: consistent motivation.
After surviving in the sport’s most intense setting to ascend to the top, conjuring the requisite preparedness in run-of-the-mill regular-season games can be difficult, especially on the defensive end.
Fortunately, the Aces seem aware of their tendency to let things slip on defense, as head coach Becky Hammon and A’ja Wilson discussed after their blowout loss to the Dallas Wings over one week ago.
Awareness of a problem, however, doesn’t guarantee a solution.
Yet, the Aces, at least for one game, showed that, when pressed, they can find of higher level of defensive attention and execution.
They flashed stretches of clinical defense against the Golden State Valkyries on Sunday. Even if the Valkyries are not the most potent offense, the Aces extinguished any hope Golden State might have had. Vegas held their visitors to a 13-point second quarter, turning a close game into a comfortable win.
It would be anxiety easing if the Aces could establish a higher defensive floor, but as long as they truly have the ability to raise their level when required, then their back-to-back ambitions get a huge boost.
Vegas is not immune from flaws in other areas: They’re too dependent on their Big 3, Jewell Loyd’s lack of production is concerning, Chennedy Carter’s track record makes trusting her a risk and they’re relying on some questionable rotational player to play real minutes.
But with a Wilson who only revs up as the season progresses, complemented by proven winners and big-game risers in Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray, it’s hard to get too worried about the Aces.
And if the defensive dial is turned up on Tuesday night in Michelob ULTRA Arena, shutting down the fifth-ranked Liberty offense and sending New York on their second three-game skid of the season, any sense of worry about the Aces’ upside will further be alleviated.
