Let’s take a second and flash back into the early portion of the season.
Virginia football is 1-1, coming off of a dominant win over a bad Coastal Carolina team and a gut-wrenching loss to a so-so NC State
squad. We saw some encouraging things with the offense and some of the same old from the defense. The idea is to hopefully head into the toughest stretch of the schedule at 3-1. Then, with upcoming meeting with top-10 Florida State and a road clash with a good Louisville program, maybe the ‘Hoos could steal one of those and go into the bye with a best-case 4-2 record, putting them in great position to make a bowl game.
Fast forward to today and the Cavaliers are 5-1, and many of us cannot help but think about being one better Chandler Morris decision away from an undefeated record. The sights are set on a double digit win total and potentially a trip to the ACC Championship with a shot to qualify at the 12-team College Football Playoff. The entire perspective has changed.
Yes, it is good to dream big, but this is not necessarily even a “dream.” UVA should be the more talented team in most of the games remaining on its schedule. While work is still cut out for them, Tony Elliott’s group has proven the ability to show up each week and fight for a full 60-plus minutes, and that is what should provide confidence for Wahoo fans.
We did deeper into the path ahead:
Week 8: Washington State
In their second and final season in this version of the Pac-12 (“Pac-2” if you will), the Cougars sit at 3-3 with bowl eligibility on their minds. It has been difficult to get a read on Wazzu this year. There have been times where they have played lock down defense; we just witnessed them go into Oxford, contain a Lane Kiffin offense for four quarters, and nearly steal a game versus No. 4 Ole Miss. They also gave up 59 points in back-to-back weeks versus Washington and North Texas, respectively.
It will all depend on which version of the Cougars that Virginia gets. If Washington State gives the Cavaliers their best shot, it could be somewhat of a rock fight. There’s also a good possibility this one follows a similar trajectory to the Stanford contest, where UVA’s clearly superior offense shines through. More analysis to come in our preview later this week.
Week 9: at North Carolina
In a wild turn of events, the Tar Heels have been an absolute disaster under Bill Belichick. Even off-the-field drama aside, UNC is 2-3, with measly wins over Charlotte and Richmond, and blowout losses in the rest of the games. Their season-high in points against Power-4 opponents is 14, which came in a 34-point whomping by TCU in the opener. UVA should have no problems controlling this game for four quarters and coming out on top comfortably.
Week 10: at Cal
This is one of two road contests that could be tricky for the ‘Hoos. The Golden Bears are 4-2, with two power conference wins, albeit losses to San Diego State and Duke, both by three-plus touchdown margins.
The national attention surrounding Cal this year has been around their freshman quarterback Jaron-Kaewe Sagapolutele (commonly referred to as “JKS” for short) and his million dollar arm. For that reason, this team could be considered not necessarily “good,” but “frisky.” Throw in a west coast, potentially late night start time as well and this one will be far from a gimme.
Week 11: Wake Forest
The best way to describe Wake right now in Year 1 under Jake Dickert is “respectfully bad.” They’ve improved a bit since their Week 1 10-9 slug fest against Kennesaw State, coming off of back-to-back road wins over Virginia Tech and Oregon State. The problem is their lack of ability to move the ball consistently on offense. The Deacs average 5.3 punts per game, good for the 15th-most among FBS schools. If Virginia is truly a top-25 team, they should not have much of a problem taking care of Wake Forest at home.
Week 12: at Duke
On paper, this is the most difficult remaining contest on Virginia’s schedule. In a similar sense to the Louisville game, it will be on the road against competitive team, and one where the Wahoos project as underdogs by most predictive analytics.
Duke sits in a three-way tie with UVA and Georgia Tech tied atop the ACC with a 3-0 conference record, giving this potential to have major championship game implications. Blue Devils quarterback Darian Mensah, is having a great season, averaging over 300 passing yards per game, with a 15-to-2 TD/INT ratio. Virginia has won eight of the last nine against Duke, but this program has also come a long way.
Week 14: Virginia Tech
There’s no need to beat the dead horse here — we all know about the lopsided history of this rivalry. That said, the fact of the matter is that this Virginia team has no business losing to this Virginia Tech team.
I know this sentiment sounds awfully familiar, but pretty much every time the Hokies were having a “down year,” UVA had clear issues of their own. This is not to act as if losing 19-of-20 coin flips isn’t a statistical anomaly; it is to simply point out that the gap has never been this large in favor of the Wahoos.
Virginia Tech is 2-5 with a singular two-point FBS win, and things show no signs of improving under an interim head coach. The ‘Hoos have to simply get it done, regardless of how.
Aside from the discrepancy in talent and program stability, it is important to note that there are a couple of things working in Virginia’s favor. For starters, we all know about post-bye week Elliott, and this second bye is perfectly placed in that regard.
Perhaps more importantly, UVA’s transfer-heavy roster, consisting of players with various football backgrounds around the country, is not fully familiar with the lore of the Commonwealth Clash. They are simply a collection good football players that want to go out there and compete for each other. Perhaps, that can work in the Wahoos’ favor by merely reducing that mental stigma and self-fulfilling prophecy, so to speak.
At the end of the day, all of this is meaningless when the players take the field. We have tried to analyze this rivalry for countless years. Some Virginia coaches have tried the “just another football game” approach, while others have fully emphasized the importance of this game 365 days of the year. The verdict is simple … Just. Win.
