As the San Francisco 49ers enjoy their bye week and evaluate their season through seven weeks, the front office has been busy making calls around the NFL. DeForest Buckner is back, and an educated guess would be that the organization isn’t done making moves. With a 6-1 record, even after a frustrating loss to Atlanta, the 49ers couldn’t ask for a better start, especially with wins over tough defenses like Denver and Seattle.
How have the 49ers done it? Explosive play rates on both sides of the ball.
In this case, an explosive play is a run over ten-plus yards and a pass over 20-plus yards.
The 49ers offense is top five in explosive play rate at 9.5%. The top four offenses in explosive play rates are Buffalo, Miami (what the hell?), Kansas City, and Baltimore. A closer look shows the 49ers’ rushing attack at number four with 14.1% and a passing attack at 5.6%, which is good for 11th in the league. With Mike Evans returning and others, that number should be trending upwards.
What about defensively? The 49ers defense is first in explosive play rate allowed at 3.2%. With the best rushing defense number of 2.9% and the fifth-best passing defense at 3.5%, the 49ers defense will see a decrease in those numbers with Buckner and Nick Bosa playing next week and for the rest of the season, hopefully.
Last week, the 49ers defense struggled to generate pass rush, but they weren’t hit over the top against Atlanta. Unfortunately, the deep Cover 3 zones run by Raheem Morris, paired with the struggling pass rush, allowed Michael Penix and the Falcons offense to convert underneath methodically. The 49ers’ run defense did a great job bottling up one of the most explosive backs in the NFL, Bijan Robinson.
The NFL as a whole has converted to a two-man safety shell look, which is designed to limit explosive plays and keep everything in front of second- and third-level defenders. If the 49ers continue at this pace, they will be just fine. However, it is fair to expect an increase in explosives on offense and a decrease on defense.
That is how the 49ers have a 6-1 record.
