The Miami Dolphins show signs of life. They hung with the Kansas City Chiefs for most of the game and could have been in contention for a win without penalties, mistakes, and other issues young teams need to clean up. This week, the Dolphins face the 3-0 Vikings, making Miami the 2nd team in NFL history and the 1st since 1986 to have their first 4 opponents go undefeated (hat tip to Urthling). Talk about a brutal schedule. Maybe we could have foreseen the Chiefs and Niners, but the Raiders and Vikings are
a surprising 3-0. Anyway, this game is not without its own glimmers of hope.
Reasons for hope
Miami’s offense is showing some potential
The Chiefs’ defense generally doesn’t get much media attention because all the focus is on quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the offense. But their defense is top 5 or top 10 in total yards allowed (4th), passing yards allowed (6th), rushing yards allowed (10th), and in scoring defense (3rd). Miami was expected to struggle offensively, despite being at home. It was supposed to be even worse when they lost Achane to injury. However, the Dolphins managed 329 yards of offense, including some explosive plays, and for the first time this season, they didn’t have a single 3-and-out… unless you wanna count the 3-play drive to end the game when it didn’t matter. They moved the ball without Douglas and Achane for all or most of the game. Now, it wasn’t all sunshine and rainbows. The Dolphins had 2 drives that ended in a turnover on downs. They also fumbled in scoring territory where at least a field goal was likely. The offense committed several penalties that set them back, and this team isn’t capable of consistently overcoming that. But they made progress and should keep developing as the season moves forward.
Minnesota’s offense is bad
Despite everything I just wrote, the Dolphins’ offense is still bad. At least in terms of scoring. They are averaging 12 PPG and haven’t gotten over 13 points in any game. But in terms of yardage, they aren’t the worst. Their opponent this week IS the worst offense in this regard. The Vikings are dead last in total yards at 715, passing yards at 411, and are just above the Dolphins in rushing yards at 304 (tied for 16th; Miami is 20th at 295). The Vikings score more than the Dolphins, averaging 23.7 PPG. But they have faced the Bears (7th in scoring defense), Bucs (23rd in scoring defense), and the Packers (30th in scoring defense). The Dolphins have faced the Chiefs (3rd), 49ers (5th), and Raiders (8th). The Dolphins have faced the 6th, 10th, and 14th best passing defenses. The Vikings have faced the 11th-, 12th-, and 13th-best passing defenses. The Dolphins have faced the 10th, 15th, and 20th best run defenses. The Vikings have faced the 2nd, 21st, and 28th best run defenses. I could make other comparisons, like opponents’ pressure percentages and so on, but I think you can smell what The Earl is cooking here. As bad as the Dolphins offense has been, the Vikings have been similarly bad. If there was ever a game for a struggling secondary to have a chance…
Miami’s defense is also showing some potential
So far, the Dolphins have faced some tough offenses. They got their feet wet against the Raiders and Ashton Jeanty. They faced the juggernaut 49ers and their arsenal of weapons, then came home to face off against Mahomes and the league’s leading rusher. The Dolphins have faced the 2nd- and 3rd-ranked teams in scoring offenses this season. The Niners are averaging 32.7 PPG while the two AFCW teams are tied at 29.3. That is a LOT of scoring. Yet in Week 3, they held the Chiefs to 17 points until a late drive pushed them to 24. The Chiefs and Niners are tied for 6th in passing yards. I discussed the issues with the total number of incompletions Miami allowed, but they have faced tough opponents.
In the last two games, the Dolphins have allowed less than 100 yards rushing, including just 88 total yards to the Chiefs, who have the league’s top rusher. They limited him to 70 yards on 18 carries – 3.9 YPC – including a 22-yard run. Meaning they held him to 48 yards on the other 17 carries – 2.8 YPC. That’s solid work against a guy who went over 100 yards in the previous 2 games. The Chiefs said they wanted to lighten his workload, but the other RB went 6 for 17. The passing defense still needs work, but instead of Purdy or Mahomes, they get the Murray/Wentz combo that is averaging 137 passing yards per game. Something will have to give here.
The rookies are also stepping up. Miami also saw rookie CB Chris Johnson go untargeted by Mahomes all game. Rookie LB Jacob Rodriguez is tied for 7th in the league in combined tackles at 28 and has 3 TFLs, which is tied for 17th with several players. That is solid considering he doesn’t get sacks added to that total. He also generated a turnover this week with the INT and is now the leading favorite to win defensive rookie of the year. The Dolphins still haven’t recorded a sack but did manage to generate 8 pressures in this game (per PFR). Miami’s 3 previous opponents have lower-end pressure percentages, but now face Murray, who is pressured about as much as we have seen Willis get pressured. Could this be the game for the defense to get things right, build some confidence, and start to turn this ship around?
Reasons for Concern
Vikings still have weapons
As fun as it is to discuss the Vikings’ potential offensive ineptitude, they still have a dynamic WR duo in Justin Jefferson (who may not play) and Jordan Addison, plus a good receiving TE in TJ Hockenson. They have Aaron Jones at RB, who is currently 12th in the league with 203 yards. Despite the emerging potential from the pass defense, they have still not forced more than 6 incompletions in the last 2 games. Part of that is a lack of pressure, and part of that is softer coverage. If either or both of those issues show up, the Vikings have more than enough talent on offense to make the Dolphins pay.
The Vikings have also faced circumstances that could explain a lack of offensive production. They scored 39 points at home in week 1 but lost their starting QB in the 1st quarter. That generally puts a damper on the offense, even if the backup is good. That backup then had to travel to face a good Chicago team in week 2, the one top-ten scoring defense they have faced. Then they had to travel to Tampa Bay to face the 6th-ranked defense in yards allowed. One home game with injury issues and 2 road games. Now the Vikings have their starter back and will be playing at home against a defense that allows 80.3% of opponents’ passes to be completed and allows 28.7 PPG. Maybe the Vikings offense is the one that can help the Dolphins defense turn their ship around. Or maybe the Dolphins defense is the one for the Vikings offense to turn their ship around.
On the road again
The Dolphins are singing like Willie because they travel to face an opponent for the 3rd time in 4 games. Road games in the NFL are tough for anyone and even more so for a struggling team. The Vikings are more than a TD favorite, and ESPN’s matchup predictor gives Minnesota an 83.1% chance to win. For an offense that has struggled with pre-snap issues, they now have to go play in a raucous environment where noise will be a factor. Miami committed 8 penalties in week 1 and 7 penalties in week 2. In each game, 6 of those penalties were offensive. This issue can rear its ugly head again this week, and this offense cannot afford to get behind the sticks and in unfavorable down-and-distance situations because…
Vikings defense and the Brian Flores factor
I saved the worst for last because this has the potential to unravel any of the hope I mentioned. We’ll start with Flores. Everyone is aware of the history between Vikings DC Brian Flores and the Dolphins organization. Most of the particulars involved are no longer with Miami – only 2 players from the Flores era are still on the roster: Austin Jackson and Zach Sieler. That doesn’t mean Flores does not still hold animosity to the organization that derailed his head coaching career. Now he gets his first chance to call a game against THAT team AND that team is struggling mightily amidst a rebuild. You think he doesn’t wanna stick it to the Dolphins in what should be an easy middle finger game for him? He has had this game circled for as long as possible. Why will this be an easy middle finger game?
For as bad as the Vikings offense has been, the Vikings defense has been great. The Vikings are currently 12th in total yards allowed, 4th in rushing yards allowed, and 2nd in points allowed. The Vikings have actually allowed more passing yards than the Dolphins, but we all know about the bend-don’t break style of Flores’ defense. Where it gets scary is protecting the QB. The Vikings blitz more than any other team, at a rate of 66.4%. The next closest team is Chicago at 39.8%. That’s nearly 2/3 of the time. And it works because the Vikings are tops in the league in pressure percentage at 40.3%. The second-place team is Las Vegas at 36.3%, and we remember how that game went. The Chiefs blitz at a higher rate than most but only get pressure 20.2% of the time.
The Vikings not only blitz and disrupt the passing game, but they also get home. The Vikings lead the league with 14 sacks. They rank 4th in hurry percentage at 17.2% and tie for 1st with 23 hurries. If the ball does come out, they get the ball carrier to the ground. They are 2nd in missed tackles with only 7 (Miami is actually good here, tied for 6th with 12). When they aren’t getting to the QB or getting ball carriers to the ground, they are turning the ball over. They are 5th in turnover percentage at 16.2%. They are tied for 1st with 4 INTs and have forced 2 fumbles. They have the lowest passer rating allowed at 67.7 and allow a TD on only 2.6% of attempts. That’s a long-winded way of saying this defense can put opposing offenses in a bind, let alone one still struggling to find its footing. And even more so with a spurned, vindictive ex-HC licking his chops to make it as ugly as possible. The Dolphins will enter this game without their best weapon in Achane and their best receiver in Douglas possibly out. The Dolphins’ defense may have a chance to make a statement. The Dolphins offense may be in the part of hell that burns blue.
I said what I said
I foresee this being a slog-fest of a football game with very little scoring on either side. I would bet on the Vikings offense to score against Miami’s defense rather than the other way around. However, if there is one silver lining for the offense, it’s Malik Willis as a rushing threat. They have only faced one QB this season with true rushing prowess, and that was Caleb Williams. He went 5 for 42 in that game. If Slowik can use Willis strategically in the run game to force the Vikings to play more conservatively, the Dolphins will have a chance. Regardless, it would be nice if one side of the ball could finally have a breakout game.
