We can all easily remember a bunch of big plays from the 2026 season that came at crucial moments, and either helped the Yankees win or cost them in a loss. However, there is another way to look back at some of those moments beyond just racking the brain to recall them.
Win Probability Added is a statistic that measures how every play in a game changes the statistical likelihood of a team winning. As we continue through our end-of-season obituaries on this most recent campaign, I wanted to see how our memories
of the biggest plays match up with what WPA says were the most impactful ones. Here are two lists—one of the best plays and one of the worst—of the biggest WPA changes from the 2026 Yankees’ season.
Positive
3. Amed Rosario’s go-ahead home run (4/7 vs. Athletics, +0.526 WPA)
Rosario ended up having a disappointing season considering all he was re-signed to do was be a platoon bat. However at the start of the year, it seemed like he could be that and more, and this was a major reason why. Having already homered on the day, Rosario stepped to the plate in the eighth with the Yankees down 3-2. Facing former Yankee Mark Leiter Jr., Rosario took a pitch into the second deck in left field, despite facing a pitcher opposite-handed from the ones he was supposed to crush.
2. Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s go-ahead home run (7/10 at Nationals, +0.645 WPA)
For reasons I can’t entirely pinpoint, this ended up being the biggest play of the regular season according to Championship Win Probability Added, as it increased the Yankees’ World Series odds by 0.44 percent. However, I definifely understand how it changed this one game so much. Trailing the Nationals in the top of the ninth, Chisholm stepped to the plate with a runner on and one out against another former Yankee (albeit briefly), Matt Krook. He crushed one down the right-field line, as it stayed fair to give the Yankees a lead somewhat out of nowhere. Austin Wells chipped in with another homer later in the inning, as the Bombers hung on after that.
1. José Caballero’s walk-off double (4/15 vs. Angels, +0.663 WPA)
Having taken a 3-0 lead early, the Yankees had managed just three baserunners from the third through eighth innings, losing the lead to the Angels in the process. With familiar punching bag Jordan Romano on the bump for the Halos, however, they had a fighting chance. Chisholm singled with one out in the bottom of the ninth and Wells drew a walk. Both were then going when Caballero dropped a single into center field. The hit-and-run ended up being quite helpful. Chisholm probably would’ve scored anyway, but thanks to some nifty sliding, Wells managed to just beat the tag, flipping the score on one play and giving the Yankees a walk-off win.
However, now we have to get to the other side of the coin…
Negative
3. Coby Mayo’s go-ahead home run (5/11 at Orioles, -0.481 WPA)
As you might be able to tell from the rest of these lists, most of the big WPA swings come on events in the eighth, ninth, or extra innings. This one, however, cracked the list despite coming in the seventh. Ryan Weathers had been excellent on this day, keeping Baltimore off the board for six frames. He came back out for the seventh and got one out, but also gave up a single to Adley Rutschman and a walk to Tyler O’Neill. Aaron Boone then went to Brent Headrick. While the southpaw had a very good season, this happened on the third pitch he threw, eventually costing the Yankees the game.
2. Tyrone Taylor’s game-tying homer (5/17 at Mets, -0.483 WPA)
Even good closers blow games on occasion. While he’s not at a Mariano Rivera level or anything, David Bednar has been very good for the Yankees in his 1.5 years in the Bronx. However, this was a day to forget. Holding a three-run lead, Bednar allowed two singles to the Mets in the bottom of the ninth, but then bounced back by getting the next two outs. At that point, Bednar just needed one thing not to happen, it’s just that said thing then did. The Yankees got the game to extras after that, but ended up losing in the 10th.
1. Luis Campusano’s walk-off homer (9/4 at Padres, -0.719 WPA)
The biggest WPA swing in a game involving the Yankees was in fact one that went against them.
After a pitchers’ duel left the game 1-1 going into extra innings, the Yankees did the somewhat impossible and scored a run off Mason Miller in the top of the 10th. They had already used closer Bednar to get the game to extras to begin with and sent out the normally reliable Paul Blackburn for the bottom of the inning. Blackburn started the inning by winning a six-pitch battle over Xander Bogaerts. However, on the very next pitch he threw:
