I joined OTE full time just after the 2014 season, which means this is only the fourth bowl preview I’ve ever had the opportunity to do.
I never imagined I’d have to do them in consecutive seasons!
Illinois plays Tennessee in the ostensibly neutral-site Music City Bowl tomorrow, and I have a slow week at work. So instead of doing this methodically, I’m just going to write and research at the same time. Let’s start with what we know already:
Illinois
Illinois is a modestly silly football team with a productive
but inconsistent offense that struggles to run the ball. Senior quarterback Luke Altmyer has been very good both in and outside the pocket and has pretty adequate wheels. JC Davis and Melvin Priestly have been sufficiently stout at the tackle spots to keep Altmyer more upright than he was in 2023, but he was still sacked 31 times (9th in the country) despite only being 61st in the nation in attempts. Hank Beatty is a breakout star at receiver with Colin Dixon and Hudson Clement chipping in some yards. The Illini passing offense is not explosive but it is efficient.
Defensively, the Illini are a bit of a house of cards. Gabe Jacas led the Big Ten in sacks but his effectiveness was limited by the secondary’s poor coverage in many games. The defense is average against the run and horrendous against the pass. They simply don’t have the talent at DB that they had in 2024 (namely Xavier Scott) and haven’t compensated by bringing more pressure. When they can get to the quarterback it can be hard to get anything going against them (see Rutgers, Maryland). When they can’t, you have results like the Washington game.
Special teams is a decidedly mixed bag. Purdue transfer Keelan Crimmins has been a disappointment at punter, and while David Olano is absolutely nails from inside 50 yards, he doesn’t kick longer than that. Hank Beatty however is a solid return man.
Overall, Illinois has a passing offense that plays ball control and takes good care of the rock. Their defense can be carved up by quick passing attacks, but can feast on teams that dial up the deep ball too often.
Tennessee
The Volunteers lost out on the services of Luke Altmyer and are reportedly TOTALLY not mad about it at all. What I know about them without looking is that they lost to Georgia in overtime and also lost to two other playoff teams in Alabama and Oklahoma. They also got smoked by Vanderbilt. Who they beat I can’t quite recall, but putting up 41 on Georgia is nevertheless impressive. It would be easy to look at Illinois’ games against playoff opponents and compare them to Tennessee’s and conclude that the Vols are much more competitive against high-end opponents.
As we’ve been over, however, Alabama has no right being in the playoffs and I look forward to Curt Cignetti demonstrating this. Tennessee has played nobody of Indiana’s caliber, although there is only one such team and that is Indiana alone. I don’t know if Georgia is as good as Ohio State, but I don’t think Tennessee has a win as good as Illinois’ over USC.
Josh Heupel’s Vols have been notorious for fun offense and nonexistent defense, and I specifically recall a track meet between them and Jeff Brohm Purdue a few years back that may have been in this very same bowl.
Their orange is yellower than ours. Some would argue it’s closer to true orange, but I don’t think it looks as nice.
Apparently we’re being asked by our DIA to wear blue to the game as fans to better differentiate, since Tennessee will wear orange as the home team? I disagree with this, I think when orange teams get together it ought to be all orange in the stands. Orange is a great color for football teams and I love that somehow we’re STILL the only orange team in the Big Ten.
Anyway, let’s look closer!
sports-reference.com
I went to have a look at the game log and stats and now I remember that it was former App State Mountaineer Joey Aguilar who started at QB for the Vols this year, throwing 24 touchdowns and 10 picks. He had more yards per attempt than Altmyer, but Luke wins in adjusted YPA when the interceptions are factored in. Aguilar had many more yards on somewhat higher volume, leading the SEC with 287 passing yards per game. However, he only contributed one more total touchdown than did Altmyer.
Chris Brazzell is the standout receiver for the Vols, although two others went over 750 yards. Desean Bishop nearly cracked 1000 rushing yards as the lead back of a rotation that also featured 500 yards from Star Thomas.
Tennessee and Illinois both averaged 0.4 more turnovers gained than lost per game. Tennessee both threw and caught five more interceptions than Illinois.
The story that’s being painted so far is that Tennessee is a more exaggerated version of Illinois. They averaged over 480 yards of offense per game, but gave up 395. Their offense is better but turns it over more; their defense is worse and more dependent on turnovers.
Trial By Fired?
The gamelog reveals something truly fascinating.
Mississippi State is the only SEC team that lost to Tennessee and didn’t fire their head coach. The Vols played UAB, New Mexico State, East Tennessee State and Syracuse in the non-conference. They played eight conference games, losing four. Of the four SEC opponents they defeated, Kentucky, Florida and Arkansas all fired their head coaches. Florida’s was gone by the time they played Tennessee, but it’s a reflection on the quality of the season they had.
Three of the four conference rivals Tennessee beat were so embarrassed that they fired their head coach. Wow, they really ARE Illinois!
Well…actually…
For the first time since 2021, no Big Ten team that lost to Illinois fired their head coach.
CFBGRAPHS.COM and SP+
Consulting my good friends Parker Fleming and Bill Connelly could add some depth to the situation. Our sister site The Champaign Room has previously been accused of plagiarism for citing Parker Fleming, but the allegation (which came not from Fleming but from some Illini blogger who has somehow made himself the main character) were so weak that SBN corporate advised TCR not to change anything. I repeat: the case was so toothless that SBN CORPORATE STOOD BY THEIR EMPLOYEES’ WORK!
I would like to properly cite the man’s work, so here’s his site. Check it out. His preferred metric is success rate and he’s also responsible for the Did We Really Get Beat That Bad? rankings.
The only thing weaker than the aforementioned plagiarism allegation has been the Illini pass defense in terms of success rate, ranking 123rd in the nation. Tennessee’s defense is a mirror image, ranking 123rd in rushing defense success rate. CFBGRAPHS.COM actually likes Tennessee better both on offense AND defense and predicts a 29-28 victory for the Volunteers.
Meanwhile, Bill Connelly’s SP+ tells a story that isn’t all that different, rating Tennessee 4.0 points better than the Illini. Tennessee is the highest-rated offense the Illini have faced, but Western Michigan’s defense rates better than the Vols’ per SP+ and in fact only Rutgers and Purdue are rated worse among teams Illinois saw this year.
Opt-Outs
This is where my verdict is going to swing, because while I’m not aware of many opt-outs in this game, the two for Illinois are significant.
Tennessee’s leading receiver Chris Brazzell is out, and as a no-doubt NFL draft pick this is understandable. As I mentioned earlier, they’ll miss him but still have receiving threats. They’ll also be missing leading tackler Arion Carter, starting edge rusher Joshua Josephs and starting DB Colton Hood.
For Illinois, Gabe Jacas and left tackle JC Davis are sitting out. These are also no-doubt NFL draft picks. Jacas is a force of nature on the defensive line, but the loss of Davis might hurt more. He’s been by far the best offensive lineman for Illinois and they may not have another body to replace him. Josh Gesky has played tackle before, but it went quite poorly. The saving grace for Illinois is that Tennessee will also be missing their leading pass rusher, but I think Tennessee can replace Josephs more easily than Illinois can replace Davis.
Verdict
For that reason, I think Tennessee wins this one by a score something like 42-31. I don’t know how many miracles Luke Altmyer has in him but he’ll need quite a few. The defense has done a poor job of holding teams to field goals and without Jacas they might be much more vulnerable to the deep ball.
If this game turns one-sided, there’s a 90% chance it’s in favor of Tennessee.
I do however think this game has the potential to be an Absolute Banger thanks to how similar these two teams and their magnificently flawed defenses are.
