We’d have to travel in the way back machine to 2017 to find a team that had two 10+ game winning streaks and one 10+ game losing streak. That team was the Dodgers. It won 104 games and reached Game 7 of the World Series. So nothing in the numerology department says that the ship has struck an iceberg and we should all be heading for the life boats. If per se, you were looking for where you stowed your life jacket, I wouldn’t fault you though.
I’m not sure I’ve given up, but I will say after the first
inning Tuesday night, I realized I hadn’t yet watched the Survivor Season 50 finale. In fact, I still haven’t finished it, so for the three of you who have watched it, not spoiling it would be appreciated. If I can insert some gallows humor, I noted that the first inning did not, in fact, sink the Cubs. It was 5-0 after that first inning. They lost the other eight innings 7-1. So as bad as the first was, it got worse.
Life jackets. Yeah, depending on what your job is, if you work in the Cubs organization you might want to be looking for your life jacket. You know, or updating your resume. This kind of belly flop, with where the organization is right now today, it isn’t going to wholesale flip the front office. Most of those people have job security. But if this goes off the rails this badly, there are going to have to be some who pay the price. There’s a lot of season to go, but this looks like a fire the hitting coach(es) type of year. Perhaps take a look at your strength and conditioning or your training staff.
The injuries have ravaged the pitching staff and the offense continues to be inept. The offense is the really vexing part. They were really good. Until a few weeks ago. Then it just all collapsed. Increasingly since 2017, the Cubs have too many hitters with similar approaches. They go into long slumps and they tend to happen in concert with one another. This has been a reoccurring problem for years. I believe that the team has put so much emphasis on defense and good baserunning that they end up lacking enough really good hitters.
I don’t pretend to entirely understand all of the stats I see on Fangraphs. But I certainly understand relativity. The Cubs lead all teams on Fangraphs in terms of defensive WAR. It is indicated at 12.0 with the Dodgers second at 11.4. Third place (Red Sox) is 11.2 but then fourth drops all of the way down to 4.7. There are three teams WAY beyond all of the others defensively. Never get me wrong, that is a good thing. I love the defense that this Cub team plays.
BsR is the measure of baserunning on Fangraphs. The Cubs are at 0.1 which isn’t great. It’s 17th of 30 teams. Decent, but nothing amazing. If Nico Hoerner, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Matt Shaw got on base more, I suspect the Cubs would bump up some notches. The Cubs do rank 5th in the Fangraphs Offensive metric. That’s impressive. But the difference between 1st and 5th is 45.1 to 20.5. I may not understand everything that goes into the metric, but I do get relativity. The Dodgers by this measure are more than twice as good as the Cubs. That’s insane.
What does that difference look like in a slash line? As a team, the Dodgers have a .021/.010/.040 edge over the Cubs. Almost half a run per game. That’ll add up over time. So while offense remains the secondary strength of this team, this team lags a good bit behind the Dodgers, the standard bearer for offense in the modern game. Without an endless line of guys throwing in the upper 90’s and above, offense is the next best way to win ball games. Having both is the gold standard.
Cub pitchers are 21st in strikeouts per nine innings. They are a bit shy of two strikeouts per game behind the Brewers. They are 5th in walks per nine innings. They are 29th in homers per nine innings. Too many balls in play. Too many balls out of the park. 30th in homers per fly ball. 24th in FIP and these numbers are before the debacle that was game 55.
Not good enough.
Three Positives:
- Alex Bregman had two hits, one a double, and the only run scored.
- Carson Kelly had a pair of singles
- Pete Crow-Armstrong had a single and was hit by a pitch.
For what it’s worth, if you tuned out on the game like I did, Fangraphs had the FIP at 1.07 and the xFIP at 2.46 for Hoby Milner’s outing. For that matters, they had xFIP at 3.43 for Jordan Wicks. I know I saw one of those scorecard features that show up on social media that the stuff was decent for Wicks but the execution terrible. I always hope after a first inning like this one that the pitcher is tipping his pitches. As rough as that is, that’s at least something you can fix. Five runs because they picked something up on you is rough. Five runs because you just weren’t up the challenge is a problem.
Game 55, May 26: Pirates 12, Cubs 1 (29-26)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Alex Bregman (.074). 2-4, 2B, R
- Hero: Michael Busch (.023). 1-4, BB
- Sidekick: Kevin Alcántara (.000). 0-1
- Note: Hoby Milner also posted .000, but in this instance, I utilized official scorer’s discretion and credited the performance that was “better” or “more valuable” to the team. Or in this case, less detrimental.
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Jordan Wicks (-.331). 4.1 IP, 24 BF, 9 H, BB, 8 ER, 5 K (L 0-1)
- Goat: Seiya Suzuki (-.088). 0-3, HBP, DP
- Kid: Nico Hoerner (-.060). 1-5
WPA Play of the Game: Brandon Lowe batted with a runner on first in the first inning with no outs. He singled and the runners ended up at second and third after Pete Crow-Armstrong threw to third to try to get the lead runner. (.099)
Cubs Play of the Game: Ian Happ batted with a runner on second and no outs in the second, the Cubs down 5. He doubled, driving in the lone Cub run. (.059)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 54 Winner: Ben Brown received 112 of 114 votes (at 98.25%, the highest percentage to date this year).
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Michael Busch +20
- Nico Hoerner +12
- Michael Conforto +9
- Alex Bregman +7.5
- Shōta Imanaga +7
- Ryan Rolison -8
- Phil Maton -9
- Matt Shaw -10
- Dansby Swanson -12
- Seiya Suzuki -25.5
Current Win Pace: 85.42 wins
Up Next: Game three of the four-game series on Wednesday night. Jameson Taillon (2-4, 5.20, 55.1 IP) makes his 11th start of the season. He’s lost three straight and allowed 12 runs over his last 9.2 innings of work. 23-year-old Bubba Chandler (1-6, 4.60, 47 IP) is also making his 11th start of the year. He’s lost his last two starts and hasn’t won since April 17. Last time out, he was undone by his defense, allowing three unearned runs over five innings. Taillon’s most recent win is April 29, so he’s had the more recent success of the two. Chandler was the 72nd pick of the 2021 draft by the Pirates, right out of high school.
One of these days, the tide will turn. But it’s getting hard to keep the faith.
