There is no question the Heat are better than they were last season.
They added Giannis Antetokounmpo.
That alone raises their ceiling.
The harder question is whether it raises their regular-season floor enough to comfortably clear 44.5 wins.
I am not sure it does.
Miami Heat: Over/Under 44.5 wins
Over: -105
Under: -120
To win NBA Championship: +4000
To win Eastern Conference: +1500
To win Southeast Division: +195
Last season: 43-39, 10th in the East, lost in the Play-In Tournament
Key additions: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bobby Portis, Klay Thompson, Tim Hardaway Jr., Nick Richards, Ryan Conwell Key losses:
Tyler Herro, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kel’el Ware, Kasparas Jakučionis, Norman Powell, Nate Ament
The case for the under
This Heat team reminds me a little bit of what Dallas tried to do with Anthony Davis and a bunch of bigger wings.
The defense makes sense immediately.
The offense does not.
Miami could absolutely be one of those teams that holds opponents around 100 points, forces miserable half-court possessions and still somehow finds itself in a tie game with four minutes left because it cannot consistently create clean offense.
Giannis is obviously a massive upgrade, but the spacing around him is questionable.
Bam is not a high-volume shooter. Wiggins has always been streaky. Mitchell does not command respect behind the line. Klay and Hardaway Jr. were clearly brought in to address that issue, but both are older and neither should be carrying a major offensive burden at this point in their careers. Miami also lost a lot of actual shot creation in Herro and Norman Powell.
That matters over 82 games. The Heat may be built better for a seven-game series than they are for consistently beating mediocre teams in January.
There is also the age factor. Giannis is 31. Bam is 29. Wiggins is 31. Portis is 31. Klay is 36. Hardaway is 34. This isn’t a young roster you expect to sprint through the regular season. There will probably be maintenance nights, random injuries, and stretches where Spoelstra cares much more about getting everyone right for April than chasing a top seed.
And the East is crowded. Philadelphia loaded up. New York is defending a championship. Atlanta got deeper. Cleveland, Detroit, Orlando, Boston and Toronto all expect to be competitive. Even the Southeast Division itself is not a walkover with Atlanta and Orlando sitting there.
Miami can absolutely be dangerous in the postseason and still finish with 42 or 43 wins.
I actually think that is a very realistic outcome.
They are going to defend. They are going to make teams miserable. They are going to have nights where Giannis simply overwhelms people.
But I also think there will be a lot of ugly 104-100 games where Miami’s lack of shooting and clean half-court creation becomes obvious.
That sounds a lot more like a play-in-range regular-season team than a 50-win one.
