If you paid attention to Sunday’s Spring Training game (and to be honest, why would you?), you knew this was coming.
Despite the fact that the Braves are relying on him to be useful, Reynaldo Lopez is very much a wild card heading into the 2026 season, which begins in earnest this week. Lopez was a revelation as a starter in 2024. He missed over a month collectively with injury, but when he was on the hill, he threw up a 48/74/85 line that was: A) good; B) not as good as his outputs but still plenty
good anyway; and, C) potentially complicated by a deliberate approach of taking it easy in situations like the bases empty, therefore attempting to directly influence stuff like strand rate and things like gaps between inputs, contact quality, and results.
Unfortunately for everyone, Lopez was basically toast for all of 2025, making just one start and otherwise sitting out the campaign with shoulder woes. Come 2026, as noted, the Braves are relying on Lopez being all systems nominal, but, well…
In 2024, Lopez sat around 95 mph with his four-seamer in Spring Training, where he ultimately convinced the Braves to give him a rotation spot. He eventually ramped up to about 96 mph over the course of the season, adding about a tick relative to him getting loose in the Grapefruit League. Whether because he was taking it easy due to the recurring shoulder issues, or because the shoulder was just not in great shape, Lopez sat only 93 mph for 2025 Spring Training; he actually aired it back out to the same fastball velocity in his one regular season start that year, but we know how things went.
Come 2026, Lopez’ Spring Training efforts were at 92, 92, 93, and 92 before Sunday’s game. Then, his velocity plummeted to around 89 mph, but there was no ostensible sign of injury, nor did the Braves cut the outing short. Lopez also looked and pitched out of sorts — it was his first truly horrid start of 2026 Spring Training, and he had pitched pretty well despite an elevated walk rate in his other four outings, even with the lower velocity.
So, the question is — is this just a blip, or an ominous sign of things to come?
On the blip side, you could argue some combination of him just getting his work in and definitely conserving energy ahead of the season actually starting soon, as well as a normal and/or post-injury-recovery dead arm period that often comes up as a valid/get-the-microphone-away-from-me excuse during Spring Training.
On the portentous side, you have the fact that Lopez did in fact miss nearly all of 2025 after missing a chunk of 2024, was already not throwing as hard this Spring Training compared to prior years, and the anecdotal-ish idea that sometimes shoulder issues in pitchers can sometimes present as loss of oomph without a blatant twinge or source of discomfort that would generally lead to an exam and a shutdown of pitching (a la what happens with elbows).
You can read the fact that the Braves didn’t remove Lopez and let him struggle with diminished stuff for inning after inning as support for the former, though we’ve seen enough weird pitcher injury (non-)management stuff from the team in recent years, too, to make this less of a slam dunk reading.
Anyway, put all that together, and the question is: how far into the season do you think Lopez makes it before hitting the shelf? It was one start last year, it was much of the season in 2024, though it ultimately happened anyway. To be clear, I’m not asking for an innings total or a start total, or whether he gets moved to the bullpen. I’m just asking: when do you expect him to hit the Injured List for the first time in 2026?
