The Cubs have played 101 games and have scored 519 runs.
Just what does this have to do with MLB’s Trade Deadline, which comes up in just 12 days?
Let’s look at some numbers from this season and then I’ll explain further.
That run total of 519 ranks fourth in MLB, behind the Dodgers (526) and perhaps a bit surprisingly, the Pirates (538) and Nationals (559).
You did not have “The Nationals will lead MLB in runs in late July” on your 2026 MLB Bingo card, I’m pretty sure.
The 519 runs are probably a larger
total than you might have expected from this Cubs team at this juncture of the season, too. The Cubs scored 793 runs in 2025, 4.895 per game. That’s up this year; the current Cubs average per game is at 5.14.
If they were to keep up that pace, they’d score 832 runs, and if they do that, it would be the fifth 800+ run season for the Cubs since 2016 — after doing it just once between 1971 and 2015 (855 in 2008, which is the most for any Cubs team since 1930).
The 519 runs is also nine more than the division rival Brewers have scored, which is a very good thing. The main reason, then, that the Cubs find themselves six games out of first place entering today’s action is pitching.
The Brewers pitching staff has allowed 378 runs, third-fewest in MLB, close behind the Dodgers and Red Sox (both at 373). The Cubs staff ranks 14th in that category with 450 runs allowed. That makes Milwaukee’s expected W/L record based on runs scored and allowed 64-37, one game better than their actual record. The Cubs’ expected W/L record based on runs scored and allowed is exactly what their actual record is at 57-44. The Cubs are also second-worst in most homers allowed (155; the A’s lead with 158). The Brewers rank tied for third-fewest homers allowed: 100.
So it’s clear — the Cubs do have a chance to overtake the Brewers for the division title if they can get the pitching staff improved. That will require one or more of the following to happen in the 61 games remaining:
- Bettr performance by the guys already on the team
- Returns to action from injured pitchers and quality performance from them
- Trades for quality starters and/or relievers
The MLB Trade deadline comes up one week from next Monday. I believe the Cubs will acquire some pitching talent, and the bats will continue to produce. This is what Cubs President of Baseball Operations Jed Hoyer said recently about trades:
“I think you have to go into the deadline thinking about it analytically,” Hoyer said last Friday. “Thinking about OK, getting a bye is effectively winning a series and weakening your opponent in the next series. That’s a really big deal. So if the odds say that you can do that, then that’s a different equation than if not. I think you have to be aware of those things.”
Which tells us… not much, really. And so, as always, we await developments.
