Last time:
Yoshinobu Yamamoto versus Chris Sale should be a duel of the ages. The problem is we saw that duel play out on August 27, when Sale made a first-inning home run stand up in a complete-game shutout. In order to retake control of this series, the Dodgers need to take advantage of their supposed depth to do something that they haven’t done all year: win in Atlanta.
They’ll have two tries to do it.
About that…Yamamoto did it in one, and then some. Now, like Godot, the Dodgers wait before heading
to Milwaukee.
That’s Shogun Yamamoto, Bane of Toronto, to you
The last general to be this successful in Atlanta was arguably William Tecumseh Sherman. As for the Dodgers’ chances, Yoshinobu Yamamoto is what happened; that’s what.
Yamamoto tossed any thoughts of a 2022 redux out the window in another dominant performance. Moreover, he got run support on the road. Two amazing statistics popped up from Yamamoto’s Game 3 gem, mostly concerning Yamamoto’s dominance on the road when he actually gets run support.
First, in his MLB career, he is 34-0 in the playoffs and regular season when he gets at least three runs of run support. It should be at least 35-0, if one recalls a certainly cool night in Baltimore last year.
Second, Yamamoto is the first pitcher in MLB history to earn the victory in his last five straight postseason appearances while not allowing more than a single run or walk in any of them. All five of these appearances have been on the road.
- Game 2 ‘25 NLCS @ Milwaukee
- Game 2 ‘25 WS @ Toronto
- Game 6 ‘25 WS @ Toronto
- Game 7 ‘25 WS @ Toronto
- Game 3 ‘26 NLDS @ Atlanta
Third, per Baseball Reference, in 2026, he is 0-9 when the Dodgers fail to score more than two runs in his starts. But the main point is, on the road, he finds another gear. Remember, he didn’t have his best no-hitter/perfect game bids at Dodger Stadium; it was on the road (in the aforementioned Baltimore in 2025 and the South Side of Chicago in 2026).
- Home (2026) .190/.247/.350 against in 16 games, 14 HR allowed, 106 K vs 24 BB
- Away (2026) .171/.225/.255 against in 12 games, 6 HR allowed, 76 K vs 18 BB
At this point, the Dodgers could slot in the rotation for the NLCS to be:
- Game 1 — @ MKE, Tarik Skubal
- Game 2 — @ MKE, Yamamoto
- Game 3 — vs. MKE, Blake Snell
- Game 4 — vs. MKE, Tyler Glasnow
- Game 5, if necessary — @ MKE, Tarik Skubal
- Game 6, if necessary — @ MKE, Yamamoto
- Game 7, if necessary — @ MKE, Blake Snell / Johnny Wholestaff
Still, it’s food for thought for later.
Chopped Atlanta’s season short
Turns out the actual cost I warned about last time was a single leverage game. Yes, the Dodgers ground down Chris Sale and outlasted Tyler Mahle. But had the Dodgers taken care of business, this series would have ended in a sweep.
Maybe it could have gone sideways; maybe it should have. But the fact is that it didn’t, and all my benchmarks for disappointment have been cleared.
Still, the extra, leverage game allowed the Dodgers to score by another method apart from home run. Errors and singles — in this economy?!? From Andy Pages, no less?!? Pages’ postseason splits were brutal before the last two games, and that description is generous. It’s worth noting that Pages’ single was a seeing-eye grounder, barely over 92 mph.
If I have said it once during this postseason, I will say it a thousand times: I don’t care how hard you hit into an out; I don’t care how hard you throw ball four. There is value in adjusting to what the defense gives you and passing the baton to sustain an actual rally.
In the best-case scenario, Game 4 might have provided an opportunity to smooth out some rougher edges before the seemingly destined rematch with the Milwaukee Brewers starting Sunday in Cream City.
One last note before switching gears: after Atlanta bested Philadelphia in the Wild Card Round, I stumbled across some footage of The ATL locals proclaiming that they wanted the Dodgers. It didn’t seem to get much traction when I posted it here.
They got the Dodgers alright. Mission accomplished. It doesn’t help that Atlanta matched a level of offensive futility with runners in scoring position not seen since the 1966 Los Angeles Dodgers, who were infamously swept by the Baltimore Orioles.
When you make the 2025 Toronto Blue Jays in the World Series look like an offensive juggernaut with runners in scoring position (3 for 17 in Game 7 alone), something has gone awry.
Knowing the Senior Circuit
Meanwhile, in the two other series that concluded on October 7, there were matchups of Goofus (New York Yankees, San Diego Padres) versus Gallant (Tampa Bay Rays, Milwaukee Brewers). To the surprise of no one, Gallant eliminated Goofus on the same night in both contests.
The Yankees being bested by the same flaws that doomed them in 2024 is both unsurprising and funny. I have had my finger on the Padres’ pulse for a while now:
It’s this current group of [Padres] players who are as unlikeable and obnoxious as any bunch I can recall. The funny thing is that if they had actually done anything to justify the attitude, I would accept it as the winner’s prerogative.
Since they haven’t won anything, it’s just obnoxious.
Yes, they have been playing well in September, and their bullpen is formidable. I wanted the Dodgers to trade for Mason Miller last year. I even went to Sutter Health Park on his bobblehead day to get both the bobblehead and art for the subsequent Guide entry. Oh well.
The Padres have to get past the Cubs, which is an oddly compelling matchup that could easily fill a five-game or even seven-game series. Alas, it’s only three games as an amuse-bouche.
We don’t need extra playoffs; we need to savor what we have.
Seeing the Padres send the Cubs packing would likely be quite satisfying. In some respects, I am honestly rooting for every game to go to extra innings, and if a wayward meteor or an errant probe looking for whales happened by, who is to complain?
I was rightfully proud of that last reference that seemed to sail by without notice. If you can’t make a Star Trek IV reference, especially when I used to work right by Chinatown in San Francisco, then what are we all doing here? Once again, me:
The just reward of that hypothetical Padres’ victory is that the Brewers are waiting, looming, if not salivating, for the winner. Most likely, the Padres’ dreams are smashed in Cream City, but not until giving the Brewers all that they can handle.
I goofed slightly in thinking this series would go five games, maybe forcing wunderkind Jacob Misiorowski into Game 5 service. Alas, the forecasts of mice and men.
And then, as if to make my point a week after I made, YouTuber Steve Linkowski provided two minutes of distilled video ambrosia summarizing the last half-decade of San Diego failure.
A deeper write-up of the upcoming Dodgers/Brewers revenge matchup will come soon, but, per Sarah Langs, it’s the twelfth time since LCS play began that there has been the same pairing of LCS opponents in consecutive years. From 1976 to 1978, it was Groundhog Day for Kansas City in facing off with the New York Yankees.
Per my follow-up check, in five of the last six matchups, the loser of round 1 won the rematch, à la Rocky II. I noticed it; now you get to notice it. Of course, the one time where there was no revenge was the Dodgers getting flattened by the Phillies in 2008 and 2009, which feels like such ancient history that it bears no further mention.
I think Milwaukee is better this time around, both in personnel and in health. Anyone expecting another waltz to another Fall Classic likely will be sorely disappointed by the actual dogfight awaiting over the next week.
At the beginning of the year, I made a series of forecasts that I published online but did not make that much of a fuss about, apart from predicting 92 regular-season Dodger victories.
I have generally enjoyed these playoffs so far, even when the Dodgers are triggering past summer traumas. I have learned something so far: when it comes to Junior Circuit, I know somewhere between diddly and squat.
But when it comes to the National League, I generally know what I’m talking about.
Anticipating the Future…
- Byes: Toronto, Seattle, Philadelphia, Dodgers
- Wild Card: Texas over Detroit, Boston over New York, Milwaukee over Chicago, Atlanta over New York
- Division Series: Toronto over Texas, Seattle over Boston, Philadelphia over Milwaukee, Los Angeles over Atlanta
- Championship Series: Seattle over Toronto, Los Angeles over Philadelphia
- World Series: Dodgers over Mariners in five — you say “Next year in Seattle” long enough, eventually you have to commit to the bit.
…Compared to what actually happened
As to the matchups, my NL bracket is looking significantly better than my AL bracket.
- Wild Card: Boston over New York in 3 (oops), Houston over Chicago in 2 (oops), San Diego over Chicago in 3 (darn Cubs), Atlanta over Philadelphia in 2 (Philly had some life, huh)
- Division Series: Tampa over Boston in 4 (right result, wrong opponent, wrong length), Houston over Cleveland in 4 (the White Sox building a 2-0 lead just to cough it up is so funny), Milwaukee over San Diego in 5 (bums!), Los Angeles over Atlanta in 4
- Championship Series: Tampa over Houston in 6, Los Angeles over Milwaukee in 6
- World Series: Los Angeles over Tampa in 5. It’s 2020 all over again, except this time, the Dodgers clinch at the Trop.
I don’t claim to be perfect, and I own up to when I make a mistake. However, my takes are never generally hysterical (see The California Post), and if one needs to feel better, or, at the very least, marvel at how some people somehow continue to work in this field for pay, we return to the predictive powers of Ben Verlander.
It’s arguable that when Dave Roberts calls someone his “pick to click,” it actually is a pronouncement of doom. But when Ben Verlander picks a team to win, that act truly is a figurative death sentence. His lack of predictive power is truly astounding. In 2025, in the preseason, he predicted Atlanta would beat Houston, before switching in the playoffs to the Phillies beating Seattle.
Behold what he came up with for this year.
On Wednesday night, the figurative champagne corks were popped as the Yankees were eliminated, putting the final nail in this bit and begging the question of whether he actually watches baseball.
