Staff Predictions: Florida State Seminoles vs NC State Wolfpack

The Florida State Seminoles are on the road to face the NC State Wolfpack (5-5, 2-4 ACC) for their final ACC matchup of the season Friday night in Raleigh, N.C. Kickoff is set for 8:00 p.m. and the game will be televised on ESPN for the Wolfpack’s 27th-straight sellout game at Carter-Finley Stadium, with the winner earning bowl eligibility.

Florida State (5-5, 2-5 ACC) leads the all-time series with NC State 27-16, including 11 wins in Raleigh, and a 19-12 overall advantage since FSU joined the ACC for

the 1992 season. However, NC State has won the last three matchups with Florida State and five of the last six meetings. Those three straight victories are the most for NC State in the history of the series vs. FSU, and they will be going for their 4th in a row. The Wolfpack’s only loss to the Seminoles since 2015 was in 2019. The Wolfpack has outscored the Seminoles 85-17 in the first quarter of the last nine games in the series.

NC State has won 31 of its last 39 games in Carter-Finley Stadium, and 10 of its previous 13 home games in November, tying for the most November home victories in the ACC, dating back to the 2020 season. That includes the Wolfpack’s upset of eighth-ranked Georgia Tech on Nov. 1, in which Sophomore quarterback CJ Bailey had 374 total yards, threw for 2 touchdowns, and rushed for another. Bailey, from Chaminade-Madonna High, is listed at 6’6” and 213, has thrown 19 TD throws, the third-best mark in the ACC and 19th in the FBS. His 2,531 passing yards in 2025 rank third in the ACC and 20th in the FBS.

NC State is the only school in the Power Four that boasts seven receivers with 20 or more catches in 2025. TE Justin Joly (37), WRs Terrell Anderson (32), Noah Rogers (29), Keenan Jackson (23), Teddy Hoffman (22), and Wesley Grimes (20), as well as RB Hollywood Smothers (30), have all hit that mark. All seven of them have scored at least one touchdown. Tight end Justin Joly, who was named a semifinalist for the Mackey Award last week, is the Wolfpack’s leading receiver with 37 receptions for 372 yards. He ranks fifth among P4 tight ends with 4.1 catches per game.

Redshirt sophomore Hollywood Smothers led the ACC in rushing for most of the season, before an injury sidelined him vs. Georgia Tech and limited him vs Miami. He now ranks second in the ACC in rushing with 91.4 yards per game and 20th in the nation. Redshirt freshman running back Jayden ‘Duke’ Scott got the start against GT with Smothers out, and rushed for 196 yards on the night against the Yellow Jacket defense.

Linebacker and team captain Caden Fordham leads all Power Four and ACC players in total tackles with 10.3 per game. He has led or tied the team in tackles seven times in 10 games this season and has six double-figure tackle games, including 15 stops versus both Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech.

TRIVIA: Fordham’s father, Todd, was a four-year letterman as an offensive lineman for FSU and started 36 consecutive games during the 1994-96 seasons. As a junior in 1995, he did not allow a sack or pressure all year. As the senior offensive team captain, he started every game at right offensive tackle before moving to right guard for the last two contests. He surrendered just one sack and had a team-high 30 pancake blocks during his senior year, earning All-ACC second-team honors.

According to FanDuel, Florida State is a 4.5-point favorite, with the over/under set at 61.5 points.

As we await the kickoff, enjoy some highlights from FSU’s last win over NC State in 2019, which was Willie Taggart’s 2nd to last win as the FSU Head Coach.

Read what your TOMAHAWK NATION PROGNOSTICATORS think about this Saturday’s showdown.
Then look over and digest all the FREE PRE-GAME CONTENT we’ve posted leading up to this game.
We would love to hear your thoughts about how you feel about this game and your final score prediction in the comments.

Curt Weiler (season record: 3-7)

I don’t think NC State is especially good. But Florida State also hasn’t proven it can win a road game yet, and Carter-Finley Stadium has been a real house of horrors for the Seminoles. Given the road inconsistency, I’m in “I’ll believe they can win a road game when I see it” territory. And given the general inconsistency of the season, it feels fitting that bowl eligibility will come down to the final game of the season with a loss Friday night.

NC State 28, Florida State 24

NoleThruandThru (season record: 3-7)

Carter-Finley is a house of horrors for FSU on Thursday and Friday nights, regardless of how good or bad the Wolfpack may be. I can’t stand Dave Doeren or their ziplock-bags-full-of-urine-throwing fans. I said I wouldn’t pick FSU again for the rest of the season following that horrendous Stanford loss, so here’s hoping the reverse jinx works for the second week in a row.

NC State 28, FSU 24

Matt Minnick (season record: 4-6; 6-4 ATS)

I was confident the ‘Noles would win and cover against VT because FSU has been a good team at home this year (again, the middle 20 minutes of the Miami game notwithstanding). Unfortunately, Florida State has been equally bad on the road. I recall back after the UVA game, I said something like “well, if we can play our B- or C+ game and still take it double OT, we must be pretty good.” Turns out that was FSU’s A+ road performance, as it’s been markedly worse in subsequent trips away from Tallahassee. Making matters worse, Carter-Finley Stadium is a house of horrors for brand-name teams. Of course, like my guy Curt Cignetti said before Indiana won in Happy Valley for the first time, “this team has never played in Carter-Finley.”

What about the actual teams? NC State started the year 3-0 with solid wins over ECU, UVA, and Wake Forest. Since then, Mr. and Mrs. Wuf have crashed the car in a ditch, going just 2-5 since September 20, with one of those two wins coming over Campbell. The other? A 48-36 home win over Georgia Tech, exactly the kind of brand-name upset at Carter Finley I mentioned. The problem for NCSU during this 2-5 stretch has been defense. They’ve given up an average of 41.5 points over their last 4 games. That would seem like bad news, facing one of the top offensive units in the nation, in FSU. But on the road, FSU’s offense has put up a lot of yards on the scoreboard, but not points. This far into the season, the trend is your friend.

NC State 30, Florida State 20

Jordan Silversmith (season record: 5-5)

I agree with the sentiment stated above; nothing proves FSU can get rolling on the road. See if you can spot the trend here: In FSU’s road loss against Virginia, the Noles scored 0 points in the 1st quarter. In FSU’s road loss against Stanford, the Noles scored 0 points in the 1st quarter. In FSU’s road loss against Clemson, the Noles scored 0 points in the 1st quarter. Not being ready to play has been a trend all season, which intensified on the road and was exacerbated by a short week.

I imagine Florida State will score points and feed Duce Robinson. I also think that the passing defense will not do a great job slowing down NCSU QB CJ Bailey. Ultimately, this game comes down to trust, and nothing so far gives me confidence that Florida State can pull it out.

NCSU 38, FSU 31

Tim Scribble (season record: 5—5)

A short week, night game at Carter-Finley— we’ve seen this nightmare play out in years past. Will FSU struggle in its attempt at bowl eligibility? Will NC State quarterback CJ Bailey keep the Seminole defense on the field for long, drawn-out drives? Will we also see a shirtless, overweight man losing his mind in the stands?

I think there’s a high probability we go 3/3 on those questions.

NC State 28, FSU 27

Frank Denole (season record: 5-5)

If DC Tony White can scheme a defense that can contain NC’s running game, this game could be in garbage time mid-way through the 4th quarter. He also needs to make sure someone accounts for their tight end. If the defense is not able to stop their running game, it could become a shoot-out, which I believe FSU will still win.

At the end of the night, FSU will be bowl eligible, while the Wolfpack will not be. The Nole players and fans just need to be aware of the NC State fans’ love of urinating in plastic bags.

FSU Seminoles 38, Wolf Mongrels 24

Perry Kostidakis (season record: 4-6, 4-6 ATS)

It’s a shame that a win here wouldn’t be an additional feather in the cap of a true bounce-back season, given how hard it has been to win in Raleigh, and instead can be chalked up as another “what if,” but it would at least put FSU back in line with preseason expectations. A game that was pinpointed as a potential slip-up even before the season started, there’s a lot at stake for Florida State in this game — bowl eligibility, snapping a losing streak in the series vs. NC State and earning a road win for the first time in two years chief amongst them.

With the team arguably the healthiest they have been since the beginning of the season, Florida State is in a good spot to get over all those aforementioned humps. The Friday aspect of the game doesn’t throw me off too hard — it’s more the away game factor. Florida State has clearly shown an inability to set the tone early even in home matchups and Carter-Finley Stadium is unrelenting. What helps, at least, is that outside of its upset of Georgia Tech, NC State hasn’t been particularly good. Only one loss (to Virginia Tech) has been by less than 12 points, only two (45-33 to Duke) less than 20. While Florida State has had a similar season in the standings, the advanced stats still show that the Seminoles are closer to 7-3 than their actual 5-5 record with the Wolfpack’s profile more in line with what’s reflected.

FSU 34, NC State 28