Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, November 29 at 7:00 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN+
- Location: Raymond James Stadium — Tampa, FL
- Spread: South Florida (-27.5)
- Over/under: 59.5
- All-time series: Series tied, 1-1
- Last meeting: Rice 35, South Florida 28 — November 30, 2024
- Current streak: Rice, 1 (2024)
Setting the scene
As of the Thanksgiving morning, Alex Golesh remains the head coach of the South Florida Bulls (8-3, 5-2 American). The third-year frontman is entangled in rumors at the moment, causing USF CEO of Athletics
Rob Higgins to release a statement regarding the matter Tuesday night.
Thus, South Florida proceeds as normal, hunting its first 9-win season on senior day against the Rice Owls (5-6, 2-5 American). The Bulls are still technically alive for their first-ever American title, but they’ll need significant help (losses by two of Tulane, North Texas, and Navy) and favorability in computer rankings in order to qualify.
Their opponent is playing for something significant too. Rice is hunting bowl eligibility, on the verge of its second 6-win season since 2014. The Owls enter Raymond James Stadium looking for a second-straight regular season finale triumph over the Bulls.
Rice Owls outlook
Scott Abell is well ahead of schedule with his rebuild of Rice. The Owls, which haven’t recorded a winning season in 11 years, are a victory away from bowl eligibility. However, attaining that feat requires knocking off a team as four-touchdown underdogs — which would surpass UCLA over Penn State and UAB over Memphis as the largest spread upsets of the 2025 season.
But Rice looks to gain an edge by zagging where South Florida zigs. The Owls play a completely antithetical style, utilizing a methodical option-style offense to counter the Bulls’ up-tempo explosive unit. As a result, Rice ranks top 10 nationally in time of possession, while USF is second-to-last in the FBS. Thus, it’s in the Owls’ best interest to shorten this game and provide their opponent as few opportunities as possible. Rice managed this strategy well through the first 14 minutes vs. North Texas last week, consuming massive amounts of clock to keep the Mean Green offense off the field. But once the Owls suffered their first offensive setback on a fourth down stop, they never recovered, being forced to play from behind.
Rice’s shotgun option attack is led by quarterback Chase Jenkins and running backs Quinton Jackson and D’Andre Hardeman Jr. Jenkins excelled with 75 rushing yards last week against North Texas, elevating his season total to 497. Rice doesn’t call too many passing plays for the redshirt sophomore (4th-fewest attempts in FBS), but Jenkins is efficient in the short throw game with nine touchdowns and only two interceptions on a 69.3 completion rate — maxing out with a season-high of 191.
Jackson and Hardeman handle most of the carries in the offense, with Jackson serving as the centerpiece. The speedy tailback is up to 808 yards and six touchdowns on the year, picking up 5.0 yards per carry. One other skill position player to watch — as both a rusher and receiver — is Aaron Turner. Turner is fresh off a 58-yard receiving, 75-yard rushing game producing one touchdown in each department, and he hopes to replicate that multifaceted excellence in what could be his final collegiate game.
Rice’s defense was its strength for much of the year, but the Owls could only do so much against North Texas’ No. 1 ranked scoring offense and total offense. Rice surrendered 52 points and 640 yards, giving up explosive plays to the point where North Texas wide receiver Wyatt Young had 295 receiving yards on only eight receptions. But one game prior, Rice produced a second half shutout vs. UAB, so the caliber of defensive play certainly shifts based on the caliber of opponent. Given USF’s offensive numbers, this will be a difficult matchup for Rice. Linebackers Ty Morris and Andrew Awe (160 combined tackles, 14.5 combined TFLs) must apply significant backfield pressure and set the Bulls backward with sacks.
Another name to watch on the Owls’ defense is safety Marcus Williams, who will be tested through several vertical shots. Williams is the active team leader in pass deflections, and he’ll aim to finally jump-start Rice’s turnover game — as the Owls have only secured three interceptions heading into Week 14.
South Florida Bulls outlook
South Florida hopes for a stroke of fortune to qualify for the American Championship, but even if the balls don’t bounce their way, it’s been an excellent resurgent season for Alex Golesh and Co. South Florida is enjoying its best season since 2017, and by winning out, the Bulls could find themselves in the final rankings for the first time in eight years.
One key to the Bulls’ success is their high-octane offense. USF ranks fifth in the FBS in scoring at 42.2 points per game and second in yardage at 497 per game, regularly thriving through the air and ground. The offense is peaking at the right time, averaging 8.3 yards per play across its last three outings — leading all FBS teams in a 3-game stretch. South Florida has reached 48 points in six of 11 games this year, and its only two conference defeats were games it scored 38 and 31.
Holding the keys to the offense is quarterback Byrum Brown — perhaps the quarterback that embodies the term “dual-threat” more than anyone in the country. He ranks fourth in the FBS (and first among non-service academy QBs) in quarterback rushing yards, closing in on the millennium mark with 907 on the year. Brown’s 4-game 100-yard streak snapped last at UAB, but he still racked up 63 yards and two touchdowns to lead a 30-point win.
Brown’s rushing abilities are well documented to the point where he is underrated as a passer. Last year, he became the first 3,000-yard quarterback in South Florida history, and this year, he is 117 yards away from doing it twice. Brown’s last two games featured his two highest passing totals of the year, and both of those 320+ performances were done with pinpoint accuracy, completing 74 percent of passes over that span.
The veteran quarterback is equipped with a tall, physical receiver room — featuring a slew of 6’2” and 6’3” talents. Many of them turn 50-50 jump balls into 75-25 balls, and they are capable of lighting up defensive backs in 1-on-1 coverage. These receivers include Keshaun Singleton and Jeremiah Koger, who average 17.1 and 15.8 yards per catch, respectively, as big-play threats. Both receivers have six touchdowns on the year, oftentimes striking from 30+ yards out.
South Florida’s run game features a similar type of explosiveness with its top two running backs — Nykahi Davenport and Sam Franklin — averaging north of 6.0 yards per carry. Davenport is hitting his stride in November, producing 94 yards and two touchdowns vs. UTSA in Week 11 and setting his career-high at 121 last week at UAB.
The USF defense is one that thrives on chaos, checking in at sixth in the FBS with 23 takeaways. South Florida also features a strong run defense, limiting opponents to a 3.6 rushing average, which is a quality that especially comes in handy vs. Rice. Linebackers Mac Harris and Jhalyn Shuler are both all-conference locks for their contributions to the run defense and turnover battle, with Harris producing 93 tackles, six sacks, two interceptions, and three forced fumbles, and Shuler adding 88 tackles, seven pass breakups, and two forced fumbles.
The pass defense has been shakier, ranking 128th in the FBS, but Rice likely won’t challenge the Bulls’ defensive backs by stretching the field vertically.
Prediction
North Texas proved to be a difficult matchup for Rice as an explosive, up-tempo offense that thrives on explosives. South Florida is structured similarly, and the Bulls should be able to spit out another offensive masterclass Saturday against the Owls. Five American Conference opponents already surrendered 48 points or greater to Alex Golesh’s offense this year, and USF is going up against the nation’s 111th-ranked scoring defense this weekend at Raymond James.
South Florida’s offensive drives often occur in warp speed, and if the Bulls are hitting on big plays, it will counteract Rice’s attempt to consume the clock through a run-oriented strategy. Then when the Bulls are on defense, they present the appropriate level of physicality to sniff out the run game, and their 128th-ranked passing defense won’t be put to the test as much. South Florida wins convincingly.
Prediction: South Florida 48, Rice 14
