The Pittsburgh Steelers will be looking to get to 5-2 on the season when they face the New Orleans in Paris on Sunday. That 5-2 number is a huge one, as 80 percent of teams that start 5-2 have made the playoffs since the league expanded the playoff field to 14 teams, per Zach Smith. That number drops to 57 percent for teams that are 4-3.
A Steelers win would also put them in prime position to head into their Week 9 bye week atop the AFC North, as they will face the Cleveland Browns in Pittsburgh in Week 8.
But first, they have to take care of business in France against the 2-4 Saints. Here are the keys to victory for Week 7.
Run the ball a ton
The Steelers are good at running the ball. Since Week 3, they are fourth in the league in EPA per rush, per Sumer Sports. However, despite being so good when they run, they are only running on 32.8 percent of snaps, which is second to last in the league. They throw the ball on just over 67 percent of snaps – the second most in the league. The Saints’ defense is the worst unit in the NFL in EPA per rush, and they are allowing the third-most rushing yards per game. Don’t make this a game where you spread the ball out – pound the ball with Jaylen Warren and control the clock.
Find a way to succeed vs. single-high coverage
No quarterback in the NFL has faced more single-high looks than Aaron Rodgers, and no one has a lower EPA per play when facing single-high coverage than Aaron Rodgers (min. 25 dropbacks). The Saints show single-high at the second-highest rate in the NFL, behind only the Browns. Plays over the middle will be open, the Steelers just need to be able to make them.
Win the battle on third down
In many metrics, the Steelers are the NFL’s worst team on third down. They rank last in EPA and success rate, and are 28th in third-down conversions. And it’s not as if they are at the bottom of the league in terms of how long their average third down is. Per Sumer Sports, their average third down distance is 6.96 yards, which is 13th in the NFL. For comparison, the Philadelphia Eagles average third-down is a league-high 8.37 yards. The Saints’ defense ranks 24th in success rate on third down, so if there was a week to get their third-down woes turned around, it’s this week.
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