The Miami Dolphins face the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday to open the 2026 NFL season. The Dolphins are expected to struggle this year, with most predictions ranging from an 0-17 season to somewhere around three or four wins. Will Miami be that bad of a team as they reset the franchise with an eye toward consistent winning in the future?
Everything starts with Sunday’s game. Miami enters the weekend as 3-point underdog, which might be a little closer than anticipated for a team that is expected to struggle.
The Raiders are similar to Miami in they are resetting their team with a new head coach and a systematic change, which does explain the spread to some degree and may make this week the closest spread the Dolphins have early this year.
Here are some predictions for Sunday’s game:
All odds provides by FanDuel Sportsbook.
Dolphins (+3) at Raiders
If Miami is going to find early success this year, they have to get off to a fast start against the Raiders. There are a lot of unknowns for the Dolphins, including reliance on younger, unproven players on the roster, a first-time head coach with a new defensive system being established, a first-time full-time starter at quarterback, and an offense trying to modify previous elements into a system run under a new offensive coordinator. A lot has to come together for Miami, and it has to do it quickly.
The three-point spread indicates FanDuel sees these two teams about equal, with Las Vegas receiving the home field advantage bump. The Dolphins only used their starting offense for one series in the preseason and did not show anything but their basic plays. The playbook may not be fully open, given how many younger players the team has and not wanting to overwhelm them, but Miami should have an attack that they have not shown yet. Running back De’Von Achane will be the focus of the Dolphins’ offense, but they have pieces that can alleviate some of the pressure on him, and quarterback Malik Willis has the dual-threat ability to run on any play, adding a complexity to Miami’s offense that has not been present the last several seasons.
The Dolphins may be underdogs, but I will have them come away with the upset win here.
Prop Bets
De’Von Achane rushing yards: 68.5
Over: -114
Under: -114
This feels like an easy over in Week 1. The Dolphins are going to run Achane down the throats of the Raiders to see if they can stop him. Until they do, he is going to keep attacking. Achane should have enough carries to top 100 yards this week, even if Las Vegas tries to stack the box against him.
Malik Willis passing touchdowns: 0.5
Over : -215
Under: +158
This feels like another easy over. Assuming the Dolphins’ offense has any success on Sunday, Willis should be in position to throw a touchdown pass. I could see a short pass in the flat to Achane or a pass in the middle of the end zone to tight end Greg Dulcich as possibilities. If this were 1.5 touchdown passes, I probably would go under, but I think Willis has one touchdown pass in his Dolphins debut.
Caleb Douglas receptions: 2.5
Over: +120
Under: -160
I might have to go under here. How the Dolphins balance their wide receiver corps, with Douglas, Malik Washington, and Chris Bell all factoring into the passing attack along with Achane and Dulcich, we will all have to wait to see. Douglas could have a monster day, especially if the Raiders sell out against the run and Willis can get quick passes out to the receivers, or he could have a quiet start to his NFL career. I think it is more likely it is a quiet start, but we will see on Sunday.
Dolphins’ first drive result
Punt: -125
Field goal attempt: +370
Touchdown: +440
Any other: +500
I am going to go with the favorite in this group and think Miami punts on their opening drive. Of course that is not ideal, and they were able to march down the field fairly effectively in their one preseason drive, but with the number of rookies starting and the emotions of the first game of the season, I think they press to hard on their opening drive and have to punt. Hopefully it will get better after that.
