After an exciting four-team battle for seeding in the Western Conference throughout the second half of the season, all but two teams are locked into their spot playoff spots heading into the final day.
Results on Friday, namely Minnesota beating Houston, means that all that is up for grabs on Sunday is the No. 3 seed between the Lakers and Nuggets.
The Wolves will be the No. 6 seed and the Rockets will be the No. 5 seed, the latter only being able to tie LA’s record on the final day with the purple
and gold holding the tiebreaker. At the top, OKC and San Antonio will be the No. 1 and No. 2 seed, respectively.
That leaves the No. 3 seed Denver (53-28) and the No. 4 seed Los Angeles (52-29) as the only sides that can end the day in a different spot than where they started. That also makes it pretty simple to lay out the scenarios for where the two teams can finish.
Let’s dive into them.
Lakers win, Nuggets win
If both teams win, then it’s simple math. The Lakers would finish one game behind the Nuggets and in the No. 4 seed.
LA plays the Jazz, who are tied for the fourth-best in the draft lottery. That means they certainly are going to end the season as they navigated it: by tanking.
On the flip side, the Nuggets play the Spurs, who are likely to rest their starters and key rotation players, with nothing at stake for either team. That being said, Denver has already done some weird things this weekend, resting all of its starters against the Thunder on Friday with far more uncertainty in the playoff seeding.
If this scenario plays out, the Lakers would play the Rockets and the Nuggets would play the Wolves.
Lakers win, Nuggets lose
If Denver loses to what will likely be the skeleton Spurs while the Lakers beat the tanking Jazz, that means LA jumps to the No. 3 seed and Denver falls to No. 4.
Outside of being able to laugh at the Nuggets for still finishing above them in the standings, it would set up a familiar, if not difficult, playoff match-up with the Wolves. While Minnesota has limped to the finish, figuratively and literally, they still will likely have Anthony Edwards and much of the same team that smacked around a healthier version of LA last year.
Denver, meanwhile, would face the Rockets in the first round with a second-round series against the Thunder looming for the winner.
Lakers lose
If the Lakers lose, it matters not what the Nuggets do as LA would finish in the fourth seed and face the Rockets. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that the purple and gold opt to rest many of it’s own key players to avoid any more injuries this season and settle into the fourth seed.
In that case, they would face a Houston team that has had a rocky season, even though it’s ending strong. The Rockets had their eight-game win streak snapped on Friday by Minnesota. It’s not been smooth sailing in Kevin Durant’s first season with the Rockets and the team has looked on the brink of a meltdown multiple times, setting up an intriguing potential upset bid for the Lakers in the first round.
You can follow Jacob on Twitter at @JacobRude or on Bluesky at @jacobrude.bsky.social.
