The Miami Hurricanes (11-2) will face the Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1) in the Cotton Bowl on December 31st at 7:30pm on ESPN. The Buckeyes are a 70% favorite on the ESPN matchup predictor and a 9.5 point favorite per Las Vegas.
The teams are tied 2-2 all-time in the matchup with Miami having the recent advantage from 2011. Ryan Day is 6-4 in post-season action as head coach including a 4-0 run through the College Football Playoff National Championship last season.
The Doppler
Bill Connelly has updated the SP+ after
round one of the playoffs and Ohio State is no.1 in the country. The Buckeyes are 11th on offense, 1st on defense and 64th in kicking. The Hurricanes are 9th overall, 22nd on offense, 8th on defense, and 38th in kicking.
On money downs, Ohio State’s offense is 2nd in FBS on 3rd down with a 53% clip and 28th on 4th downs converting 62.5% of the time. Miami is 27th on 3rd down converting 45% of their attempts and 23rd on 4th down while converting 65% of the time.
The Bryce Fitzgerald Turnover Margin Award goes to Miami. The ‘Canes are +0.8 which is good for 12th in the country. OSU is 57th in FBS at +0.2.
OSU is penalized less than Miami. The Buckeyes are 21st in FBS with only 42 penalty yards per game. Miami is 105th with 61 yards in flags per game.
On defensive money downs, OSU is 6th in the country in 3rd down defense allowing only 29.5% of their 3rd downs to be converted. Miami is 16th while allowing only 32.5%. This is going to be a tough game to pick up a 3rd down in for either team.
OSU PK Jayden Fielding is 16-of-19 on FG attempts this season and hasn’t missed a PAT since the 2023 season. Fielding is known for missing the game tying FG vs. Indiana in ‘25, and missing two kicks vs. Michigan in ‘24.
The Film
The Indiana Hoosiers managed to beat the OSU Buckeyes in the Big Ten Championship Game 13-10. Indiana (13-0) is the 2nd best team per the SP+, with the 6th ranked offense and 2nd ranked defense.
Indiana finished 7-of-14 on money downs while OSU was held to just 4-of-13. Both teams turned the ball over on an interception in a defensive struggle. IU was flagged for 49-yards in penalties while OSU was hit with only 20-yards on two calls.
Both kickers missed a FG attempt but Indiana’s Nico Radicic made two FG’s while Fielding only made one as the difference maker in Indianapolis.
The OSU OFFENSE
Julian Sayin finished with one TD, one INT and 8.9 yards per pass attempt. Sayin was sacked five times by IU’s defense.
The Buckeyes RB Bo Jackson averaged 4.9 yards per carry with a 20-yard long. He’s a thumper like Mark Fletcher Jr at 220 pounds. The Hoosiers logged nine TFL’s vs. the Buckeyes O-Line.
Sayin found seven different receivers with three hitting double-digit yards per catch marks. Of course Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate got theres vs. IU. Smith averaged 18 yards per catch and Tate caught OSU’s only TD.
Above– Sayin throws this into double coverage. IU has elite ball skills and the safety jumps this ball.
Above– Sayin hits his drop, the OT is taught to wall a guy and ride him up field. That means the QB has to step up into the pocket, a clean pocket at that. When QB’s stay deep they’re sitting ducks. Bryce Young had a terrible habit of not only staying deep but floating back… at least Sayin doesn’t do that.
Above– There’s no time to double back, escape forward and fast. Sayin can be sacked and does hold the ball a long time this could be Mesidor and Bain time to eat.
Above– Sayin doesn’t take his check down. Instead he chooses to extend the play.
Above– When QB’s roll there’s typically a ‘boot player’ a LB assigned to the Q. Too many teams have safeties coming off their man to play the scramble. Tate winds up alone in the end zone. Space creates time and time allows for mistakes from a defense.
Above– I drew that red line in there. That’s the ‘hard deck.’ IU had all four DB’s above it and yet Sayin and Smith still go deep off the PA fake.
Above– Smith still beats his man by almost 5-yards… insane ability. Sayin under throws him and that allows the defense to recover enough to stop a TD here.
Above– This turns into a big run and looks like a busted play. That’s what patience and vision get you as a RB.
Above– You can see the RB split through the backside A-Gap. Reminds me of those old Clemson teams with Etienne and Spiller at RB.
Above– Sayin has him for the go-ahead TD and the DB breaks it up. You have to throw him open. Ball placement is key against top flight defenses you can’t get away with the same throws you do against Rutgers or Purdue.
Above– There’s the ball where it almost looks like it’s thrown to IU vs. OSU. That’s how you lose by 3 and only score one TD with Jackson, Tate, Smith and Brandon Innis on offense.
The OSU DEFENSE
Heisman Trophy winning QB Fernando Mendoza threw one TD and one INT against OSU’s defense on 9.7 yards per attempt. Mendoza was sacked three times by the Buckeyes defense.
Indiana’s Kaelon Black and Roman Hemby averaged 4.3 and 4.0 yards per carry, respectively. OSU logged four TFL’s against IU’s O-Line.
Mendoza found six different receivers with five hitting the double-digit yards per catch mark. Charlie Becker led the way with 21 yards per catch and Elijah Sarratt caught the Hoosiers only TD.
OSU DE Caden Curry logged three TFL’s, two sacks and a PBU against Indiana.
Above– Three defenders in the area and the WR still gets a clean release for a drag route. Crossers are tough for teams that want to play man coverage.
Above– This looked like a sure fire TD and OSU has some ball skills at DB. Carson Beck can’t under throw CJ Daniels on his one shot for a big shot!
Above– The ‘chip’ isn’t going to work against Curry. He breaks through this chip for a hard fought sack. He reminds me of Bain in a lot of ways and grit is surely one.
Above– I absolutely hate the boundary “now” screen. Shannon Dawson, wake up, OSU is going to pick 6 one of these. Even if the other two DB’s are ‘off’ they’re still a 3over3 look. To the field there’s more room to work. Also this WR needs to come back to the ball here to make the motion guy’s kick out easier to do.
Above– Pullers with kick and wrap. Sometimes the first guy has to help log penetration but once the RB cuts up he has a huge lane.
Above– This is where Girard Pringle can rip a TD that Fletcher will be caught on. Love Fletcher but he doesn’t have 5th gear.
Above– The flat receiver gets open and Mendoza delivers the ball right on time and throws him open. He takes a huge hit but delivers. Elija Lofton needs to be used on these type of plays.
Above– When everything is an option route you lose anticipation because you’re never sure if they’re going to push deep or break off. He should throw the ball now but he has to wait and then takes a sack. Sometimes this is where the Josh Heupel high school offense works to the QB’s advantage.
Above– Shallow cross with a switch involved? Nice. One WR carries deep to pull the safety and all the other WR has to do is work to the seam enough to beat the CB who was playing outside leverage.
Above– The winning play (in the 3rd quarter but still) that beats OSU is slot fade. Technically the route doesn’t even beat him, it’s the quick decision.
Above– The back shoulder flip on slot fade is genius. Get your eyes and belt buckle back to the football.
The Wrap
Canyonero Keys to Victory main theme is to own the road. Don’t play scared, timid, or tight. Drive right down the damn middle and play the way you’ve played the last five or so games of the season. Come right at OSU and play loose.
OSU has the clear ‘experience’ advantage having won four playoff games a year ago including the National Championship Game against Notre Dame. Sayin was a backup but on the team while Smith, Tate, Brandon Innis, Downs and Curry were key contributors.
OSU might not have Quinshon Judkins, Will Howard, TreVeyon Henderson, or Emeka Egbuka but it’s OSU- they’re clearly built to reload under Ryan Day. The Buckeyes are considered to be the best team in the country per SP+ and Miami will have to play a nearly perfect ball game in order to beat them in Dallas. I’ll post the individual keys and score prediction in part 2 of the series.
