Another series win is in the books, and there’s no doubt the AL Central leaders would like to notch another one before heading into a soon-to-be-rare off day later this week.
Tonight, there’s just one problem with that. His name is Jacob deGrom.
deGrom is still an elite pitcher, but at age 38 he’s not the unstoppable force that he was into the early part of this decade. His 3.49 ERA in 2026 is still 11% better than league average, but that would be handily the worst mark of his professional career.
That makes for a Hall of Fame resumé, but deGrom has been decidedly hittable as of late. He’s allowed exactly two earned runs in four of his last five starts, with a six-run blowup being the exception. He’s still liable to rattle off seven shutout innings at any given time, but his fearsomeness is diminished all the same.
Whether Sox hitters can continue the trend is another story. Today’s lineup is fully stocked with lefties, with Miguel Vargas being the exception. While he’s generally taken a slider-heavy approach as of late, deGrom still leads with the four-seamer against lefties. Though he’s not routinely pumping 100 mph anymore, he still sits a sizzling 97 mph.
Sox lefties have been middle-of-the-road against high-velocity fastballs by most metrics, but they’re almost dead last in whiffs, coming up empty on 30% of their swings against four-seamers at 96 mph or faster. This game could hinge on whether they can take advantage of mistakes deGrom may make with his breaking balls. Sox lefties are better against middle-of-the-road against sliders of 90+ mph, which the righty still possesses, but deGrom has allowed three doubles and homer on the pitch, as well as two more longballs on his curveball, which lefties have smashed this year. If Sox hitters can capitalize on mistakes, they can probably scratch through enough runs to win. If they don’t, with this lineup deGrom may wind up with a line like the one Shane Bieber trotted out last weekend.
Among those hitters, only Randal Grichuk and Andrew Benintendi have more than a pocketful of ABs against deGrom. Benintendi is 0-for-8, while Grichuk has gone deep twice in 13 trips to the plate against the 2018-19 NL Cy Young winner. Guess which one is in the lineup tonight.
Nonetheless, with Erick Fedde on the hill, the Sox are going to need some runs, and this is more or less the best lineup they’re capable of fielding at the moment. With deGrom being the exact kind of pitcher they’d be likely to face in Game 1 or 2 of a playoff series a few months from now, this one should be a good test of how ready for prime time the White Sox are against competition in roughly the same place as they are.
Fedde gets his first start sans opener in three weeks, and for just the third time in his last 11 appearances. That may be because the Rangers have one of the more righty-heavy lineups in the league right now, with most of their key hitters — Wyatt Langford, Josh Jung, Ezequiel Durán and slugging rookie Justin Foscue — hitting from the right side with no viable replacement on the bench. With Corey Seager injured and Evan Carter struggling, the Sox bullpen should be able to navigate through to the end of the game if Fedde can keep them in it long enough to grab a lead.
This is a lineup with Nicky Lopez in it, in the year 2026. I’ll leave it at that.
There’s also an old friend to see, at the very least. It’s been a solid bounce-back season for Jake Burger down in the Lone Star State, putting up a 107 OPS+ and slugging his 100th career home run last month, an outcome that would have seemed quite remarkable just a few short years ago.
We’re back on the regular airwaves today, with first pitch coming at 7:05 p.m. CT and standard broadcasts on CHSN (TV) and ESPN 1000 AM (radio). We’ll see you there!
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